472
FXUS65 KREV 301942
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1242 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Above normal temperatures persist across the region with
   widespread minor to moderate HeatRisk present today.

*  Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this
   afternoon into evening, mainly in northeastern California with
   lesser chances south around the Sierra and into the Tahoe Basin.

*  A minor cooldown begins tomorrow through the holiday, with
   daily afternoon precipitation chances in the region through at
   least Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A couple more days with above average temperatures, and Moderate
HeatRisk. Make sure to stay hydrated today and tomorrow, take
frequent breaks in shade if you are in the sun, and remember to look
before you lock for children and pets in vehicles. These toasty days
ahead will moderate by midweek toward more seasonal averages, with
the coolest day looking to be the holiday. As we look beyond the
holiday, temperatures will be on the rise to well-above average
once again.

Showers this afternoon may begin to appear in far northern Lassen
and Modoc counties and possibly into far northern Washoe, where
chances will be between 15-25% for today. Further south, along the
Sierra and into the Tahoe Basin, there are chances around 5-15%.
Showers will begin to develop around 1 PM this afternoon, with some
showers potentially lingering around the Tahoe Basin and into Alpine
County into the overnight hours. However, recent guidance has
suggested the overnight shower chances have dropped to 10% or less.
In areas where showers do form, be aware of the skies as lightning
and gusty outflows are the main threat with summer afternoon
showers. The shower chances shift slightly eastward for Tuesday,
with chances as high as 20-40% for Lassen, Modoc and northern Washoe
counties. Chances for the Sierra and Tahoe Basin will range 10-25%,
with higher chances in the northern Sierra into the Tahoe Basin.
Reno-Carson-Minden area will see afternoon shower chances around 10-
20% as well. Wednesday, we start seeing the showers become more
widespread, but chances stay in the range of 10-25% for most of
western Nevada and northeastern California. Some showers may even
spread as far east as the Basin and Range, with 10-15% chances
there. Thursday, showers appear in blended guidance along the Oregon
border, and for the holiday. Once we settle into next weekend, a
drying trend emerges as high pressure resumes across the
region.

One final note about the shower chances, there may be little
precipitation that hits the ground, with the best day to see wetting
rains on Wednesday. Any storms that fire may be of the dry thunder
variety today and Tuesday. Gusty winds Tuesday may increase the Fire
Weather concern for Lassen, Modoc and northern Washoe, as any spark
that ignites may easily carry in the gusty winds. See the Fire
Weather section below for more details. HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

*  VFR conditions through the afternoon, when gusty westerly
   winds return around 00Z, to about 20-25 kts. For terminals
   across western Nevada, heat-density issues may arise today and
   tomorrow afternoon. For KSVE, a 15-25% chance of afternoon
   showers exists today and tomorrow. Shower chances also appear
   for KTRK/KTVL Tuesday afternoon, and widespread for all
   terminals on Wednesday. Any shower may have the potential to
   produce gusty and erratic outflows up to 50+ kts in it`s
   vicinity. HRICH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

*  Isolated dry lightning and strong, erratic outflow winds with
   gusts of 50+ mph are possible (15-25% chances) for far northern
   Lassen County into far northern Washoe County during the
   afternoon and evening hours today. Storms today will see the
   potential for dry lightning strikes due to high storm bases and
   fast storm motions. Lesser chances for isolated dry
   thunderstorms (10-15%) are also seen in the Sierra down to the
   Tahoe Basin, Alpine and northern Mono County late today.

*  Coverage of storms expands east into the Sierra front on
   Tuesday afternoon and farther into western NV for Wednesday
   afternoon. These storms will be a mix of wet and dry storms
   with the best chances for dry strikes expected again in areas
   of northern Lassen to northern Washoe County on Tuesday.

*  Areas of localized critical conditions are possible by mid-week
   as breezy and dry conditions return mid-week. -078/Fuentes/HRICH

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$