944
FXUS62 KRAH 270420
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1220 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will build across the Carolinas through
tonight, then offshore on Thursday. A warm front will lift northeast
across the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic on Friday, with following
Bermuda high pressure that will extend across the South Atlantic
states through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 PM Wednesday...

Surface observations show a majority of locations light and
variable to mostly calm winds. With the combination of mostly
clear skies, good radiational cooling will continue into
Thursday morning. Latest statistical guidance largely agrees
with the afternoon forecast, with temperatures dropping into the
lower to mid 30s across of much of central North Carolina. A
Frost Advisory remains in effect for the Piedmont, western
Sandhills, and northern and central Coastal Plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Wednesday...

Following the shortwave trough that will move across and offshore
the nrn Middle Atlantic and Northeast by the start of the period, a
nwly polar jet now directed into NC will retreat newd and across the
lwr Great Lakes and nrn Middle Atlantic, within a regime of rising
heights that will maximize there through early Fri.

At the surface, ~1027 mb Canadian high pressure now centered over
the mid MS Valley will crest over the Carolinas early Thu, then move
offshore by afternoon-evening. Within the return flow regime to its
west, a sharp frontal zone will retreat from the TN to OH Valleys.

The aforementioned rising heights and developing, return sly/sswly
surface flow will yield warming over cntl NC, with high temperatures
mostly in the mid-upr 60s. While a band of mostly frontogenetically-
forced stratiform rain will lift across the TN Valley and srn
Appalachians, only virga is expected by the time it reaches the nw
NC Piedmont Thu night, where it will be falling from ~7-8 thousand
ft ceilings atop a deeply dry sub-cloud layer. Light swly stirring
and variably cloudy skies Thu night should keep low temperatures in
the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...


Friday and Saturday: Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge will progress ewd
across the region Fri/Fri night, as a potent srn stream s/w tracks
ewd across the srn Plains/lwr MS Valley. The s/w will then continue
enewd across the Deep South/TN Valley on Sat. At the surface, high
pressure off the Carolina coast will slowly migrate ewd toward
Bermuda Fri-Sat, with increasing sly return flow advecting warm,
moist air into the area. Expect generally dry weather to prevail,
although a disturbance aloft could result in some rain along the VA
border on Fri, with moderating temperatures and increasing low-level
moisture.

Saturday night through Wednesday: Aloft, the aforementioned srn
stream s/w will continue lifting enewd across the region Sat night-
Sun night, while a pair of trailing nrn stream shortwaves move ewd
from the Intermountain West to the Great Lakes. The srn stream s/w
will move off the Southeast US coast on Mon, while one of the nrn
stream shortwaves continues ewd across the Great Lakes and Northeast
US. There are still some difference in the medium-range guidance wrt
the evolution of the two shortwaves Mon/Tue and the overall upper
level pattern thereafter, with the EC and GFS completely out of
phase with one another by Wed/Wed night. At the surface, a low
pressure system will develop over the cntl Plains Sat/Sat night,
with some model differences already showing up (whether there will
be one low (GFS) or two (EC)) and impacting the track of the system
as it moves across the cntl and ern CONUS through Mon night/Tue.
Despite these differences, there is fairly good agreement over
central NC, with a warm front lifting nwd across the area Sat
night/Sun morn and the cold front moving in from the west Mon
eve/night and settling south of the area by Tue morning. Arctic high
pressure will ridge swd into the area in the Wake of the front for
Tue/Tue night, but how long it sticks around remains uncertain at
this time.

Convection: Chances for showers/storms will increase Sat night and
persist through Sun and possibly into early Sun night, associated
with the srn stream s/w aloft. A brief lull in convective activity
is expected mid/late Sun night as the s/w exits the area, with
another round of showers and better chance for storms moving across
the area along/ahead of the front Mon/Mon night. All of central NC
is currently in a Day 6 15% area from the SPC for Mon/Mon night, so
will be keeping a close eye on how the forecast evolves and the
potential for some strong to severe storms across the area. Tue
should be largely dry and the weather for Wed remains uncertain at
this time.

Temperatures: Above to well above normal temperatures are expected
through Mon night, warmest Sun night (lows upper 50s to mid 60s) and
Mon (highs mid 70s to low 80s).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1220 AM Thursday...

There is high confidence in VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF
period. Winds be rather light to start the period, then slowly veer
to be out of the west and southwest Thu afternoon between 5 and 8
kt. Winds will be south to southwest Thu night around 5 kt.

Outlook: A period of LLWS may be possible Fri and Sat morning,
however, it appears marginal at this point. VFR should largely
prevail through Sat. Showers and storms will be possible Sun and Mon
with our next frontal system. It may also be quite breezy on Mon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1045 PM Wednesday...

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

The combination of low relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and
dry fuels will continue a risk of adverse fire behavior over
central North Carolina. While winds are not expected to be
strong, gusts around 15 mph are expected during the afternoon,
continuing the enhanced fire danger conditions.

Gradually recovering RHs through the weekend will mitigate the
relative higher threat of increased fire danger through Thu.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Helock/Swiggett
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Kren
FIRE WEATHER...Helock/Swiggett/MWS