042
ACUS48 KWNS 210853
SWOD48
SPC AC 210851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models suggest that a west-to-east cold front will move slowly
southward across the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Monday/Day 4, as
an upper trough shifts slowly eastward across the eastern CONUS.
Ample instability should evolve along the front to support afternoon
storm development, but quasi-unidirectional flow with height, weak
at low levels, may hinder prospects for severe storms despite ample
mid-level flow.  At this time, while some severe risk is apparent,
potential appears too low to warrant inclusion of a risk area at
this time.

The front should continue shifting southward while weakening Days
5-6 (Tuesday and Wednesday), as weak surface high pressure settles
into the eastern states.  While thunder will be possible near the
Gulf Coast Tuesday, and lingering over Florida Thursday, severe risk
appears to be low.

Model differences begin to increase substantially beyond
Wednesday/through the end of the period.  The ECMWF depicts a
substantial mid-level short-wave trough and accompanying surface
system moving into the Plains Day 8, while quasi-zonal flow aloft is
depicted by the GFS.  As such, predictability concerns preclude
assessment of severe potential beyond Day 6.

..Goss.. 03/21/2025