839
FXUS65 KVEF 032150
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
250 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered thunderstorms will persist through the early
  evening before dry conditions return by Friday.

* Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire danger on
  Friday.

* Warming trend expected next week with major heat risk returning by
  midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The rest of today through Thursday.

Through the early afternoon, convection has developed in portions of
southern Nevada as an upper level trough lifts into southwest Utah.
So far, most of the thunderstorm activity has been terrain based
as the center of the low moves overhead. This should continue
through the afternoon with some of the storms blowing off the
terrain into nearby valleys, but in general activity will be more
isolated than the past few days. With decent CAPE and dry air
intruding in behind the existing systems, so sudden gusty winds
are possible with any storms. PWATs have decreased from the other
day but continue to be elevated, especially in Mohave County,
which could lead to heavy rain at times and isolated flash
flooding. Thunderstorm activity will quickly diminish late this
afternoon and evening as the trough lifts out.


Another shortwave will zip through northern Nevada on Friday behind
the exiting trough. This will bring in additional dry air and no
precipitation is expected Friday through next week. As the piece of
energy moves through, a strengthening pressure gradient will result
in increasing south to southwest winds across the region. Widespread
gusts of 20-30MPH will develop Friday afternoon. While the
probability for hitting 40 MPH is moderate to high (60%-80%) in
the Western Mojave Desert into the Death Valley area, gusts
should only briefly touch 40 MPH and thus impacts would be
limited. With dry conditions and breezy winds, elevated to high
fire danger is expected on Friday. For additional information on
fire weather conditions and fire danger, please see the FIRE
WEATHER section.

After temps hover slightly below or near seasonal normals through
the weekend, a ridge will build over the interior West next week.
While there is some uncertainty in exactly where the high will
set up and how strong it will build, warming trend and above
normal temperatures are likely. Widespread major heat risk
advertised by Wednesday and Thursday. This looks to translate to
110+ high temperatures across much of the Mojave Desert including
Las Vegas, and 120+ within the lower reaches of Death Valley.


&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Isolated convection will linger in and around the valley
through the early evening, though most of the activity should should
decrease and move away from the terminals after 00Z. Beyond 00z,
lingering showers and storms should diminish and/or move east of the
terminal, and after precipitation ends this evening then a dry
forecast is expected. Light and diurnal winds will return for
tonight. On Friday, south to southwest winds will increase late
morning and afternoon. Gusts 20-25KT are likely before winds
diminish after sunset.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will continue in southern Nevada and western Arizona
through the early evening, though after 00Z thee should be a
decrease in activity. Any storms could produce heavy rain,
lightning, and sudden gusty winds. Through the evening,
thunderstorms will wane and shift east and precipitation should end
by 05Z. A dry forecast is expected after this evening.  Breezy
southerly winds will continue at times through sunset when they will
decrease to under 10KT following typical patterns overnight. KBIH
may see a west push of winds between 00Z and 03Z. On Friday,
widespread south to southwest winds will develop in the afternoon
with gusts 20-30KT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Austin

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