Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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328 FXUS63 KDMX 141141 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 641 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and non-severe isolated storms are expected southeast today, eventually diminishing by late today. - Lingering impacts into today from Canadian wildfire smoke filtering south into the area. - Additional showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday. Severe risk is low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Slow moving upper low continues to impact the state in the short term with clouds and scattered showers/isolated storms across the southeast early this morning. These linger in the southeast during the day although lift decreases with the gradual departure of the low toward the lower Ohio River valley. This should decrease the coverage and intensity into the afternoon with the precipitation ending this evening in the far south. Meanwhile, on the north and west periphery of the system some sunshine is expected today including portions of the west and north where the warmest temperatures are expected. Some lingering impacts from the Canadian wildfire smoke are expected today, mainly from health impacts and an AQA remains in effect during the day into this evening. Relatively quiet conditions are forecast overnight with light winds as weak ridging slides across the state. Some patchy fog may develop across the southeast although some scattered cloudiness may limit this potential. A shortwave passes from the Plains into the Midwest on Wednesday into Wednesday night with an associated boundary. Overall timing has slowed with this system with much of Wednesday appearing to have little threat for precipitation until more towards the evening. Weak to moderate instability builds across the west but shear is rather paltry, therefore the severe threat appears somewhat limited at this time. This boundary only slowly progresses through the state and redevelopment by Thursday afternoon is possible across the southeast prior to the departure of the front. Shear continues to be somewhat limited despite some modest instability which once again should keep the severe threat relatively low during this time. The forecast after this time becomes a bit more uncertain given increasing disparity among the medium range models. Both GFS and Euro have somewhat fast westerlies across the northern United States but with some differences with the placement and timing of shortwaves within the flow. Overall, with the jet stream north of the state this weekend, temperatures are expected to climb above normal, particularly on Saturday. Thereafter, the aforementioned uncertainty begins to take over with regards to PoPs and temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 MVFR to local IFR conditions are expected in the southeast today with scattered showers and isolated storms. VFR conditions are expected in the north and west. Winds increase from the northeast today and then diminish into tonight. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cogil AVIATION...Cogil