203
FXUS61 KPBZ 081655
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1255 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Dry weather returns. Retained key message about severe weather
potential on Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain/storm chances return Wednesday into Wednesday evening,
with some indications of another round of severe weather.

2) Snow possible on back side of front for Thursday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The setup for the midweek system will take shape on Wednesday as
a strong trough begins to descend southeast into the Great
Lakes and Upper OH Valley region. The trough seems to take on a
slightly negative tilt. The Wednesday afternoon period features
destabilization but the probs from the NBM shows values of 50%
to 70% chance of exceeding 500 J/Kg surface based CAPE. Still a
few factors to ironed out for th event as some lingering
convection.cloud cover could hinder storm development during the
afternoon and evening on Wednesday. Ensembles and operational
models suggest the potential of a prefrontal trough resulting in
convection setting up Wednesday afternoon. Will likely need
some influence from the Hi-Res model input for the event as the
onset approaches closer.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The front is progged to push through the area by 06Z Thursday
allowing some much colder air to filter into the region. This
will result in some snow potential Thursday morning. At this
time, the probs show around 50% to 70% chance for snow totals to
exceed 1 inch. the statistics for the NBM hover around 1 to 2
inches. Given the warmth of the ground, the full 1 to 2 inches
may not be realized. The one caveat would be the higher terrain
and will need to monitored for the potential to get a quick inch
or two.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period as a ridge of high
pressure builds across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Any
remaining stratocu should clear through the rest of the
afternoon, with generally clear skies then expected through
Monday. Mixing will result in gusty W-SW wind this afternoon,
and again on Monday.

Outlook...
VFR is expected through Tuesday under high pressure.
Restriction and rain potential returns Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a warm front lifts north across the region. Rain
and thunderstorms are expected with a late Wednesday/Wednesday
night cold front. The rain should change to snow before ending
Thursday, with the restriction potential continuing.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Shallenberger
AVIATION...WM