044
ACUS02 KWNS 210602
SWODY2
SPC AC 210601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO MUCH OF MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail are possible on
Saturday night across portions of Missouri and adjacent eastern
Kansas.

...Synopsis...
Weakly cyclonic/fast flow aloft will reside over the U.S. at the
start of the period, with a short-wave trough crossing the Ohio
Valley, and a second over the northwestern states.  With time, the
eastern of these two features will shift into/across the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic region.  An associated cold front will likewise
cross the Northeast, but lack of buoyancy will prevail.  A few
lightning flashes cannot be ruled out as the system crosses the
Mid-Atlantic region, but at this time, coverage appears likely to
remain below 10%

Meanwhile, the western upper system is forecast to advance
east-southeastward across the northern Intermountain region through
the day, and into the northern and central Plains through the second
half of the period.  In tandem, a developing surface cold front is
expected to shift across the Plains states overnight.
Scattered/elevated thunderstorms should develop across the Missouri
vicinity overnight, ahead of this system.

...Eastern Kansas into Missouri...
As the upper trough moves into/across the Plains, a strong southerly
low-level jet is forecast over the Upper Mississippi Valley
vicinity.  Meanwhile, a secondary southwesterly branch of the
low-level jet is expected to evolve across Oklahoma/Missouri by late
evening.  Warm/moist advection atop a stable boundary layer should
lead to sufficient destabilization to allow scattered convective
development, with greatest CAPE expected from northeastern Kansas
into northern and central Missouri.  Given fairly steep mid-level
lapse rates, and strong mid-level flow yielding ample shear for
updraft organization, a few of the stronger storms may become
capable of producing large hail.

..Goss.. 03/21/2025

$$