830
FXUS64 KSJT 211844
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
144 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect until 5 PM Today.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will continue
  across most of West Central Texas through the upcoming weekend.

- Potential for showers and thunderstorms develop late next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

A weak cold front will move into the northern half of the area
overnight, then dissipate. Besides a brief wind shift to the north,
this front will have little effect on the forecast area. Expect
overnight lows in the 40s. Unseasonably warm temperatures are
forecast across the region on Saturday, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s. Expect south winds to increase to 10 to 15 mph, with
higher gusts, by mid to late morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 447 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

The weekend will start off with above normal temperatures, along
with breezy south winds on Saturday, with afternoon highs in the
upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Models continue to show a weak cold
front affecting the area on Sunday. The front is expected to move
through the Big Country during the morning hours and across far
southern counties by late afternoon. The front will bring cooler
temperatures for Monday, with highs in the upper 70s and lower
80s.

Warmer temperatures return Tuesday and Wednesday as shortwave
ridging develops in advance of an upper trough developing over
the Baja California region. This system is expected to track east
and affect the area by late week, bringing a chance for showers
and a few thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. Still some model
differences concerning the timing of this system, but low to
medium rain chances appear reasonable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Gusty southwest winds will quickly decrease at all sites late this
afternoon into the evening hours. Stratus is forecast to develop
across the Hill Country around 12Z and result in MVFR ceilings at
KSOA and KJCT, with VFR ceilings returning by 14Z. South winds
will increase to 12 to 15 knots by mid to late morning Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

A Red Flag warning continues in effect for most of West Central
Texas through 5 PM this evening, as gusty southwest winds combine
with RH values of 5 to 15 percent. Expect winds to quickly decrease
this evening. On Saturday, elevated fire weather conditions are
expected, especially across our western counties, as minimum RH
values drop to 10 to 20 percent and 20 foot winds increase to 12 to
18 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue Sunday into
early next week as minimum RH values drop to 15 to 25 percent, while
20 foot winds generally remain below 15 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     46  87  61  79 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  46  87  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    48  86  57  90 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood   44  86  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  46  88  60  77 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       48  84  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       49  85  59  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Brown-
Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-McCulloch-
Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Daniels