262
FXUS63 KEAX 030833
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
333 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Seasonable heat and humidity into/through next week.
  - High temperatures mainly in the mid 80s to low 90s
  - Heat Index values mainly in the 90s.

* 4th of July/Independence Day: General expectation for scattered
  shower/storm chances to hold off until overnight across much of
  the area.

* Shower/storm chances overspread the region overnight Friday and
  through much of the weekend.
  - Risk for strong/severe storms is low at this point in time.

* Unsettled/uncertain pattern into next week, keep shower/storm
  chances within the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

No substantial changes in the going forecast with this update, but
given the pattern, a nuanced item to be mindful of as we head into
the Independence Day/4th of July holiday. Read on for that nuance...

Quiet conditions prevailed over the area overnight and early this
morning, underneath mostly clear to clear skies. Similar to previous
nights, a few scattered patches of fog, but primarily relegated to
river valleys and other low-lying prone areas. Weak southerly flow
no entrenched over the area, allowing slow/gradual moisture return
in the lowest levels of the atmosphere.

Today, surface high gradually drifts further E/SE, continuing the
overspread of S/SW winds and gradual moisture return. With core of
the EML/thermal ridge remaining displaced westward, high
temperatures not too different than yesterday, albeit likely a
couple degrees warmer into the upper 80s and low 90s. In conjunction
with a bit more moisture in place, heat index values too should
climb a couple of degrees into the mid 90s for many. And urban heat
island may see Heat Index values creep into the upper 90s.

For Friday/Independence Day, somewhat of a rinse and repeat to
Thursday as it pertains to temperature and heat index, but of course
this is where the nuance is, which may unfortunately deviate the
forecast. Currently, prevailing forecast and majority of guidance
(synoptic and higher res and CAMs) suggests a dry day and evening
across the area. Especially as you work eastward across Missouri.
That said, with nominally increased moisture, there are a few pieces
of guidance (HREF/CAMs) that suggest the potential for some widely
scattered air mass type thunderstorm activity. That does raise a bit
of an eyebrow, eh? Taking a little deeper look, it does look to be
quite a low-probability event given lack of broad forcing
(underneath upper ridge and some surface ridge influence remains),
no notable surface convergence (uniform southerly flow),
inversion/capping layer around 700mb (not the strongest tho, ~10-11
deg C), etc. And depending on how deep we mix, the moist layer is
not terribly deep and may actually see dew points at the surface
decrease. There just seems to be a lot working against this possible
air mass scenario. But, would be remiss not to mention the potential
given the plethora of outdoor activities and forecast message last
couple/few days largely being dry. For now, have left NBM PoPs dry,
because too do not think this is likely, but do not be surprised if
an introduction of low-end PoPs within the 18z-00z (1pm-7pm LT) time
frame Friday is seen later today if the signal in guidance remains.

Late overnight Friday and into the weekend, scattered storm
opportunities increase and overspread the area in response to
continued northward advection of Gulf moisture and arrival of better
forcing mechanisms. Some LLJ/isentropic induced activity may be seen
overnight Friday into early Saturday, but more widespread (but
probably still scattered in nature) may hold off until the arrival
of mid-upper shortwave trough and its broader scale lift during the
daytime Saturday. This activity should slowly progress eastward
across the area Saturday/Saturday night, and ahead of a weak surface
boundary that will approach from the NW. While mid-upper level
support lift begins to depart Sunday PM, lingering/lagging surface
boundary will continue to act as a potential focus for additional
shower/storm activity. Poor thermal and vertical wind profiles
suggest not much more than generic thunder with activity on
Saturday. Come Sunday, potential for a few stronger storms may be
present with point soundings depicting cooling mid levels (more
CAPE) and dry profiles (enhanced down draft potential). Wind may be
the only tangible threat with vertical wind profiles incredibly
weak.

Into the work week, very unsettled/uncertain pattern when it comes
to precipitation potential as multiple compact shortwaves ride
through the zonal to weakly NW flow pattern. This results in
seemingly persistent lower end (20-40%) PoPs within the NBM load. No
confidence in any ability to hone PoPs at this time, especially
given the easy bust potential of this pattern (and the pattern of
late in general). Temperatures, when not directly affect by
precipitation, appear to remain seasonable in the mid 80s to lower
90s along with dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s. This too would
keep heat index values within the 90s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Quiet, VFR conditions expected to prevail across the TAF sites
through this period. S/SW winds to around 10 kts during daytime,
along with FEW/SCT060 fair weather CU may blossom over the sites
and wider area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis