061
FXUS64 KTSA 212309
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
609 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

  - Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue
    this afternoon.

  - Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday
    night into Sunday across far northeast Oklahoma and western
    Arkansas.

  - Temperatures remain above normal with continued elevated to
    near critical fire weather conditions into early next week
    before low rain chances return mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Fire weather conditions remain the immediate concern, with the
ongoing Red Flag Warning in effect until 7 pm. Overall, wind
speeds are trending downward and should continue to do so into the
evening but not quickly enough to offset the relative humidities
in the 20 to 25 percent range in most spots. Winds west of highway
75 are beginning to shift more toward the west with the approach
of the weak front sitting just west of I-35. A continued wind
shift to a northwesterly direction will occur through the evening
and into the overnight as the front pushes through the region.
With high pressure moving into the area behind the front, have
trended low temperatures downward, especially across areas along
and north of Highway 412.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Fire weather concerns will uptick again on Saturday, especially
the northern half to third of the area, with low dew points
remaining in place behind the cold front and increasing southerly
winds as the front lifts back northward during the day. Elevated
to near critical RFTI remains forecast for much of the area north
of I-40, with increased low level moisture farther south abating
the threat. Parts of northeast Oklahoma and into northwest
Arkansas may see some much needed rainfall with low to medium
chances for showers and thunderstorms associated with the warm
front and an upper level disturbance extending southward across
the Central Plains on Saturday evening into Sunday morning.
Although the better potential for rainfall should be east of the
area, the chances for rain may extend into southeast Oklahoma
Sunday afternoon as the front moves back southward again.

Fire weather should remain the main concern well into next week
given the continued dry conditions for most and only low rain
chances in the forecast until potentially next weekend. Monday
currently looks like another day that will feature dry return flow
in much of the area, which could set up for another day with
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Wind speeds on
Monday do not look as concerning the last few notable fire
weather days, limiting the overall threat. Wind speeds increase on
Thursday ahead of the aforementioned weekend system, leading to
another day with increased fire spread rates.

Moisture should markedly increase Friday and into the weekend,
with the storm system moving out of the southwest, leading to
increased rain and thunderstorm chances. We will have to watch to
see if this potential holds together with time, given the more
pessimistic /in a much needed rainfall sense/ trends with time
regarding previous potential rain makers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Ongoing gusty winds will decrease around sunset with light winds
overnight. Southeasterly to south winds return Saturday and
increase through the day along with increasing high clouds. VFR
flight levels are expected through this forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  76  57  71 /   0  10  30   0
FSM   42  78  59  76 /   0   0  20  20
MLC   42  78  61  76 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   36  75  52  69 /   0  10  30   0
FYV   37  73  57  72 /   0   0  30  20
BYV   39  71  57  70 /   0   0  40  30
MKO   40  76  61  72 /   0   0  20  10
MIO   37  72  56  68 /   0  10  50  10
F10   41  77  61  72 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   43  77  60  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>076.

AR...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...07