655
FXUS64 KBMX 181908
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
208 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1102 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024

As has been the case the past 24 to 36 hours, the heaviest rain
and convective activity has remained well to our south over the
Gulf Coast region. A quasi-stationary boundary stretching from
west to east along a New Orleans to Mobile to Dothan line
continues to remain the focus for shower and storm development.
Southwesterly deep layer shear across the atmospheric profile and
plenty of tropical moisture will keep strong to severe storms and
flash flood potential across the Florida Panhandle and far
southeastern Alabama through the morning.

Meanwhile, a surface low is spinning close to Memphis helping to
trigger scattered to numerous showers and storms as cooler air
works in aloft. We should continue to see storm development as we
go through the remainder of the day, spreading southeastward with
time. Areas along and north of the I-20 corridor will see the best
coverage of showers and storms with sunshine starting to make an
appearance following low clouds and fog early this morning. As low
level instability increases, we`ll see enough shear aloft (60kts
at 500mb) with steep lapse rates to support strong to isolated
severe storms. With unidirectional shear profiles, isolated
damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the hazards this
afternoon through the early evening hours. Storms are expected to
decrease in coverage with the loss of daytime heating during the
evening hours tonight as the 500mb trough axis pushes off into
Georgia.

We`ll have to keep an eye on the potential for fog and low stratus
development overnight tonight. High-res guidance is hinting that
we may get enough clearing with calm winds for the development of
fog between midnight tonight and sunrise Sunday morning. I`ve
added in patchy fog in the forecast to trend that direction, but
more widespread fog may need to be added in the next forecast
update. Sunday will feature much drier conditions with northerly
flow at 700mb. A surface ridge over the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas
will build southwestward by Sunday afternoon. What appears to be
a "back door" surface boundary will creep westward into our far
eastern counties, with some upper level shortwave energy to work
with. A few isolated showers and perhaps a storm can`t be ruled
out across the far east as a result. Otherwise, everyone else will
be dry and warm as upper heights begin to rise. Mid to upper 80s
will be common for highs by Sunday afternoon.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024

Central Alabama will transition into a drier and warmer pattern
next week as an upper ridge builds across the Central Gulf Coast
region. Highs will reach the upper 80s to near 90 Tuesday and
Wednesday. A northern stream short wave trough will push a weak
cold front to near the Al/TN state line on Thursday. This will
increase rain chances across north Alabama Thursday and Friday,
with better chances for rain on Friday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024

Lower ceilings will continue to mix out between 16 and 18z, with
most terminals observing VFR conditions through the afternoon.
SHRA/TSRA development is expected to impact northern terminals
between 18z and 01z, with less coverage expected at MGM and TOI.
Amendments can be expected this afternoon, with rapid reductions
in visibility due to heavy rains along with variably gusty winds
within thunderstorms. SHRA/TSRA will decrease in coverage during
the evening hours between 03z and 06z. Low clouds and/or fog is
then expected to develop areawide after 09z with IFR ceilings.
Lower ceilings and fog should mix out between 13z and 15z Sunday
morning with VFR conditions expected through 18z Sunday.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue across
Central Alabama through the evening hours, mainly south of I-20
after sunset. Areas of fog after midnight due to rain and moist
low level conditions. A slight chance of storms across the far
eastern counties on Sunday. Min RH values on Sunday 50-55 percent.
Light 20ft winds overnight become north 4-6 mph on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  85  61  85 /  40  20   0   0
Anniston    62  84  62  85 /  50  20   0   0
Birmingham  63  85  65  86 /  40  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  64  87  65  88 /  30   0   0   0
Calera      64  85  65  85 /  40  10   0   0
Auburn      64  82  64  82 /  50  20   0   0
Montgomery  65  85  65  85 /  50  10   0   0
Troy        65  84  64  85 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...56