324
ACUS03 KWNS 120640
SWODY3
SPC AC 120639

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the northern Plains Monday evening.

...Discussion...

Generally low-amplitude west/northwest flow will spread across the
northern tier of the U.S. on Monday, confining any enhanced
deep-layer flow to the north-central states. Elsewhere, a weak
deep-layer flow regime will prevail within modest upper ridging
across the Southeast and West. A weak upper low may persist over the
southern Plains/Ozark Plateau vicinity.

A seasonally moist airmass with pockets of moderate instability will
support scattered convection from the Plains to the Eastern
Seaboard. However, lack of forcing and weak deep-layer flow will
limit severe potential across much of the country. The exception may
be across parts of the northern Plains.

A surface low is forecast to develop across the northern High Plains
in response to weak height falls during the evening/overnight. A
cold front will develop south across parts of the Dakotas while a
surface trough extends south across the northern High Plains. These
boundaries could become a focus for isolated thunderstorm
development during the late afternoon/evening. Steep lapse rates,
moderate instability and sufficient shear should support a few
organized cells capable of producing strong/severe wind gusts and
perhaps isolated hail.

..Leitman.. 07/12/2025

$$