206
FXUS63 KSGF 212236
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
536 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect across the entire area until 7 PM.
  Gusty south to southwest winds of 35 to 45 mph and minimum
  relative humidity values around 20 to 25%.

- Elevated fire danger persists through the weekend into early
  next week.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms likely (50-90%) Saturday night
  into Sunday morning. There is a low chance (5%) for an
  isolated strong to severe thunderstorm capable of producing
  hail up to the size of ping pongs along and north of Highway
  60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Current water vapor imagery paired with RAP analysis depicts a
mid-level shortwave across the northern Plains with a subtle
upper-level shortwave trough currently traversing Missouri. Very
little impact to the surface is attributed to the subtle upper-
level wave. However, the shortwave across the northern Plains is
forcing a deepening low-pressure system moving across MN/WI. An
attendant surface cold front extends south through the central
Plains. The associated mass response into the low pressure
system is increasing southerly winds across our area. Joplin is
observing wind gusts right around just above 45 mph and
Springfield is gusting between 30 and 40 mph. Joplin and areas
around the I-49 corridor are intermittently hitting Wind
Advisory criteria, but we are not expecting persistence of
these conditions to issue a short-fused advisory at this point
in time. Nevertheless, expect intermittent gusts up to 45 mph
are through the late afternoon hours. These gusts paired with
observed relative humidities below 25% are verifying a Red Flag
Warning in effect for the entire area until 7 PM. High
temperatures are on track to each the middle to upper 60s today.


Red Flag Warning in effect for the entire area until 7 PM:

Observed fuels are currently between 6-10%. Additionally,
observed relative humidities are between 19-26% as of 2 PM. With
a couple more hours of daytime mixing, we could see some further
dropping of RHs to the 15-20% range in some places. This will
continue to produce Red Flag conditions until 7 PM. Some fires
and hot spots have been noted today, though it is a bit
difficult to detect these with cloud cover obscuring satellite
view to the ground. Nevertheless, fires have been reported and
any burning is strongly discouraged, as has been the story this
past week.

After the Red Flag expires, lows will drop into the middle to
upper 30s tonight.


Elevated fire danger persists through the weekend:

Relatively dry air, slightly warmer temperatures in the upper
60s to lower 70s, and modest winds will continue Elevated Fire
Danger through at least Tuesday. See the Fire Weather section at
the bottom of this discussion for more details on each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Showers and a few thunderstorms likely late Saturday night:

Another trough is progged to dive into the northern Plains
Saturday night, finally advecting in some appreciable moisture
across the Ozarks. The westerly flow at the base of the trough
will advect an elevated mixed layer eastward on top of the
low-level moisture. This will create a setup for elevated
instability Saturday night. A 40-60 kt low-level jet ahead of
the system will kick-start strong warm air advection (keeping
low temperatures in the 50s) and initiate elevated showers and
thunderstorms across southern Missouri (60-90% chance).


Low chance for severe thunderstorms capable of large hail:

Individual CAM soundings show skinny instability profiles
across Missouri. This would normally decrease confidence on
amount of instability for severe weather, however, analysis of
HREF mean and member soundings show pretty good agreement in
500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE despite the skinny profiles. This gives
good confidence that enough elevated instability should be
present for thunderstorms Saturday night.

Southerly surface flow beneath 40-60 kts of westerly 500 mb flow
will promote large curved hodographs with 50-60 kts of 0-6 km
bulk shear. Since storms will be elevated above 1 km or so,
lopping off the lowest 1 km of the hodograph still gives 50-60
kts of effective bulk shear with generally straight hodographs.
This will be enough for elevated splitting supercells if
instability can be realized. Furthermore, HREF hodographs do
show backing above the inflow layer, which may even favor left-
moving supercells. Either way, any elevated supercell that can
develop will be capable of producing hail up to the size of ping
pongs, possibly even gold balls. Winds are less of a concern
with a nocturnal inversion, though they can`t be ruled out. The
large hail parameter ahead of the system has values of 4-6 along
and north of Highway 60, which research suggests max hail size
of ping pongs to golf balls. This is mainly driven by 7-8 C/km
mid-level lapse rates within the EML. RAP forecast decreases
these through the night, but if they can stay somewhat steady,
hail size may be slightly increased.

All that being said, coverage of any potential severe
thunderstorms will be low, as the Storm Prediction Center has a
Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for areas along and north of Highway 60
(5% chance of isolated large hail).


Area Forecast for rest of the week:

After the system moves through, the trough will stall out over
the northeast CONUS, allowing northwesterly flow to dominate
over our region. The cold front from the system will also keep
moisture locked away in the Gulf for much of the week, keeping
our area within a dry airmass through at least Tuesday. See the
Fire Weather section for more details on these concerns.

Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the middle 60s to lower 70s
with lows in the upper 30s Sunday night and middle to upper 40s
Monday night. A warming trend through the week then commences as
broad and amplified upper-level ridge slowly translates into the
region. Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s,
and slowly warm up to the lower 80s by Friday. Lows will be in
the 40s Tuesday night, rising to the middle 50s Thursday and
Friday night. Confidence is pretty high in these temperatures
and the warming trend as NBM spreads are low and the ridge looks
to be pretty pronounced in most global models.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with passing
high clouds at times. Surface winds will gradually veer from
southwest to west and then northwest tonight. Winds will then
turn southerly on Saturday morning and afternoon. Speeds/gusts
will be highest through 03z, decreasing overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

It`s a broken record of dry weather and windy conditions through
at least Tuesday. The good news is that winds will stay modest
after today, but will still be enough for at least Elevated Fire
Weather concerns. At the moment, they do not look strong enough
for Red Flag Warnings, but as high resolution guidance comes
into range, this could change with subsequent forecasts. Below
are some fire weather parameters through Tuesday:

Sunday:

High Temperatures: 65-75 F
Minimum Relative Humidity: 25-35%
Sustained Winds: NW 15-20 mph
Wind Gusts: 20-30 mph

Monday:

High Temperatures: 62-70 F
Minimum Relative Humidity: 20-25%
Sustained Winds: WNW 8-12 mph
Wind Gusts: 15-20 mph

Tuesday:

High Temperatures: 67-75 F Minimum
Relative Humidity: 25-35%
Sustained Winds: NW 15-20 mph
Wind Gusts: 20-30 mph

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Burchfield
FIRE WEATHER...Perez