Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
796 FXUS65 KSLC 121020 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 420 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A prolonged stretch of hot and dry conditions continues into next week. Chances for isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms return from Monday forward. && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...High pressure centered off the SoCal coast today will maintain a mostly northwest flow aloft over Utah today. The high center will largely remain in place tomorrow while height rises spread into Utah. Expect temperatures to gradually trend warmer through the weekend. Despite the dry airmass, however, a few high-based showers may pop up over the higher terrain, particularly the southern mountains and the high Uintas each afternoon. These would remain very isolated but may be accompanied by with brief, isolated, gusty outflow winds. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Monday)...Ridging aloft gradually drifts west by Monday with its western periphery hanging off the coast of CA. With this flow pattern, modest moisture return will begin with PWATs generally ranging from around 0.5-0.7" across the majority of UT and southwest WY. This will be enough moisture to spark isolated showers and thunderstorms across our typical higher terrain spots each afternoon through the long term due to weak synoptic forcing in play. With heights building over the forecast area, hot temperatures are expected areawide throughout the duration of the long term with our valley locations seeing temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s each day. Additionally, lower Washington county will see temperatures nearing and perhaps exceeding 110F each day. Be sure to drink plenty of water, limit time in the sun, and dress appropriately! Nearing the end of the long term, troughing / a cutoff low looks to develop off the west coast which will serve to increase moisture return across the region. Guidance regarding this solution is somewhat iffy at best and would support more widespread shower and thunderstorm development beginning across southern UT as early as Friday. This would be a welcomed solution as we have remained quite dry as of late and bears watching as we head into the weekend. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist at the KSLC terminal through the TAF period. Typical diurnal wind shifts are expected to northwesterly around 17z and southeasterlies once again around 04z. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Generally diurnal winds will take hold as overall flow remains light across UT and southwest WY. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure building over the West Coast will maintain dry conditions over Utah through the weekend with a gradual warming trend. Afternoon relative humidities in the single digits can be expected once again across the valleys of southern and central Utah with poor overnight recoveries. Despite the dry airmass, cumulus buildups and very isolated high-based showers will be possible over the higher terrain of southern Utah as well as the high Uintas this weekend, with a threat of brief, localized gusty outflow winds. Additionally, portions of eastern Utah may see marginal/isolated critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient supports enhanced west to northwest winds. Modest midlevel moisture is expected to spread into the area somewhat by Monday, bringing an increased threat of high-based showers and thunderstorms. Coverage is expected to remain generally isolated to widely scattered for much of the week, but the threat of gusty outflow winds and dry lightning will exist. Deeper moisture looks to work its way into the area by next weekend, increasing the potential for wetting rain. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Cheng/Worster For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity