641
FXUS63 KTOP 270524
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1224 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms Thursday morning east-central KS and again
Thursday evening northern Kansas. A few strong to severe storms
possible with the evening activity.

- Cold front Saturday evening brings another chance for a few
stronger thunderstorms.

- Very warm through Saturday, particularly Thursday when
  temperatures approach record highs in places. Turning colder
  by Sunday behind the cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Similar to the past couple days, eastern Kansas remains under
northwest flow aloft, between a trough axis over the east coast and
a ridge axis over the Rockies. A weak upper low continues to slowly
drift across Arizona and northwest Mexico. At the surface, winds are
slowly turning more southerly ahead of this upper low, increasing
WAA across the area. Weak mid-level frontogenesis has been
contributing to some isolated sprinkles over far northeastern KS,
but this has now moved off to the east.

A LLJ strengthens across the region tonight, strengthening WAA,
moisture advection, and isentropic ascent. The increasing moisture
will help elevated CAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg develop. Elevated
parcels should become mostly uncapped, allowing for scattered
thunderstorms to develop south of I-70 around or a couple hours
prior to sunrise. Weak shear should keep this activity generally sub-
severe (perhaps just some small hail). The main question is how long
will this activity linger. Would not be surprised for this to
persist into the early afternoon across far eastern KS. If this was
to occur, remnant clouds would keep temperatures a bit cooler than
forecast, sticking in the 70s for highs. Where cloud cover can clear
out by mid-day though, deep mixing of a very warm airmass will allow
temperatures to soar into the mid/upper 80s. A few spots out west
could even touch 90. By the evening, cooling mid-level temperatures
and continued deep mixing should allow CIN to erode along a warm
front that develops and lifts north toward the Nebraska border. With
around 2000 J/kg of somewhat high-based CAPE and 25-30 kts of shear,
a few strong to severe storms with 60 mph wind gusts and quarter
size hail could occur. However with the warm front continuing to
lift north into Nebraska, the window for any stronger storms will be
limited to a few hours during the evening.

Friday looks quieter with the trough axis of the southern stream low
and the ridge axis of the upper ridge located around our longitude.
Temperatures remain mild into Saturday, though not quite as toasty
as Thursday. By Saturday evening, the upper ridge will depart to our
east as a series of shortwaves cuts a longer wave trough over the
western CONUS. The first shortwave will push a cold front through
our area Saturday evening. With seasonably high moisture ahead of
the front, there should be enough instability for a few storms to
develop ahead. Exact details are TBD, but early guidance has modest
amounts of instability and shear - not a ton but enough to support a
few strong to severe storms. Behind the cold front Sunday, cooler
temperatures will be ushered in, dropping highs into the 50s for
Sunday and Monday. A trailing shortwave will keep some rain chances
in place into Sunday night, with only a 10-20% chance for some non-
accumulating snow to mix in across north-central KS late. The active
pattern then continues for the end of the period as the next system
approaches mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR conditions this forecast period with anticipated LLWS as a
jet around 2000 feet increases up to 50 kts per latest forecast
soundings aft 07Z at KMHK and 09Z at KTOP/KFOE. Mid clouds
increase towards sunrise as scattered showers develop south of
the terminals. South winds become gusty aft 15Z, from 15 to 20
kts sustained. Sfc winds remain mixed towards the evening so
confidence in LLWS redeveloping is low at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Thursday high temperature forecasts and record-
Concordia: 89       Record: 89 in 1895
Topeka:  83         Record: 87 in 1895

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Prieto
CLIMATE...Reese