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AGUS76 KRSA 122055
HMDRSA

Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
100 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026

...LINGERING SHOWERS TODAY AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
SIERRA...
...BACK TO BACK COLD LOWS EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID WEEK
GENERATING WIDESPREAD PRECIP/MOUNTAIN SNOW...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: THU PM - SUN AM)...

Forecast remains on track with no big changes in the afternoon
update. Troughing continues to move through the region this
afternoon with slight chances of scattered showers the rest of today
and isolated thunderstorms east of the Sierra. The trough will close
off into an upper low over srn CA Friday morning before exiting into
AZ in the late afternoon. A few showers possible over far srn CA at
that time, but otherwise dry conditions for Friday as a ridge
briefly builds in behind the low.

The next system is still set to approach on Saturday from the
northwest with maybe a couple initial showers over the Smith Basin
and the OR border ahead of the low during the day Saturday with
additional lighter showers expected by the evening along the nrn CA
coast. Timing remains a source of uncertainty as ensembles disagree
on when showers will initially arrive and when they will begin to
spread along the coast and inland. The one area of agreement is that
the majority of any precip for Saturday should be west of I-5.
Amounts since this morning generally went down by as little as a few
hundredths to not more than 0.10".

QPF remains 0.10-0.30" along the coast north of the Golden Gate,
less than a tenth of an inch to the south through coastal Monterey
County, and up to 0.10" or so over Shasta with light showers
creeping into the nrn Sierra. The bulk of the precip from this
system will occur in the extended period. Freezing levels to peak
Saturday across the Sierra at 7-11 kft before lowering into Sunday
to 5.5-9 kft.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: SUN AM - WED AM)...

Although the models are still not resolved in terms of the
details...the general pattern becoming rather active for the first
half of the upcoming week is in good agreement. The first issue at
hand is the onset of precip along coastal sections either late
Saturday or Sunday. The trend has been to delay things a
bit...leaving much of Saturday dry. However...there is starting to
be a settling on Sunday experiencing widespread precip across much
of CA with the best totals along coastal sections between Cape
Mendocino and Point Conception. Adjustments on Sunday were minimal
when incorporating the latest WPC QPF and 12/19Z NBM with only some
slight decreases of 0.25-inch or less along the central CA coast
down to Santa Barbara and Ventura counties.

Into Monday...the initial cold area of low pressure will begin to
kick inland in response to an upstream system moving down the west
coast out of the Gulf of Alaska. This will spread precip inland
across the entire area with the best totals still expected along
coastal areas between the Santa Cruz Mountains and the transverse
ranges of southern CA. Also...given the track of the system...the
entire Sierra will partake in moderate to heavy precip (best over
the southern Sierra). Changes from the morning were once again
rather minimal...slightly higher (0.25-inch or less) for the higher
terrain of northern/central CA...and down slightly due to slower
timing across portions of southern CA between LA and San Diego.

Day 6 (Tuesday)...will see the next wave dropping down the west
coast and then swinging inland late in the period. Some slight
timing and positioning details still to work out with the latest
models...but being this far out...all signs are pointing to another
day of widespread precip across the area. Look for the best amounts
along the length of the Sierra with good upslope conditions
throughout the day.

Freezing levels will start out with a wide range from 5500-feet to
the northwest and 12000-feet to the southeast...but drop with each
wave moving through...ushering in a cooler airmass from the
northwest. After the first disturbance moves through on
Monday...look for freezing levels to be down to 3000-feet northwest
to 7500-feet southeast. Then with the next disturbance dropping down
to about 2500-feet for much of northern CA...3500-feet for central
CA...and 4000- to 5000-feet across southern CA. This cooler air
advects over NV with 3500- to 5500-feet freezing levels by early
Wednesday.


QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php



AS/DRK

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