844
FXUS65 KPUB 212326
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
526 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight through midnight tomorrow
  night for the Central Mountains due to persistent snowfall
  and gusty winds.

- High fire danger for much of the I-25 corridor on Saturday due
  to low humidity and gusty winds.

- Dry and warm conditions persist into next week, with near-
  critical fire weather conditions over portions of our area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Currently...broad, northwest flow continues across southern Colorado
this afternoon, with mid to high level cirrus in teh lee of the
mountains.  Winds across the Plains are generally east to southeast,
with a few locations gusting to near 20 mph.  Temperatures are warm
with mid 50s to lower 60s on the Plains, and 40s across the San Luis
Valley.

Rest of today and tonight...the broad northwest flow across the
region will continue overnight.  Embedded energy will lead to light
to moderate snowfall from the La Garita Range, north across the
Central Mountains.  Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches may be
possible through morning, with the highest totals north of
Cottonwood Pass.  Elsewhere, dry conditions will prevail through
morning.  A few wind gusts in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo and
Rampart Ranges may help keep overnight lows mild, with upper 30s to
lower 40s.  Further east on the Plains, upper 20s to lower 30s are
forecast.

Saturday...persistent northwest flow will continue through the day,
with continued light to moderate snowfall from the La Garita Range,
north across the Central Mountains.  An additional 2 to 5 inches,
with locally higher amounts north of Cottonwood Pass are possible
through the afternoon.  Dry conditions will continue across the
Plains.  Red Flag Warnings have been issued for the I-25 corridor,
along with Crowley and Otero Counties.  Humidity values are forecast
to fall to near 10 to 15 percent by the afternoon.  The
northwesterly flow aloft will also mix down,with 30 to 40 mph wind
gusts possible along the I-25 corridor, with the strongest winds in
gap wind prone areas.  The combination of low humidity and gusty
winds will lead to dangerous fire weather conditions, and any
outdoor burning activities should be postponed until another day.
Temperatures will warm nicely with upper 60s to lower 70s across the
Plains, and 50s over the San Luis Valley. Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Late Saturday night into Sunday, a quick-moving upper trough will
depart our area, with breezy northwest flow aloft. Snow showers and
some blowing snow will linger over the peaks of the Continental
Divide, along with gusty winds. Additional accumulations over the
Central Mountains should only be an inch or so. The rest of the
precipitation wanes by Sunday morning, as a ridge of high pressure
builds to the west. High temperatures on Sunday will be cooler,
thanks to the previous evening`s passing cold front, with highs in
the 50s-60s across the area.

Looking into next week, the broad upper ridge will move over our
region, leading to dry and generally quiet conditions through most
of the long-term forecast period. High temperatures will steadily
warm each day, hitting the 70s across the area by Tuesday while the
NBM is showing low 80s over the plains next Thursday. Critical fire
weather conditions will be a concern with how dry it is, but the
need for any fire highlights will depend on the wind. Currently,
winds beneath the high pressure look too weak to warrant any strong
gusts, but near-critical conditions will be possible each day,
particularly over gap flow areas near the terrain.

Late next week, long-range model guidance shows a low pushing
through to our south, as a broader trough builds off the Pacific
Northwest. Still too far out to be certain of any details, but the
consensus is for winds, and therefore fire concerns, to pick up late
next week ahead of our next period of more active and unsettled
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 519 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the
next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB
and KALS. Mid and high level cloudiness is expected for most
locations through the period. E-SE surface winds will continue
at KCOS and KPUB this evening, occasionally gusting to 20-25
kts, but then die down after 04z. Plan on 6-10 kt S-SW winds
kicking in at all three sites right around 14z, 15z, then by 17z
strong westerly winds developing, 15-25 kts with gusts to 30-35
kts through the end of the forecast period. Moore

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight MDT
Saturday night for COZ058-060.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ227>233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MOORE