057
FXUS61 KRLX 220234
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1034 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry tonight. Turning windy with rain chances for some on
Saturday. Fire weather concerns again in the afternoon.
Additional rounds of showers Sunday and into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1033 PM Friday...

No major changes with the forecast other than temperatures and
dew point updates. Winds are being reported as light across the
forecast area and temperatures are dropping allowing for RH
percentages to start recovering.

As of 814 PM Friday...

Updated Fire SPS for the affected states/counties. Another
afternoon and evening of fire weather concerns expected
Saturday. RH values will recover tonight, but will drop into
the 25 to 35 percent range again Saturday afternoon. Breezy to
gusty southwest to west winds are still expected as well with a
passing disturbance. Chances for isolated showers will traverse
the area in the morning into the afternoon, but confidence is
low in widespread rainfall. The higher chances will remain to
our north. More likely the far northeastern mountains in our
forecast area will pick up a brief shower than anywhere else.

As of 330 PM Friday...

Lingering high pressure will provide dry weather through most of
tonight, with the next upper disturbance crossing through the
region late tonight and on Saturday. The main point of focus for
today is elevated fire weather conditions across much of the
forecast area, outside of locations that received heavier
showers or accumulating snow last night. Mostly sunny skies
(amid SCT cirrus) will allow for mixing heights AOA H850,
bringing drier air aloft to the surface, along with breezes of
15-20+ mph at times. Minimum afternoon RH values of 20-30% are
expected across the area. Given such, a SPS for fire weather
concerns has been issued for much of the forecast area after
collaborating with neighboring offices and forestry partners.
High temperatures will top out ~ 5 degrees below normal, with
mid 50s across the lowlands. Lows tonight will be in the mid 30s
to mid 40s across the lowlands, with upper 20s to upper 30s in
the mountains.

The aforementioned crossing upper disturbance will bring the
chance (30-50%) for light showers on Saturday across the
central/northern CWA, starting as snow showers across the higher
mountain elevations, with all rain for the lowlands. Little to
no accumulation is expected in the mountains. High temperatures
will be similar to that of today, likely a few degrees warmer.
Minimum afternoon RH values will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s
across the south/west portion of the CWA, which will once again
result in elevated fire weather concerns for those areas, given
wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph across the lowlands. Wind gusts of
30 to 40 mph are expected in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

Key Points:
* Elevated fire weather conditions possible Sunday afternoon
* Much needed wetting rain expected Sunday night into Monday

Traversing high pressure brings dry conditions to the area
Saturday night in advance of the next disturbance on Sunday. Low
temperatures will be on the chilly side, with mid 20s to mid
30s expected amid mostly clear skies and light flow.

A warm front will lift north through the area on Sunday, mainly
if not entirely dry, bringing a slight warmup w/ temperatures ~
5 degrees warmer than on Saturday. An associated cold front will
quickly push through Sunday night into early Monday morning,
bringing SCT showers and perhaps ISO thunderstorms. In advance
of this, breezy winds and low afternoon RH could result in
slightly elevated fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon, but
much of this will depend on when low-level moisture advection
begins to overtake the area. Regardless, a much needed and
wetting rain is expected area-wide Sunday night into Monday
morning.

The region quickly dries out on Monday amid breezy to gusty
post-frontal CAA, with high temperatures returning to near
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

The long term period will be dominated by a mid-amplitude
longwave trough across the eastern CONUS w/ embedded/weak
shortwaves periodically impacting the region amid the rather
progressive pattern. This results in periodic/light
precipitation chances (rain lowlands, with snow showers
possible in the mountains), but with significant
timing/location uncertainty that is typical with the
aforementioned pattern. Given such, PoPs have been capped at
30-50% throughout the period, with the best chance of
precipitation currently being Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The trough is progged to shift east late in the work week,
resulting in a general warming trend across the area by Friday
amid return flow. High temperatures will be approximately 5
degrees below normal Tuesday-Thursday, with a return to above
normal by Friday. There could also be renewed fire weather
concerns once the area dries out from Sunday night`s rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 752 PM Friday...

VFR conditions expected to reign through the period, outside of
some MVFR clouds and isolated showers across the northern sites
in our forecast area. This is reflected with PROB30 groups at
CKB and PKB between ~09z and ~15z.

Winds will be south to southwest tonight. Winds will be light
early this evening, but a disturbance approaching from the west
will cause winds to shift more SSW, eventually westerly, after
~06z. Winds will also increase overnight and could be breezy or
gusty through tomorrow gusting between 25 and 35 mph. Locally
higher gusts across the ridges of the mountains are possible.
LLWS was added at most sites overnight where sfc winds will be
calm.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Winds will likely vary at times overnight.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 03/22/25
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible late Sunday into Monday morning
with showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GW
NEAR TERM...GW/LTC
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...LTC