888
FXUS62 KTAE 220030
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
830 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

The main changes to tonight`s forecast were adjusting T/Td for
the next few hrs to account for the latest trends. Of note, was
the impressive increase in dew points over the last hr with the
northward advance of a late afternoon seabreeze. The Tallahassee
Airport`s Td shot up from 27 at 705PM EDT to 39 at 745PM EDT! That
change equates to roughly a 1 degree increase every 3 min!
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

The 21Z surface analysis shows a 1023-mb bubble of high pressure
over the NE Gulf. This feature is slated to nestle into Apalachee
Bay and foster a locally favorable environment for good frost
coverage in the SE FL Big Bend. Given the Winter Solstice`s
conclusion yesterday and plant booms on the rise, a Frost Advisory
will go into effect from 5AM EDT to 9AM EDT south of Madison
County. Frost potential also exists for remaining inland portions
of the Big Bend, but confidence is not high enough to warrant an
advisory expansion. However, trends will be monitored overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

The main concern overnight will be the possibility for frost across
the southeast big bend. Calm winds and clear skies tonight are
expected to lead to ideal radiational cooling conditions across the
area. In these patterns, the NBM is typically ~5 degrees too warm on
low temperatures across the southeast big bend, and the MOS
consensus is almost always superior. In this case, that results in a
low temperature forecast in the mid 30s for the southeast big bend.
Areas of frost are expected to develop as a result, and a frost
advisory has been hoisted for Taylor, Dixie, and Lafayette counties.
Elsewhere, some patchy frost cannot be ruled out in a few spots, but
low temperatures are expected to be slightly too warm for much more
than patchy frost.

For Saturday, surface high pressure will dominate the region with
mostly sunny skies. Although we will have a cool start to the
morning, high temperatures are expected to rebound into the low to
mid 70s for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

As a surface high pressure system slowly moves to our east, surface
winds will generally shift to be out of the south. Temperatures will
have no problem reaching into the upper 70s Sunday afternoon after
dipping into the mid-40s Saturday night. With this a seabreeze
should develop, aiding the mean southerly flow and increasing the
advection of low-level moisture and increased RHs into our region on
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Ongoing southerly flow will continue to advect low-level moisture
into the region before the tail end of a weak cold front attempts to
push through the CWA Monday. With this, there exists at least the
possibility for a low-end severe weather threat. Instability appears
to be mostly weak, and with the axis of the jet positioned well to
the north, low-level shear will be limited. Bulk shear will still be
elevated at around 40-50kts which could support some storm
organization should any storms fire. Any severe weather that does
materialize will likely be in the form of wind / hail due to the
elevated mid-level lapse rates and relatively straight hodographs.

There remains a small chance that rain/storm chances linger through
the afternoon Tuesday, however the majority of guidance shows rain
chances quickly dropping off by Monday night. Regardless, by
Wednesday surface high pressure will begin building in to the north
of our CWA, causing predominantly northerly flow. A quick drying out
trend and near average temperatures will follow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Mostly SKC will make for continued VFR conds this TAF cycle. Light
to calm winds prevail tonight before picking up slightly out of
the west (below 10 kts) mid to late tmrw morning. An aftn
seabreeze induces a SW wind at ECP/TLH around 22-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 818 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

The West Tampa Buoy (42036) was reporting a sustained NW wind
near 6 kts with 3-ft seas and a dominant period of 8 seconds late
this evening.

CWF Synopsis: A high pressure center will move directly across
the northeast Gulf waters from this evening through Saturday.
Gentle to moderate southerlies will return on Sunday, as high
pressure moves off to the east and a cold front reaches the Mid-
South region. That front will weaken and dissipate over the waters
on Monday night and Tuesday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Low humidity will continue through the weekend with min RH values
in the mid-20s to lower 30s for most areas away from the coast.
Northwesterly transport winds around 10-15 mph are expected
Saturday, then becoming southerly on Sunday ahead of the next
front. Rain chances increase on Monday with a wetting rain
possible. Dispersions will still be good though given strong
southwesterly transport winds around 15-20 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

The Aucilla River at Lamont is still in minor flood, but it has
been slowly falling since Tuesday. It will fall below flood stage
tonight.

No new flooding is expected for the next 7 days. Rainfall during
that time will not be hydrologically significant at or below an
inch.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   41  74  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   49  70  53  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        40  74  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        39  74  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      39  73  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    35  72  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  46  68  53  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ028-029-034.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Mutschler
LONG TERM....Mutschler
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Dobbs/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Mutschler