Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
128 FXUS62 KTBW 220034 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 834 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025 No change to existing forecast reasoning, with quiet conditions expected over the weekend along with a gradual warming trend following a cool start on Saturday, with morning lows in the upper 30s across much of the Nature Coast, lower to mid 40s central, south and interior, and upper 40s to lower 50s immediate central and southern coastal. Patchy frost potential remains for interior Levy County tonight along with patchy fog potential over central and southern interior counties. && .DISCUSSION... A near zonal flow is in place aloft this afternoon with surface high pressure over the southeast. After a cool start this morning, temperatures have warmed up into the 60s under sunny skies. High pressure will settle overhead tonight, allowing winds to calm and temperatures to drop tomorrow morning. Some spots could see mid 30s, while the rest of the area sees mainly 40s and then lower 50s near the coast. The rest of Saturday and through Sunday will feature a gradual warmup. As we head into next week, troughing starts to move over the eastern half of the country, shifting the high out over the Atlantic as a frontal boundary moves into the southeast. This front will bring another chance for some showers late Monday into Tuesday before conditions clear out for the rest of the week. There will not be much of a cool-down behind this boundary either, with temperatures near to above normal through the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 745 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Dry VFR conditions through period. Winds generally 10 knots or less, light and variable late evening through mid morning before increasing and gradually shifting to onshore during the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... No headlines are expected for the next several days with high pressure in place. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air will remain over the region through the weekend, but winds will remain below Red Flag criteria. Moisture will increase early next week as another front brings a chance for showers. No concerns for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 50 73 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 51 78 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 48 77 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 47 73 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 37 74 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 56 71 59 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Delerme