128
FXUS64 KSHV 190747
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
247 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Strong southerly flow will persist across the region today due to
an enhanced pressure gradient between a deepening surface low
across the Midwest and a surface high centered across Florida.
South winds up to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph can be expected
throughout the day across the entire ArkLaTex. Thus, the Wind
Advisory currently in effect has now been expanded to include the
entire ArkLaTex.

A frontal boundary across central Texas will shift east across the
region late this afternoon bringing a wind shift to the west
followed by a much drier air. Convergence ahead of the front at
the time of peak heating could result in a few showers across
mainly north Louisiana this afternoon.

Due to the increased wind speeds and drier air building behind
the front this afternoon, there is a threat for wildfires across
mainly portions of east and northeast Texas. Therefore, any
outdoor burning is strongly discouraged.

Northwest winds are forecast to remain elevated around 10 to 15
mph overnight as surface high pressure continues to build across
the region. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to average in
the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Otherwise, dry and stable conditions to persist into Thursday
with northwest winds around 10 to 15 mph and high temperatures
forecast to average in the lower 60s. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Light winds expected on Thursday night as surface high pressure
settles across the region with overnight lows forecast to average
in the upper 30s.

As the high shifts east on Friday, southerly winds to return to
the ArkLaTex bringing a gradual warming trend to the region.
Temperatures on Friday to climb into the lower 70s.

Northwest flow aloft to persist through early in the weekend
allowing for mostly clear skies and dry conditions areawide.
However, conditions to begin to deteriorate on Saturday night into
Sunday as a surface low swings east across the Red River Valley
and mid-level flow becomes west-southwest ahead of an approaching
trough. The combination of surface dewpoint values climbing into
the mid to upper 60s on Sunday and an impulse swinging east
within the mean mid-level flow aloft will generate enough
destabilization during the time of peak heating to support a
chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across the I-20 corridor
on Sunday afternoon.

Northwest flow aloft, combined with a surface high building
across the ArkLaTex, will allow for dry and stable conditions
areawide from Monday through midweek. Temperatures each day to
range from highs in the upper 70s to lows in the 50s. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Low level moisture returning across our airspace but given the
strong pressure gradient in place, cloud heights are just above
3kft attm. Still think there will be a narrow corridor during the
predawn and post dawn hours to see MVFR ceilings across our
airspace but that window will be much shorter for our E TX
terminals and a little longer for our eastern most terminals
including the MLU terminal. Any ceilings should scatter out by mid
to late morning as a cold front invades our airspace from the
northwest. Needless to say windy is an understatement during this
TAF period, both pre-frontal and post-frontal with sustained winds
near 20kts with gusts upwards of 35kts through the entire period.
Wind direction will be south to southwest this morning with wind
becoming west and northwest during the day with the passage of the
cold front.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 154 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon or tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  43  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  81  44  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  69  38  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  73  41  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  77  40  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  41  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  74  41  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  77  43  66  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for ARZ050-051-
     059-060-070-071.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for LAZ001-002-
     010-011.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for OKZ077.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ077.

TX...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...13