591
FXUS64 KSJT 060056
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
756 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flood Watch in effect from tonight through Sunday
  afternoon. Added Brown and Coleman Counties into the Watch.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms possible
  tonight through Sunday afternoon, some with locally heavy
  rainfall.

- Warming trend expected next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 747 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...Updated to add Brown and Coleman Counties into the Flood
Watch...

Latest HRRR for late tonight into Sunday morning continues to
expand the showers and storms into the eastern sections of the
area, especially the Heartland and Hill Country. Given the air
mass in place, these will continue to be prolific rain produces
with excessive rainfall rates above 4 inch per hour in some
locations. After some discussion with WPC, a small area has been
upgraded to a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall. Coleman and
Brown Counties were not originally in the watch since they had not
seen the same rainfall totals that areas farther south had seen,
but given these rainfall rates possible and fairly wet last few
weeks over there, added Coleman and Brown into the Flood Watch.

Will also update POPs for tonight and Sunday to better match the
latest thinking, and increased rainfall totals in some areas as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

An upper level high will develop over southwestern CONUS this
weekend and is expected to strengthen Tuesday into Wednesday. We
will sit on the eastern edge of this high pressure, turning our
winds aloft north/northeasterly. These winds will bring in drier air
aloft. At the surface, south/southeasterly winds will continue,
allowing gulf moisture to stick around. However, dewpoints should be
lower than what we`ve seen recently, with values dropping into the
upper 50s and 60s. We could see spotty showers and thunderstorms on
Monday as a disturbance rotates around the high near our area. Rain
chances for the rest of the week will remain on the lower end, but
an isolated storm cannot be ruled out for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures will gradually rise throughout the work week, reaching
the upper 90s to near 100 by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Scattered showers and storms have redevelop across portions of the
area but so far, nothing looks imminent near any of the terminals.
Convection looks more likely late Sunday morning into the
afternoon hours and will add a PROB30 for most locations for
tomorrow. Otherwise, east to southeast winds will prevail at
around 10 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     74  86  73  88 /  30  50  10  30
San Angelo  72  87  71  88 /  30  50  10  30
Junction    72  85  71  88 /  40  60  10  20
Brownwood   72  83  71  87 /  60  50  10  20
Sweetwater  73  89  72  89 /  20  40  10  30
Ozona       71  85  70  87 /  20  40  10  20
Brady       71  82  71  86 /  50  60  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Brown-Coke-Coleman-Concho-
Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...07