293
AXNT20 KNHC 100548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jul 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 19.5W from 04N-19N, moving west
at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from
08-13N between the coast of Africa and 20W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 37W, from 05N-18N, moving west
at around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are observed near the axis
of this wave.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 65W from 20N to northern
Venezuela, moving west at around 10 kt. No significant convection
is noted with this wave.

A tropical wave has been repositioned to near 81W from 07-22N,
and is moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is seen in the far SW Caribbean, and also from 14-17N between
80-85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, then continues
to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to 05N53W. Other than the
convection mentioned above in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate convection is observed from 06-09N between 23-30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1019 mb high is centered over the north-central Gulf near
27N89W. Surface troughs are analyzed in three locations: one over
the east coast of Mexico, one emerging from the Yucatan Peninsula
into the Bay of Campeche, and another extending off the SW FL
coast. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the Bay of
Campeche trough and the SW FL trough. Convergent surface winds are
also leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in
the central Gulf, as well as in the Florida Straits. This overall
pattern otherwise is supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes
across the Gulf with slight seas, with the exception of the Bay
of Campeche where winds are locally moderate to fresh.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the
basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong northeast to
east winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan
Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland
daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on convection associated
with the tropical waves moving through the basin.

Aside from the convection associated with tropical waves, some
scattered moderate convection is ongoing over coastal portions of
Hispaniola, Cuba, and Honduras this evening. A strong Bermuda
High and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean continue to generate
a tight pressure gradient that is resulting in fresh to strong E
winds in the central to SW Caribbean with seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate
to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean,
while moderate or lighter winds are elsewhere with slight seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure and relatively lower pressure in Colombian will continue
to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across
the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to
strong east winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at
night, through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh winds and
moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean, while gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail
elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered thunderstorms are active along a trough over the central
and northern Bahamas, reaching to the northeast of the Bahamas to
31N72W. Elsewhere the entire subtropical waters are under the
influence of the Bermuda- Azores High, which is supporting
moderate to fresh E winds from 10-25N between 35-75W, except for
fresh to strong E winds north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.
Moderate or weaker winds prevail across the remainder of the
Atlantic waters. Seas are 4-7 ft between 35-75W, and 3-5 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging extending
westward across central Florida will shift southward through Thu,
then begin to lift back N afterward. The related pressure gradient
will support gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh to strong
east to southeast winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola
through Sat and fresh winds Sun and moderate to fresh winds early
next week.

$$
Adams