Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
543
FGUS73 KEAX 132010
ESFEAX
MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095-
101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-140000-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
310 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
...Final 2025 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook...
This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Kansas River,
Missouri River, and their tributaries, in northeast Kansas and
northern Missouri.
...Below normal flood potential through early June along the
Missouri River from the Iowa border through Boonville...
...Tributaries which typically flood during the spring months will
likely experience minor to moderate flooding...
Outlook:
Through early June, the probability of flooding along the Missouri
River from the Iowa border to Boonville is roughly 20 to 40 percent
below normal.
From the Iowa border downstream to Rulo, there is generally a 50
percent chance of exceeding flood stage. The St. Joseph
to Atchison portion of the river has a 25 to 35 percent chance of
minor flooding. From Leavenworth through Kansas City there is only a
10 to 20 percent chance of flooding, with the reach from Napoleon
through Boonville showing a 50 to 60 percent probability of minor
flooding.
Minor flooding is likely across tributary creeks and rivers which
typically experience flooding each spring. In addition, the
following basins have greater than or equal to 50 percent
probability of reaching moderate flood category: Upper Stranger,
Crooked, Blackwater, Grand at Pattonsburg and from Chillicothe to
Sumner, and Big. All of these basins frequently experience moderate
flooding each spring.
Spring flooding is not expected to be caused, or enhanced by melting
snow. Flooding which does develop will be driven by heavy rain
producing thunderstorms which typically occur during the spring
months.
Recent Conditions:
During the past 30-day period the heaviest area of precipitation was
in excess of three inches near Mound City, Kansas which is located
in the far southwest portion of the NWS Pleasant Hill/Kansas City
HSA. Two to three inches of liquid precipitation were also common
along the extent of the Kansas-Missouri border where between two and
three inches of liquid precipitation were observed. In general,
these values ranged from 110 to 150 percent of normal. Drier
conditions were found across central and northeast Missouri where
between one to one and a half inches of precipitation were observed.
These values were between 50 and 75 percent of normal.
The 90-Day precipitation analysis indicates the heaviest liquid
precipitation during the period stretched from Leavenworth, to St.
Joseph, to Albany where between five and seven inches were observed.
These values were generally 125 to 175 percent of normal
precipitation. The driest region stretched from just south of
Kirksville through Macon, to Boonville. Around four inches were
observed across this area. These conditions were less than 50 percent
of normal precipitation.
Temperatures during the past 30-day period ranged in the upper 20s
to lower 30s. These values were around 4 to 5 degrees below normal.
As for the past 90-Day period, the averaged temperature ranged in
the middle 20s north to lower 30s south of the Missouri River. These
conditions were normal to around a degree below normal.
Present Conditions:
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates around 30 percent of the
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA is experiencing at least
abnormally dry conditions with 4 percent of the HSA affected by
moderate drought. Looking at the entire Missouri Basin, 76
percent of the basin is experiencing at least abnormally dry
conditions with roughly 60 percent reporting at least moderate
drought. In addition, at least 25 percent is experiencing severe
drought conditions, and 6 percent observing extreme drought.
The Plains region has no significant snow cover at this time.
Looking at the upper portion of the Missouri Basin, mountain
snowpack is normal to slightly below normal.
7-Day average streamflow values indicate normal to above normal
conditions across the HSA.
Future Conditions:
7-Day forecast precipitation amounts are expected to range from a
a tenth to quarter inch across the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA.
The outlook for the 8 to 14 day period indicates a pattern favoring
above normal temperature and precipitation.
Looking at the outlook period through May. There is no clear
signal regarding temperature for the local area. Above normal
temperatures are slightly favored across Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Above normal precipitation is slightly favored across eastern
Missouri with increasing probabilities further east across the
Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region.
This is the final 2025 Spring Flood Outlook.
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In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Delaware River
Muscotah 27.0 28.0 36.0 : 39 40 29 36 <5 <5
:Stranger Creek
Easton 17.0 18.0 23.0 : 81 87 73 74 9 9
Tonganoxie 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 54 68 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
De Soto 26.0 33.0 36.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Turner Bridge KCK 41.0 47.5 54.0 : 5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
23rd Street KCK 33.0 54.0 55.0 : 21 33 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Missouri River
St Joseph 17.0 21.0 27.0 : 35 73 15 55 7 14
Atchison 22.0 27.0 30.0 : 25 66 11 27 7 19
Leavenworth 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 18 59 10 23 <5 9
Parkville 25.0 28.0 35.0 : 14 45 9 22 <5 8
Kansas City 32.0 35.0 49.0 : 9 20 6 12 <5 <5
Napoleon 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 53 79 16 33 5 10
Waverly 20.0 29.0 31.0 : 57 79 14 25 5 12
Miami 18.0 28.0 29.0 : 60 81 14 29 6 15
Glasgow 25.0 27.0 32.0 : 58 77 45 75 15 31
Boonville 21.0 30.0 34.0 : 59 77 16 22 <5 9
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 17.0 18.0 25.0 : 51 81 48 79 42 51
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 23.0 28.0 35.0 : 8 15 <5 5 <5 <5
:102 River
Maryville 18.0 23.0 28.0 : 19 44 <5 18 <5 <5
Rosendale 18.0 18.1 23.0 : 28 52 26 52 <5 8
:Platte River
Agency 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 86 88 41 62 5 7
:Little Platte River
Smithville 27.0 30.5 35.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Platte River
Sharps Station 26.0 29.0 33.0 : 53 72 40 62 16 27
Platte City 20.0 25.0 29.0 : 67 86 37 48 9 24
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 35.0 39.0 48.0 : 30 32 10 11 <5 <5
Bannister Road Ka 34.0 40.0 42.0 : 11 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
71 Highway Kansas 27.0 36.0 38.0 : 27 27 <5 <5 <5 <5
63rd Street Kansa 26.0 33.0 37.0 : 20 23 <5 <5 <5 <5
Colorado Avenue K 31.0 36.0 37.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Stadium Drive Kan 33.0 39.0 43.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
17th Street Kansa 33.0 36.0 38.0 : 9 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
12th Street Kansa 30.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Little Blue River
Lake City 18.0 25.0 27.0 : 45 41 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Crooked River
Richmond 20.0 21.0 29.0 : 66 78 61 72 <5 <5
:Wakenda Creek
Carrollton 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 55 67 37 61 <5 17
:Blackwater River
Valley City 22.0 25.0 31.0 : 83 93 75 84 24 29
Blue Lick 24.0 29.0 37.0 : 86 94 45 57 11 12
:Lamine River
Otterville 15.0 18.0 26.0 : 42 62 36 50 <5 11
:Moniteau Creek
Fayette 16.0 21.0 25.0 : 76 81 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Petite Saline Creek
Boonville 16.0 19.5 26.0 : 55 63 49 51 <5 <5
:Thompson River
Trenton 27.0 31.0 34.0 : 36 45 20 20 7 8
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 25.0 30.0 32.0 : 60 69 50 58 40 43
Gallatin 26.0 33.0 39.0 : 60 70 17 21 8 8
Chillicothe 24.0 28.0 35.0 : 71 77 62 69 35 38
Sumner 26.0 28.0 40.0 : 84 84 82 82 9 9
Brunswick 19.0 27.0 33.0 : 74 79 23 26 9 9
:Chariton River
Novinger 20.0 23.0 26.0 : 42 39 28 27 18 20
Prairie Hill 15.0 19.0 21.0 : 72 74 33 34 16 17
:South Grand River
Urich 24.0 26.0 33.0 : 67 71 42 49 <5 <5
:Big Creek
Blairstown 20.0 23.0 36.0 : 95 96 81 89 <5 <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 28.0 45.0 48.0 : 46 49 <5 <5 <5 <5
La Cygne 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 57 66 34 43 <5 <5
Trading Post 27.0 29.0 40.0 : 44 50 32 43 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah 7.7 9.7 14.6 22.8 28.3 29.3 31.0
:Stranger Creek
Easton 9.3 15.9 17.6 20.7 21.3 22.9 24.3
Tonganoxie 7.0 11.5 20.7 23.5 25.3 25.7 27.9
:Kansas River
De Soto 7.0 8.9 11.8 14.2 20.3 23.3 26.7
Turner Bridge KCK 7.8 12.8 14.1 20.5 30.1 34.5 40.1
23rd Street KCK 13.3 16.7 17.6 22.6 31.1 35.4 41.1
:Missouri River
St Joseph 7.1 8.2 11.1 15.0 18.5 24.0 28.2
Atchison 9.7 11.1 14.5 18.9 22.2 27.6 31.1
Leavenworth 4.1 5.3 8.3 13.8 18.3 24.1 28.9
Parkville 9.8 12.0 14.5 17.6 21.8 26.9 32.2
Kansas City 12.6 14.5 16.5 20.4 27.0 31.4 37.7
Napoleon 9.4 11.7 13.4 17.7 22.2 26.4 30.0
Waverly 13.0 15.7 17.4 20.5 24.8 29.8 30.9
Miami 10.3 13.7 16.0 19.9 24.5 28.8 29.7
Glasgow 13.9 19.4 21.9 26.8 29.9 35.7 39.9
Boonville 10.1 15.1 17.3 23.2 26.6 32.7 33.6
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 8.1 10.0 12.0 17.1 26.9 28.6 29.4
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 5.4 7.8 9.2 11.0 15.0 20.1 26.8
:102 River
Maryville 9.8 11.3 12.5 13.7 15.8 19.2 20.8
Rosendale 9.8 11.1 14.1 15.9 18.3 20.9 22.9
:Platte River
Agency 13.2 18.7 21.7 24.1 26.4 27.8 30.3
:Little Platte River
Smithville 13.5 13.9 14.5 17.7 20.0 21.4 26.1
:Platte River
Sharps Station 15.8 19.9 23.2 26.3 32.0 33.2 35.1
Platte City 13.1 17.0 19.3 21.2 26.4 28.6 31.4
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 26.8 28.2 29.5 33.0 36.5 39.0 40.2
Bannister Road Ka 7.6 8.8 15.0 20.6 28.2 34.2 37.3
71 Highway Kansas 6.7 8.3 16.1 20.6 28.1 33.4 34.7
63rd Street Kansa 10.2 11.6 16.0 19.5 25.5 28.8 29.6
Colorado Avenue K 9.8 10.9 15.4 18.4 23.6 28.1 29.9
Stadium Drive Kan 8.9 10.0 15.5 20.5 27.5 31.0 32.6
17th Street Kansa 12.6 14.2 19.0 23.6 29.3 32.6 33.9
12th Street Kansa 8.7 10.2 14.1 18.0 24.8 27.8 29.1
:Little Blue River
Lake City 5.8 7.3 9.6 17.4 20.8 23.9 24.2
:Crooked River
Richmond 7.1 12.3 17.7 22.2 25.0 26.7 27.1
:Thompson River
Trenton 13.2 16.0 18.5 24.7 29.3 32.3 35.5
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 5.8 9.3 19.4 29.9 34.1 37.2 45.4
Gallatin 7.6 10.8 22.2 27.8 32.5 35.3 41.7
Chillicothe 9.3 14.9 20.7 31.0 39.1 40.5 41.3
Sumner 13.0 21.7 30.4 34.0 37.7 39.5 42.6
Brunswick 7.0 15.4 18.6 21.3 25.9 31.4 38.5
:Chariton River
Novinger 3.0 4.8 13.1 17.2 24.0 27.6 29.8
Prairie Hill 4.5 9.7 14.5 16.5 19.6 22.2 23.9
:South Grand River
Urich 11.2 16.4 22.6 25.6 28.3 28.8 31.0
:Big Creek
Blairstown 18.9 22.6 23.4 24.3 25.9 27.0 27.3
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 15.9 17.5 20.0 24.2 34.0 36.1 38.2
La Cygne 10.8 13.8 19.5 27.9 32.7 33.5 34.0
Trading Post 11.9 13.9 20.3 26.5 34.6 37.6 38.5
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.0
:Stranger Creek
Easton 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2
Tonganoxie 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0
:Kansas River
De Soto 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4
:Missouri River
St Joseph 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Atchison 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
Parkville 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4
Kansas City 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4
Napoleon 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8
Waverly 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
Miami 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6
Glasgow 7.7 7.7 7.3 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9
Boonville 3.6 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9
:102 River
Maryville 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0
Rosendale 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Platte River
Agency 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
:Little Platte River
Smithville 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
:Platte River
Sharps Station 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.2
Bannister Road Ka 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
71 Highway Kansas 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
63rd Street Kansa 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2
Colorado Avenue K 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1
Stadium Drive Kan 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7
17th Street Kansa 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8
12th Street Kansa 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
:Little Blue River
Lake City 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0
:Crooked River
Richmond 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.2
:Thompson River
Trenton 10.7 10.6 10.2 9.9 9.6 9.3 9.1
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8
Gallatin 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0
Chillicothe 5.6 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.4 4.1 3.8
Sumner 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.2
:Chariton River
Novinger 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Prairie Hill 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
:South Grand River
Urich 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.3 3.2 2.9
:Big Creek
Blairstown 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.5 8.2 7.8 7.6
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.5
La Cygne 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2
Trading Post 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.7
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/eax for more weather and water
information.
This is the final 2025 Spring Flood Outlook.
$$
SAW