747
FXUS65 KTFX 212357
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
557 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds this afternoon in the Cut Bank area.
- Possible strong winds on Saturday over Central MT.
- Snow tonight through Saturday in the mountains along the divide
  and across Southwest MT.
- Another windy period likely on Monday.
- Several days of above normal temperatures expected by the middle
  of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 155 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:
Strong winds continue this afternoon in the Cut Bank area, thus
the high wind warning will continue through the afternoon. As the
next wave of Pacific moisture arrives tonight, snow will increase
along the divide and across Southwest MT. On Saturday, there is
the potential for strong wind gusts in the morning in the wake of
the passing cold front.

For early next week, there is another potential for strong winds
over portions of North Central MT by Monday. Warmer air then moves
into MT by the middle portion of next week, with afternoon
temperatures averaging about 15 to 20 degrees above normal. The
warmer temperatures will not last too long, as another trof
approaches MT by next weekend.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Accumulating snow will affect the mountains of Southwest MT and
the Rocky Mountain Front through Saturday. Overall the snowfall on
main roadways should be in the advisory criteria. However, a few
ridgetops in Glacier Park could see snowfall in excess of 12
inches.

In terms of winds, the overall guidance continues to be around a
70 percent chance for strong winds over Central MT on Saturday.
Given this marginal probability, I kept the high wind watch in
place, to let later shifts take another look with later model
guidance. There is also about a 60 percent chance for strong winds
by Monday along the front range of the Rockies and in the Cut Bank
area once again. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
22/00Z TAF Period

Pacific moisture streaming east into the Northern Rockies will
bring an increasing coverage of snow and mountain obscuration to
areas along the continental divide this eventing with surface low
pressure crossing the Northern Rockies later tonight and its
associated cold front sweeping east across most of north-central
and southwest MT late tonight through early Saturday morning.
Showers initially develop at KCTB this evening ahead of the
incoming surface low with the front moving east/southeast across
area terminals between from 08z in the west and 12z in eastern
areas. Most terminals will see a brief period of showers and low
VFR to MVFR conditions with the frontal passage. Some potential
for brief IFR exists at KCTB, KBZN and KEKS where there is a
greater risk for predominately snow showers, while a mix/change to
snow is possible at other terminals. Surface winds decrease some
this evening, but gusty west winds redevelop with the frontal
passage and continue through much of Saturday. Additional snow
showers may wrap around the departing system across primarily
north-central MT on Saturday, potentially bringing another period
of MVFR conditions and terrain obscuration near the KLWT and KHVR
terminals. Hoenisch

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  46  28  51 /  20  60  10  10
CTB  30  43  26  46 /  50  60  10   0
HLN  33  44  28  49 /  50  50   0  20
BZN  28  40  20  46 /  40  70   0  10
WYS  23  35  10  38 /  90  80  10  30
DLN  28  39  22  48 /  50  50   0   0
HVR  31  49  25  51 /  40  60  20   0
LWT  33  41  25  45 /  10  60  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT Saturday night for
East Glacier Park Region-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight MDT
Saturday night for Little Belt and Highwood Mountains.

High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon
for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Canyon Ferry Area-
Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Fergus County below 4500ft-
Gallatin Valley-Helena Valley-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-
Meagher County Valleys-Missouri Headwaters-Snowy and Judith
Mountains-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon MDT
Saturday for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-
Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-
Madison River Valley-Northwest Beaverhead County-Ruby Mountains
and Southern Beaverhead Mountains.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls