730
FXUS63 KTOP 100502
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1202 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summertime pattern persists through the work week with low chances
(10-30%) for isolated storms. Any storm that develops will have the
potential for gusty winds to 60 mph.

- Highest probability for showers and storms occurs with with an
incoming cold front on Friday. A few strong to severe storms may
produce damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Max heat indices may briefly approach 100-105 for portions of
  north central Kansas Thursday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Weak upper ridging continues to impact the central plains this
afternoon as the 1059mb ridge axis centers over the Four Corners
Region. Weakening perturbation sinking southward into northern
Kansas would be the only impetus for isolated convection to form by
late afternoon north of the highway 36 corridor. Majority of short
term guidance maintains a dry forecast for area today, however there
remains an outside chance (10-15%) for an isolated storm to form,
capable of gusty winds up to 60 mph. Otherwise an additional
perturbation is progged to develop isolated-scattered convection in
NE with low confidence in the complex impacting locations north of I-
70 overnight. Maintained low chance pops as CAMS continue to back
off on precip reaching the area, particularly the HRRR and NAMNest
that had advertised convection in earlier runs.

Southerly winds increase Thursday as the sfc trough deepens
throughout the state, from 10 to 20 mph sustained. Enhanced BL
mixing and ample sunshine anticipated raises high temps to the
warmest seen this week in the middle-upper 90s. Peak heat indices in
the late afternoon briefly reach 100-105, highest over central KS.
Embedded upper troughing enters western Nebraska during the
afternoon, keeping pops at bay until the evening period. NBM probs
for precip are continuing to decrease as 12Z guidance backs off on
widespread QPF reaching the CWA from the west, giving the varied
timing and increasing elevated inhibition overnight. Depending on
residual showers/storms in the morning will dictate the severity of
Friday afternoon-evening  convection with redevelopment focused
along the front. If cloud cover clears, allowing sfc CAPE to reach
3000+ J/KG, effective shear of 20-30 kts could result in strong to
severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Confidence in
this scenario remains low given the weak forcing and inconsistencies
amongst guidance.

Depending upon the frontal boundary position by Saturday, there may
be lingering showers and storms especially in far east central
Kansas during the morning and afternoon as an additional upper
trough passes. The system clears to the south by Sunday, bringing
pleasant and less humid conditions for the weekend into early next
week. Broad westerly flow aloft becomes the predominant pattern next
week, signaling the potential for an additional cold front and
subsequent storm chances Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Models show surface based CIN increasing through the early
morning while the CAMS weaken the MCS over central NEB as it
moves southeast. So will keep a dry forecast going with VFR
conditions prevailing. Southerly surface winds look to
strengthen by the late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Wolters