


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
546 FXUS64 KSHV 070030 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 730 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - Afternoon thunderstorm chances will pick back up today, generally keeping east of the I-49 corridor, beginning a rinse and repeat pattern which looks to continue throughout this forecast period. - Storms may increase from the north during the middle of the week as a trough swings southward. - Highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s will continue throughout, with a possible warming trend towards the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 The typical summer weather will continue through this week: hot temperatures with scattered afternoon convection that will diminish through the evening. This will be the case tonight, with temperatures dropping into the 70s once the convection dies off. High temperatures tomorrow are expected to make it into the mid 90s along with plenty of humidity that will make apparent temperatures in the triple digits possible. I will still hold off on issuing any heat products, as current estimates have us just shy of criteria for the next few days. The region of high pressure located in northwest Mexico and parts of the Desert Southwest will continue to intensify and help keep areas of East Texas dry tomorrow. Recent runs of the NBM have more widespread PoPs back in the forecast earlier than previously shown, beginning on Tuesday instead of Wednesday. This is due to the high pressure beginning the process of retrograding to the west, which will open East Texas to more of the diurnal and sea- breeze showers that other areas of the region have seen recently. Recent GFS runs have also had that shortwave trough that previously was centered over IA/MO moving further south on Tuesday evening. This system could be enough forcing to take advantage of the warm, moist environment and keep rain continuing for our north and eastern zones through the night on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This would depend, however on the high pressure out west to retrograde far enough for the trough to progress far enough south for the Ark-La-Tx to see any impacts. As such, this part of the forecast is up in the air depending on how upper-level forcing behave. Thursday will return to the previously defined normal, with afternoon thunderstorms favoring areas east of I-49. The western high seems to reintensify by the weekend, which will prevent afternoon showers in the I-20 corridor region generally west of Ruston, LA. Temperatures for the latter half of this week seem to be favoring the mid-upper 90s, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. /57/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 717 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 For the 07/00Z TAF period, scattered convection remains ongoing over the eastern and southern sections of our airspace early this evening. Therefore, have kept VCTS included at a few terminals for the first few hours of the period with KELD also having tempo TSRA given the latest radar trends. Otherwise, VFR conditions should be generally prevailing throughout the period with higher convective debris clouds lingering overnight. Although not included in this TAF cycle, will have to watch for the potential of some patchy fog closer to daybreak in areas where rainfall has occurred today. For the latter half of the period, look for an expansive cu field once again on Monday with scattered convection expected by mid to late afternoon so went with VCTS starting around 07/21Z. Winds will be primarily from the S/SW between 5-10 kts although lighter and more variable overnight with higher gusts possible invof convection. /19/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 77 95 76 93 / 20 40 20 60 MLU 74 96 74 94 / 20 40 10 60 DEQ 71 93 71 91 / 0 30 10 50 TXK 76 96 74 94 / 10 30 10 50 ELD 73 96 72 93 / 20 40 20 60 TYR 74 93 74 91 / 0 20 0 40 GGG 74 94 74 92 / 0 30 10 50 LFK 73 94 74 93 / 20 30 10 60 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...19