Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
337 FXXX12 KWNP 140031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jun 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at low levels. All active regions were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. The strongest flare of the period was a C2.5/Sf flare at 13/1309 UTC associated with a filament eruption near the SW limb. Subsequent GOES-19 CCOR-1 coronagraph imagery contained a CME signature towards the SW beginning at 13/1345 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event indicated a miss well ahead of Earth. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 16 Jun, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux of 1,519 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach high levels over 14-16 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 16 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected influence from a negative polarity CH HSS, with a slight enhancement in IMF noted at 13/0952 UTC, which may be associated with arrival of transient influence anticipated for early to midday on 13 Jun. Total magnetic field strength increased from a steady 5 nT during the HSS to a peak of 8 nT at 13/0900 UTC. The Bz component briefly reached as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from a steady ~550 km/s to a peak of ~674 km/s at 13/1026 UTC, then returned to near 550 km/s by the end of the period. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced over 14-16 Jun due to continued -CH HSS influences. Additional enhancements are possible over 14 Jun with the anticipated passage of CMEs from 09 and 11 Jun, and again on 16 Jun with the likely glancing blow of the CME from 12 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period, under -CH HSS and CME influences. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 14 Jun due to -CH HSS influences and the passage of CMEs that left the Sun on 09 Jun and 11 Jun. Periods of active conditions are likely on 15-16 Jun as -CH HSS influences persist, with possible weak interactions with the CME from 12 Jun.