167
FNUS71 KBOX 182148
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for Newman Burn...RCFD
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
548 PM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 EDT on March 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Forecast for tonight near the Newman prescribed burn location will
feature decreasing sky cover toward mostly clear skies and a light
northerly wind around 5 mph. Good recovery in relative humidities
is expected to around 80 percent tonight as temperatures drop to
around 30 degrees. A temperature inversion is likely to develop
overnight tonight, which will limit mixing into a part of
Wednesday morning.

For Wednesday, we expect mostly sunny and dry weather to prevail
for most of the daytime hours. The temperature inversion from
overnight is likely to continue until mid to late Wednesday
morning, which will keep the smoke plume to within a few hundred
feet of the ground, with weak northeast transport winds tilting
the smoke toward the south-southwest. Even into the afternoon,
mixing heights will be on the shallow side with not much
additional loft expected. Lowest relative humidities tomorrow will
be around 30 to 35 percent near the prescribed burn site, with
temperatures reaching into the upper 50s to near 60.

Although winds Wednesday will be northerly to northeast around 10
mph, a windshift towards the east to east-southeast is expected
to take place around sundown, along with an increase in cloud
cover, rising humidity levels and a shrinking mixing depth. Thus
by late Wednesday afternoon and especially after sundown into the
evening, expect smoke to begin to shift towards the west or west-
northwest and again be trapped to within a few hundred feet of the
ground.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 31.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Dewpoint............26.
Min apparent temp...26.
Surface winds (mph).North winds 5 to 6 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2000 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................3.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........5   4   6   9   4   4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............36  35  34  34  33  32
Dewpoint........26  26  26  26  26  26
RH..............67  69  72  72  75  78
Heat index (F)..32  31  30  29  28  26
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.13  12  10  10  12  12
Surface wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N
Surface wnd spd.5   5   5   6   6   6
Surface wnd gst.13  12  10  10  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   7   7   7
LVORI...........3   3   3   3   4   4
ADI.............3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2   2   2   2   2   2
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Dewpoint............28 increasing to 33 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Min apparent temp...26.
Surface winds (mph).Northeast winds 5 to 9 mph shifting to the east
                    around 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 6 mph shifting to the east
                    around 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 9 mph shifting to the east 8 to
                    9 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (16700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................3 to 11 increasing to 16 to 24 in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5   5   6   4   3   9   9   4   4   3   6   9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............32  33  36  40  45  50  54  57  59  60  60  58
Dewpoint........27  27  28  30  32  32  32  31  32  33  34  35
RH..............81  78  72  67  60  50  43  37  36  36  37  42
Heat index (F)..26  28  32  35  41  46  54  57  59  60  60  58
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   5   7   8   9   9   9   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.13  12  13  14  14  15  15  15  15  14  14  14
Surface wnd dir.N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E
Surface wnd spd.6   6   5   7   8   9   9   9   8   8   8   8
Surface wnd gst.13  12  13  14  14  15  15  15  15  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E
Transp wind spd.7   8   8   9   9   9   9   9   8   8   8   9
LVORI...........5   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............3   8   8   11  16  19  22  23  24  22  20  20
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2   2   3   8   10  13  15  17  16  15  13  13
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

$$
Forecaster...Loconto
Requested by...C.Moore
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2506970.0/BOX
.DELDT 03/19/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Cmoore@rcfd.org