387
FNUS72 KMLB 181943
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Patrick Fire...USFWS
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
343 PM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1500 EDT on March 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Good afternoon. Very sensitive fire weather conditions will
continue through this evening. Dry and breezy this afternoon with
north to northeast winds of 15-20 mph and gusty. The slight
onshore wind component will keep min RH values above critical
levels, with Min RH values dropping to around 40 percent. Because
of this, while it is still a fire sensitive day, conditions for a
Red Flag Warning are not currently being met. Northeast winds will
gradually decrease this evening, with speeds around 10 mph or
less.

Wednesday, dry air will continue to linger over the burn site,
producing fire sensitive weather once again. Min RH values are
forecast to drop to 30-40 percent, however, winds will not be as
breezy as they were today. Light and variable in the morning will
become east to southeast in the afternoon, with speeds remaining
below 10 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 10 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 15 to 16 mph.

TIME (EDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   4   5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............71  71  71
RH..............42  42  42
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..12  12  10
20 FT wind gust.16  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.9 2.9 2.7
Transp wind dir.N   N   N
Transp wind spd.16  15  15

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 9 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 15 mph decreasing to 3 to 5 mph
                    overnight.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........3   5   3   3   3   7   7   6   7   8   9   9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............69  67  63  60  59  58  57  56  55  54  54  53
RH..............47  52  62  69  75  75  80  80  86  86  90  93
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..9   7   6   5   3   3   3   2   1   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.13  10  9   7   7   5       3   3           3
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 2.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW
Transp wind spd.15  13  10  9   8   6   6   5   3   5   5   5

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL increasing to 3100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 3 to 6 mph shifting to the east 5 to 7
                    mph late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........10  11  14  8   6   4   5   5   4   5   5   4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............54  53  53  59  66  71  74  76  77  77  78  76
RH..............86  89  89  78  65  53  44  40  37  37  36  39
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  N   NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   2   3   5   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.3   3   3   3   3   5   6   6   7   7   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.2 2.0 2.4 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.4 2.1
Transp wind dir.NW  N   NW  NW  N   NE  NE  E   E   E   E   SE
Transp wind spd.5   6   5   3   5   3   5   3   5   5   6   7

$$
Forecaster...Watson
Requested by...Sam Ashbaugh
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2506909.1/MLB
.DELDT 03/18/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL samuel_ashbaugh@fws.gov