599
FXUS65 KREV 130843
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
143 AM PDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible today and
Tuesday with best chances in the Sierra. Otherwise, this week will
feature well above average temperatures and dry conditions before
cooler weather and increased shower chances return this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The calendar might say mid-May, but the weather this week will be
more typical of early summer as daytime highs reach the 70s and 80s
for Sierra communities and much of western Nevada, respectively. In
fact, lowest western Nevada locales such as Reno, Fallon, and
Lovelock have a 40-60% chance of reaching 90F on Thursday and
Friday! Be sure to stay hydrated this week, limit strenuous outdoor
activities, and prepare for area streams to be running fast and cold
due to increased snowmelt.

This afternoon will feature a 30-40% chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the Sierra south of US-50 and portions of
Douglas, Lyon, and Mineral counties. Latest HREF/CAM guidance hint
at a few showers and perhaps a brief thunderstorm extending as far
northward as the I-80 corridor (15-20% chance), especially along the
Pine Nut Mtns/Virgina Range. Timing of convection will begin around
12-1 PM PDT and may continue until 7-8 PM PDT before tapering off.
Any mature thunderstorm will be capable of brief downpours, small
hail, gusty outflow winds, and occasional cloud-to-ground lightning.
Chances of showers and storms return Tuesday afternoon for a similar
area as today, although easterly steering flow will direct storms
into the west side of the Sierra crest.

The remainder of the week will be dry amid steady warming as an
eastern Pacific high amplifies as it drifts towards the West Coast.
The 00Z suite of ensembles continue to advertise the potential of
cooler weather and increased shower chances this weekend and beyond
as western troughing develops.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

The primary concern will be afternoon showers and thunderstorms for
Sierra and western Nevada terminals. Chances of thunderstorms within
10 miles of KTRK/KTVL/KMMH reach 20-30% between 21-03z this
afternoon. KRNO/KCXP/KMEV terminals have a 10-20% chance during the
same period. Gusty erratic winds, reduced CIGS/VIS, and occasional
lightning will be the main hazards with afternoon convection.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon,
mainly just for Sierra terminals. The rest of the week will be dry
and very warm, lending to the potential of a lower-end density
altitude concern Thursday and Friday.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$