358
FXUS61 KRNK 220140
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
940 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
There is a low chance of rain for parts of West Virginia on
Saturday associated with a passing cold front. Otherwise the
rest of the region will be dry, warm and windy. A large low
pressure system will bring showers to much of the area late
Sunday into Monday. Temperatures remain at or just below normal
through the middle of next week, but temperatures will
gradually warm towards the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 938 PM EDT Friday...

No major changes are planned for this particular update. High
level cloud cover continues to spread across the region, and
this trend will continue into the early morning of Saturday.
Have made minor adjustments to hourly temperatures, dew points
and sky cover based upon the latest observations and expected
trends into the early morning hours of Saturday.

As of 632 PM EDT Friday...

High level cloud cover is advancing into the region from the
west in association with a disturbance moving through the Great
Lakes region. As the evening and night progress, look for a
continued increase in coverage and thickening and gradual
lowering of the cloud cover, especially across northwest
sections of the forecast area. A very small chances exists for
some light rain/snow showers for an hour or so either side of
sunrise across portions of western Greenbrier County, WV. Have
adjusted hourly temperatures, dew points, RHs, wind speed/gusts,
and sky cover based upon the latest observations and expected
trends through the evening hours.

As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry and sunny today with winds becoming lighter through the
evening and overnight.

2) Fire danger becoming a bigger concern for Saturday with dry,
warm, and gusty conditions.

High pressure building over the southeast states this afternoon
as upper ridging builds in overhead. This will begin to allow
winds to subside through this evening and overnight. Should see
just light winds overnight with possible a few gusts along the
ridgetops. Sunny skies, but some residual cold air advection
behind the departing front will keep temperatures on the cooler
side today, especially in the mountains. Downsloping east of the
mountains should allow for upper 50s to lower 60s.

An upper wave moves into the Great Lakes overnight and quickly
swings into southern Canada on Saturday. Very warm temperatures
are expected east of the mountains, along with increasingly
gusty west winds areawide in response to the mostly dry front
passing through the region. A well mixed environment will
promote very low RH values by late morning and into the early
afternoon. Concerns are increasing for fire danger on Saturday.
Please see the Fire Weather section for more details concerning
Saturday.

Outside of a brief period of spotty showers in the mountains on
Friday morning, most of the region will remain dry and mostly
sunny through Saturday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1140 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for showers to cross the Appalachian
Mountains during late Sunday into Monday.

2) Gusty winds are expected for Sunday afternoon through late
Monday.

High pressure should cross the Mid Atlantic on Saturday night to
bring dry weather and decreasing winds. However, a fast zonal
flow aloft will ensure that systems move quickly across the
eastern United States. A low pressure system should approach the
Appalachian Mountains by late Sunday, which will bring
increasing winds from the south. Showers should arrive in the
mountains during Sunday evening and spread towards the Piedmont
between Sunday night and early Monday morning. The wind should
shift towards the west after the frontal passage and gust up to
35 mph along the higher elevations on Monday. Downslope flow
should keep the Piedmont mild with highs near 70 degrees by
Monday afternoon. Drier air will arrive by late Monday, but the
wind may not subside much through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1140 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for showers on Tuesday, but mountain
snow showers could follow for Tuesday night.

2) Gusty winds are possible during Tuesday and Wednesday.

3) Drier conditions and lighter winds are anticipated towards
the end of the work week.

An upper level trough will settle over the eastern United States
in the wake of the departing low pressure system from earlier
in the week. A weak system within this trough should approach
the Appalachian Mountains on Tuesday to bring a chance of rain
showers along with continued gusty west winds. Colder air behind
this system could spark a change from rain to snow showers in
the highest elevations west of the Blue Ridge by Tuesday night.
Drier air will arrive sometime on Wednesday as high pressure
enters the Ohio River Valley. The gusty winds should slowly fade
during Wednesday night and Thursday, but they will completely
subside by Thursday night once the center of high pressure
reaches the Mid Atlantic. Friday appears dry and mild as the
flow turns toward the south.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions are expected through the conclusion of the valid
TAF forecast period, 00Z Sunday/8PM EDT Saturday.

While winds are expected to decrease this evening, look for a
gradual increase late tonight into early morning hours of
Saturday. Prior to surface winds increasing, an increasing jet
off the surface should yield a period of low level wind shear
across portions of the mountains a few hours prior to sunrise.
Once the sunrises, and the boundary layer mixes, look for
increasing winds/gusts through Saturday.

A passing front will be primarily dry for the region. At best
there may be some patchy -ra/-sn across the higher terrain west
of KLWB a couple of hours either side of sunrise Saturday.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Expect gusty westerly winds to 25 kts through Saturday night,
gradually decreasing on Sunday. VFR areawide Sunday.

Another low pressure system will bring the chance for widespread
rain and sub-VFR conditions by late Sunday night into midday
Monday, with gusty westerly winds Monday. A weak system may
bring yet another chance for rain showers and sub-VFR conditions
in the mountains Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

     RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA ON
SATURDAY...

ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS VIRGINIA
SATURDAY...

Day of drying today will begin to allow for fuel moistures to
decrease again from recent rainfall. Most rain fell across
central Virginia yesterday with amounts around 0.25" and 0.50".
This should prevent the need for a Red Flag Warning across
Virginia, but increased fire danger will still be a concern on
Saturday with relative humidity into the teens, very warm
temperatures and gusty winds to 20 mph.

Less rain fell across North Carolina, therefore fire danger has
become an increasing concern on Saturday, with relative
humidity expected to be in the teens, along with gusts up to 25
mph and warm temperatures. Confidence has increased enough to
issue a Red Flag Warning for locations east of the mountains in
North Carolina.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/DS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG/DS
FIRE WEATHER...BMG