Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Arkansas-Red Basin RFC
Issued by NWS Arkansas-Red Basin RFC
Versions:
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ESGTUA
Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
1120 AM CST, Tuesday, February 24, 2026
COLORADO
-- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--
The Rocky Mountains
The potential for flood conditions is near normal this spring across
the Arkansas River Basin in Colorado. Flooding at most forecast points
in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or
isolated, high-intensity rainfall.
Snowpack for the entire basin is significantly below normal. The
snowpack is near 50% of normal at the upper reaches of the Arkansas
River. Snowpack is also well below normal along the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains in southern Colorado. As measured at high altitude SNOTEL
monitoring stations, the mountains of the Arkansas River basin have
received approximately 78 percent-of-median precipitation and have
accumulated 52 percent-of-median snowpack so far this water year. A
more detailed table is included below.
S N O W - P R E C I P I T A T I O N U P D A T E
Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
As of Tuesday: February 24, 2026
-------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name (Ft) % %
Current Median Median Current Median Median
-------------------------------------------------------------------
ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN
APISHAPA 10027 0.7 5.2 13 5.3 9.0 59
BRUMLEY 10594 4.4 8.0 55 6.7 9.8 68
FREMONT PASS 11326 5.6 11.8 47 6.9 12.0 58
GLEN COVE 11391 1.4 3.1 45 5.6 7.0 80
MEDANO PASS 9668 3.3 5.3 62 8.2 7.2 114
NORTH COSTILLA 10598 0.8 6.0 17 5.6 9.5 59
PORPHYRY CREEK 10788 8.6 11.8 73 10.4 10.8 96
SOUTH COLONY 10868 7.9 13.4 59 14.9 15.5 96
WHISKEY CK 10290 3.6 7.9 46 6.1 11.0 55
----- -----
Basin wide percent-of-median 52 78
Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent
and Total Precipitation values
At the end of January, mountain reservoirs in the Arkansas River
Basin (Turquoise, Twin Lakes, Pueblo) were at 57 percent of
capacity, 99 percent of median storage, and 87 percent of last
year`s storage.
Current soil moisture estimates from the Climate Prediction Center
(CPC) are below normal (less than the 30th percentile) in the Upper
Arkansas River valley and near normal (30th-70th percentile) across
the remainder of the mountainous areas in the ABRFC area.
The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 17, 2026 indicates that there is
Exceptional Drought (D4) over a small area near the headwters of the
Arkansas River. Drought classifications from Abnormally Dry (D0) to
Extreme Drought (D3) are also found near the upper reaches of the
Arkansas River. The remainder of the Upper Arkansas Basin is drought-
free. The most recent US Seasonal Drought Outlook issued February 19,
2026 calls for drought to persist and expand over the next 3 months
across Colorado.
The most recent CPC outlook for the next 3 months (MAR-APR-MAY)
indicates an increased chance of above normal temperatures across
Colorado. The precipitation outlook for the same period indicates
increased chances of below normal precipitation in the Arkansas
River Basin of Colorado.
The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) model does not indicate a
greater than 50 percent chance of flooding at any forecast point on
the headwaters of the Arkansas River above Pueblo. The table below
contains a summary of some potential maximum stages from the model
output.
Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Tuesday: February 24, 2026
Feb 24 - Jun 24 50% Exceedence
Weekly
Flood 50% exceedence 50% exceedence
Station Stage(ft) Maximum Stage (ft) Maximum Stage (ft)
------------------------------------------------------------------
Leadville 9.0 6.2 5.9
Salida 8.0 4.3 4.0
Wellsville 9.0 5.7 5.3
Parkdale 9.0 4.8 4.4
Canon City 10.0 7.9 7.5
Portland 9.0 4.7 4.4
Pueblo 8.0 5.4 5.0
Plains
The potential for flood conditions is near normal this spring. Normal
conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability of
flooding. Most flooding in this area is directly related to specific
heavy precipitation events.
The Arkansas River is currently flowing at near normal levels downstream
from Pueblo Reservoir. Fountain Creek is flowing at near to below normal
levels. The Purgatoire River is flowing at near to below normal levels.
Reservoir storage below Pueblo (Meredith, Trinidad, and John Martin) at
the end of January was at 11 percent of capacity, 83 percent of median
storage, and 91 percent of last year`s storage.
Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) soil moisture estimates for the
area indicate normal soil conditions (30-70th percentile) in the plains
of southeastern Colorado.
The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 17, 2026 indicates that there are
currently no drought conditions across much of the plains of Southeast
Colorado. The most recent US Seasonal Drought Outlook issued February
19, 2026 calls for an increase in drought conditions over the next 3
months across the plains of Southeast Colorado.
The table below presents some southeastern Colorado forecast points where
the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor flooding over
the next 90 days.
Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Tuesday: February 24, 2026
Fcst Point % Probability % Probability % Probability
Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
ADLC2 76 38 9
ARCC2 17 10 7
FHAC2 20 8 Not Expected
FWLC2 34 28 16
LAPC2 81 41 4
LMAC2 17 6 3
LXHC2 88 74 21
NPTC2 74 66 34
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply *
* *
*******************************************************
SOUTHERN KANSAS
The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas is near normal this spring.
Most flooding in this area is directly related to specific heavy precipitation
events.
Precipitation anomalies during the last 90 days have been significantly below
normal across much of southern Kansas. Conditions have been very dry across
far-southern Kansas along the Oklahoma border with some areas seeing less than
25% of their normal precipitation during the last 90 days. Conditions were
slightly better across small parts of eastern Kansas, where preciptation was near
to above normal.
Streamflows are near normal on the Arkansas River. Flows are above normal on the
Neosho River and near normal on the Verdigris River in southeastern Kansas.
Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is near normal. U.S. Corps of Engineers data
indicate that Corps reservoirs in southern Kansas currently have near 100 percent
of their flood-control storage available.
Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) soil moisture estimates indicate above
normal soil moisture in parts of southwestern and south-central Kansas. Soil
moisture estimates are above the 70th percentile in this area. Elsewhere across
Southern Kansas, soil moisture is near normal (30-70th percentile) across the
area.
The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 17, 2026 indicates Abnormally Dry (D0)
conditions across parts of southern Kansas along the Oklahoma border. The Drought
Monitor also indicates Moderate Drought (D1) in far-southeast Kansas. The US
Seasonal Drought Outlook issued February 19, 2025 calls for the drought to persist
across southeast Kansas. Drought conditions are also expected to expand across
western Kansas over the next 3 months.
The most recent Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for the next 3 months
(MAR-APR-MAY) indicates increased chances for above normal temperatures across
Kansas. The CPC outlook indicates increased chances of below normal precipitation
across western Kansas and equal chances of above, near, or below normal
precipitation across the remainder of the state.
The table below presents some southern Kansas forecast points where the ESP model
indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor flooding over the next 90 days.
Select Points in Southern Kansas
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Tuesday, February 24, 2026
Fcst. PointWFO% Probability % Probability % Probability
StationMinor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
BETK1 DDC 49 41 5
COOK1 DDC 16 6 Not Expected
ENWK1 DDC 23 15 Not Expected
FRGO2 DDC 15 4 Not Expected
KIOK1 DDC 39 29 21
MACK1 DDC 49 12 3
PTTK1 DDC 20 11 5
RCNK1 DDC 46 38 28
SANK1 DDC 14 5 3
ZENK1 DDC 72 60 24
AGAK1 ICT 12 Not Expected Not Expected
AGSK1 ICT 59 46 19
ALBK1 ICT 49 47 41
ALMK1 ICT 30 9 Not Expected
ARCK1 ICT 80 58 14
ARKK1 ICT 40 11 Not Expected
ATOK1 ICT 46 9 Not Expected
BLPK1 ICT 31 29 18
CBNK1 ICT 80 10 Not Expected
CFVK1 ICT 30 11 Not Expected
CNUK1 ICT 85 45 4
COWK1 ICT 40 3 Not Expected
CTWK1 ICT 17 8 Not Expected
DRBK1 ICT 64 48 30
EDWK1 ICT 48 46 39
EREK1 ICT 75 63 31
FLRK1 ICT 27 6 Not Expected
FRNK1 ICT 62 11 Not Expected
GTBK1 ICT 36 9 4
HAVK1 ICT 71 64 59
HTCK1 ICT 85 60 4
HTDK1 ICT 28 4 Not Expected
IDPK1 ICT 47 Not Expected Not Expected
IOLK1 ICT 33 4 Not Expected
LYNK1 ICT 65 Not Expected Not Expected
MDKK1 ICT 66 25 Not Expected
MULK1 ICT 70 54 28
OSWK1 ICT 90 71 10
OXFK1 ICT 80 58 6
PECK1 ICT 27 12 Not Expected
PLYK1 ICT 20 8 Not Expected
PPFK1 ICT 90 76 Not Expected
TOWK1 ICT 21 6 4
WELK1 ICT 78 60 23
WFDK1 ICT 69 53 25
AMCK1 TOP 51 36 Not Expected
EMPK1 TOP 90 79 Not Expected
EPRK1 TOP 81 77 Not Expected
LRYK1 TOP 19 19 Not Expected
NEOK1 TOP 90 76 Not Expected
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply *
* *
*******************************************************
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
The potential for flood conditions in southwestern Missouri is near normal this
spring. Most flooding in this area is related to specific heavy rainfall events.
Precipitation for the last 90 days across southwestern Missouri has been
significantly below normal with some areas less than 25% of normal. Streamflows
are below normal. Soil moisture is below normal (10-30th percentile).
The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 17, 2026 indicates Moderate Drought (D1) to
Extreme Drought (D3) conditions across Southwest Missouri. The US Seasonal Drought
Outlook calls for this to persist over the next 3 months.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for the next 3 months (MAR-APR-MAY)
indicates increased chances for above normal temperatures across southwestern
Missouri. The outlook also indicates equal chances of above, near, or below normal
precipitation over the same period.
The table below presents some southwestern Missouri forecast points where the
ESP model indicated a greater than 10 percent chance of minor flooding over the
next 90 days.
Select Points in Southwest Missouri
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Tuesday: February 24, 2026
Fcst. Point% Probability % Probability % Probability
StationMinor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
CHTM7 47 16 Not Expected
JOPM7 32 12 4
TIFM7 24 7 3
WCOM7 57 Non Expected Not Expected
BXTK1 54 22 Not Expected
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply *
* *
*******************************************************
Thanks to the USGS for streamflow condition data, the U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers for reservoir condition data, the Natural Resource Conservation Service
for SNOTEL data, and the Climate Prediction Center for the precipitation and
temperature outlooks, the soil moisture deficits, and the Drought Outlook.
$$