914
FXUS66 KPQR 131156
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
355 AM PST Fri Feb 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will bring another round of rain with light
mountain snow Friday into the weekend. Lower chances of
precipitation on Sunday as low pressure stalls off the northern
California coast. There is moderate confidence in the pattern
remaining cool and wet through next week as upper level troughing
persists over the region, though there is low confidence is exact
details at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday Night...Water vapor satellite
imagery shows a broad upper level trough extending south out of the
Gulf of Alaska into the northeast Pacific. A weak cold front
offshore will slowly push inland today bringing another round of
rain later today, and mountain snow tonight. Generally, rainfall
amounts through Saturday morning will be highest along the coast,
Coast Range and Cascades, potentially ranging between 0.25-1.00
inches (10th to 75th percentile); while inland locations are more
likely to see around a tenth up to a half inch of rainfall. By this
evening, snow levels are expected to be around 3500 ft in southwest
Washington, and around 4000-4500 ft across the north Oregon
Cascades. Total snowfall amounts for overnight tonight into Saturday
morning at the Cascade passes are likely to range between 1 to 5
inches.

The pattern remains somewhat active through the weekend as the upper
level trough digs south and a nearly vertically stacked low pressure
system develops off the northern California coast. This will
maintain chances for some light precipitation later Saturday,
highest across southern portions of the forecast area, with chances
decreasing into Sunday. /DH

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...There is decent agreement
among ensembles that an anomalously deep upper level trough drops
south out of Alaska, bringing colder air aloft to the region early
next week. Upper disturbances will also produce periods of
precipitation across the region. 850 mb temperatures are likely to
be in the -3 to -6 C range, which is marginal for snow to the valley
floor with onshore flow. The NBM maintains low probabilities for
lowland conversational snow at around 1-10% overnight and early each
morning with higher probabilities for elevations above 500 ft. Any
snow that does accumulate would quickly melt as temperatures rise
above freezing each day, thereby limiting potential impacts.

Confidence in snowfall totals over the Cascades remains low but
trends support coinciding cold air and moisture which should bring
healthy snowfall. Accumulation at pass level seems likely but exact
timing and amounts are unclear so will continue to monitor the
pattern for impacts. The latest guidance gives the best chances for
exceeding 6 inches of snow during a 24-hr period for Thursday
through Thursday night, at around 50-60%. This time period also
corresponds with snow levels potentially falling to around 1500 ft.
There is also a chance for snow to reach pass level in the Coast
Range, mainly around highway 6 and 26. 19/DH

&&

.AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft today will bring increasing clouds
ahead of a frontal system. As of 10z Friday, low VFR to MVFR
stratus has expanded along the coast and through the Willamette
Valley. Expect MVFR conditions to persist along the coast through
the TAF period. Rain will begin pushing onshore by 19-20z today,
and spread inland later this afternoon. Inland conditions are
expected to deteriorate to predominately MVFR after 00-04z
Saturday with CIGs falling behind the initial frontal passage.
Winds generally remain light, except increasing out of the south
to around 10-15 kt with the frontal passage.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...A stratus deck with CIGs around 3500-4500 ft
has formed over the area. There is a low (20-30%) chance that
CIGs drop to MVFR through 18z. Rain returns around 21z this
afternoon as a front moves across the region. Chances for MVFR
conditions increase to around 50-60% by 03z Saturday. Southeast
winds expected around 3-6 kt. /DH

&&

.MARINE...A cold front will move across the coastal waters today.
Expect southerly winds 10-20 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt
this afternoon as the front pushes inland. Meanwhile, a long
period west-northwesterly swell will push into the waters building
seas to around 13 to 15 ft at 16-17 seconds later this morning.
There remains a 10-20% chance that seas exceed 15 ft this morning.
Small Craft Advisories remain in place through Saturday morning
for all waters, and through Saturday night for the outer coastal
waters. Seas gradually subside tonight into Saturday to around 9
to 10 ft. Low pressure develops off the northern California coast
this weekend, bringing north to northeasterly winds across the
waters through Sunday. Gusts up to 25 kt are likely for the outer
coastal waters later Saturday. Active weather returns next week as
a weak low pressure system approaches the area later Monday. Seas
look to build again on Tuesday. /DH

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A high threat for sneaker waves is likely
Friday through Sunday evening due to a long period westerly
swell. Waves can run up significantly farther on a beach than
normal, including over rocks and jetties. Sneaker waves can
suddenly knock people off of their feet and quickly pull them
into the frigid ocean which may lead to serious injury or
drowning. Caution should be used when in or near the water,
especially those who will be razor clamming. Keep children and
pets away from the surf zone. Keep off of jetties, rocks and
logs near the surf zone. If you see someone swept into the sea
do not swim in after them. Call 911 and keep an eye on them
until help arrives. -10

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for PZZ210.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Saturday for PZZ251>253.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ271>273.
&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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