Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
160 FXXX12 KWNP 211231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Mar 21 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4025 (N12W77, Cso/beta) produced a C4.4 flare at 20/1710 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. Region 4031 (N18W60, Cao/beta) developed additional trailing spots as it approached the western limb. New spots were observed near N07W18 and N19W12 as they developed rapidly, but remain unnumbered at this time as we await corroborating observatory reports. The remaining numbered active regions were relatively quiet. An approximate 10 degree filament eruption centered near S13E21 occurred at 20/1813 UTC. However, no apparent ejecta was evident in LASCO coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... C-class flares are expected to continue on 21-23 Mar, with a chance for isolated M-class (R1-Minor) flares. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at or near background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment reflected the arrival of what was likely a CME that left the Sun on 17 Mar. At approximately 21/0142 UTC total field increased to 6 nT and then gradually increased to 13 nT over the course of the remaining hours of the period. The Bz component initially deflected southward, reaching -3 to -5 nT, but then rotated northward. Solar wind speeds initially increased to ~440 km/s during shock arrival, but then gradually decreased to below 400 km/s. Phi became predominantly positive around 21/0425 UTC. .Forecast... A disturbed IMF is anticipated to persist through 21 Mar due to the aforementioned CME arrival. An additional enhancement is expected by late 22 Mar with the arrival of a CIR preceding a negative polarity CH HSS. Enhanced conditions are expected to persist through 23 Mar. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods through 23 Mar first due to weak CME effects followed by negative polarity CH HSS effects.