054
FXUS63 KPAH 121119
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
619 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms for the
  next several days.

- The strongest storms may pose an isolated to scattered threat
  of damaging winds, heavy rainfall will accompany any storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

We sit this morning firmly in a hot and soupy airmass with
current temps in the upper 70s and dewpoints well into the mid
70s. A light south wind has kicked up ahead of a very
weak/diffuse surface low over western Wisconsin. A line of
showers and isolated thunderstorms is slowly moving east along
I-70 and I-44 in Missouri and Illinois. There is very subtle
jet-level ascent that is departing to the northeast. This shower
activity will probably decrease further through the next couple
of hours as the lift departs and then the residual boundary
should fire back up in the late morning and afternoon. The
wave-train with very small upper level waves looks a little
mis-timed for peak heating today but 91-94 F with dewpoints in
the mid 70s and rich moisture through the lowest 100mb or so
should result in about 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE by the
afternoon. Shear is very weak and storms will likely struggle
for organization but water loaded downdrafts could pose a wind
threat and the strength of cold pools could help briefly upscale
a few features in the weak shear environment. PWAT values are at
2.0-2.1" amid the deep moisture so rainfall rates will likely
also be very high. There should be enough forward motion to
prevent significant issues but flash flooding will be possible
where storms stick around for any length of time.

GFS/ECMWF agree on bringing a little stronger and more focused
shortwave over the area Sunday afternoon. Another round of
wind/flood potential appears possible in the evening. More
afternoon pop-up type showers and storms then look possible each
day for the foreseeable future. An increase in mid and upper
ridging by Wednesday or Thursday may limit coverage somewhat but
most all guidance still spits a little something out in the
afternoon and early evening. We will be approaching heat
advisory by the end of the week but the current forecast falls a
little short although I wouldn`t be shocked for it to warm up a
little given the upper level heights progged.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Convection will be primary flight concern today, prevailing VFR
conditions are expected outside of storms with the possible
exception of scattered ground fog in the early hours Sunday
morning. Showers and storms would begin to be possible by 15-16z
but will be more likely after about 18-19z moving off to the
east. Very heavy rain will cause at least IFR visby restrictions
and gusty winds/downbursts would also be possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG