333
FXUS65 KPIH 081945
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
145 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A prolonged period of windy conditions is expected most of the
  week.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of the Upper Snake Plain
  on Monday, with a 60-75% chance of gusts exceeding 55 mph in
  some areas.

- Cool temperatures Tuesday behind the cold front, but mild
  temperatures return for later in the week as gusty winds and
  high elevation showers persist.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Satellite imagery shows flow aloft already flattening across
the region ahead of shortwave moving through the PacNW. Stratus
shield that was in place earlier this morning is rapidly
retreating north on the nose of gusty southerly winds in place
over much of East Idaho. Warm temperatures in place especially
across the southern portions of the Snake Plain in the I-86
corridor where downslope winds are helping to max warming
potential.

Little has changed with forecast expectations for the week with
fast zonal flow and periods of strong winds throughout the week.
Isolated mountain showers can be expected through Tuesday, but
total liquid precipitation amounts remain light so minimal
impacts are forecast. The story remains the wind as the impact
of concern. 700MB winds ranging 45-55kts per NAM across the
region should be sufficient to support strong winds gusts in
region of enhanced surface gradient Monday. Wind Advisory
remains in place for Monday for a significant portion of the
Snake River Plain. NBM still supportive of a 65-75% chance for
max gusts Monday to exceed 55 mph. This would put portions of
the Arco Desert and the Upper Snake Plain zones close to High
Wind criteria. It would not be a stretch to see a few locations
meet or exceed that, but do not believe it will be widespread so
will continue to hold off for now. Front sags through the region
Monday night, cooling temperatures into Tuesday. Winds remain
strong Tuesday behind the frontal system in continued zonal flow
aloft. Current probabilistic data supports the stronger winds
shifting to the Eastern Magic Valley and Lower Snake Plain
region for Tuesday, with max sustained speeds 30-35 mph.
Additional Wind Advisories may be needed.

Looking ahead to Wednesday and beyond, the flow aloft remains
zonal and strong, with continued strong winds through the week.
Wednesday appears to be the weakest winds, but still 15-25 mph
sustained as of today`s guidance. Moisture flow aloft appears to
increase late in the week, but the zonal flow will keep the
showers confined to higher elevations. If the moisture can
increase, it should lead to light accumulations each period over
higher elevations across the north (from the Sawtooths east to
the Island Park region). Still, winds remain the greatest
concern. Thursday through Saturday look quite windy once again,
with guidance already strongly suggestive of Wind Advisory or
stronger conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Main impact through Monday will be winds. Will have breezy
conditions today with sustained speeds 15 to 20 knots at IDA and
PIH with gusts 25 to 35 knots. Expect MVFR ceilings to lift late
this afternoon at DIJ and IDA. Have winds increasing again after
17Z Monday with sustained winds over 20 knots expected at IDA,
PIH with over 15 knots at the other sites. After 18Z Monday will
see an even greater increase in wind speeds to the 20 to 30
knots sustained range at PIH, IDA and DIJ and 15 to 25 at SUN
and BYI.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for IDZ052>054-065.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...GK