


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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537 FXUS64 KOUN 121109 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 609 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 606 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - Increasing risk for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and localized flooding beginning this morning and continuing into Sunday. - Some severe weather possible today with the primary threat of wind. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Thunderstorms from the Texas panhandle to southwestern Kansas will spread east this morning. And a surface front near the Oklahoma- Kansas border will serve as an additional focus for more storm development today. Precipitable water values climb today to values between 1.5 and 2 inches, although both NAM and GFS show pockets of 2.25 inches this afternoon. This will lead to storms with very efficient rain production. The areas of heaviest rainfall may not be too widespread, but local areas may see 3 to 4 inches today and tonight. The most likely area to see heavy rainfall will be near the surface front as it sags south, but this could include the OKC metro area this afternoon and tonight. The Flood Watch looks to hit the most likely area of heaviest rainfall and will not make any adjustments to the geography of the watch this morning. Although locally heavy rainfall will be possible, rainfall amounts of one-half inch to an inch and a half will be more common. There is also some potential for strong to possibly severe storms today. MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg are expected today. Deep layer shear will not be terribly strong in general. Winds from wet microbursts are the primary severe weather concern, although hail will also be possible. Coverage of strong or severe storms is not expected to be very widespread, and the issue of heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be the bigger problem today. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Areas of showers and thunderstorms will still be likely Sunday morning with the focus likely shifting into southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Chances continue into the afternoon, although there is a more open question on how widespread these will be and where the most likely area for storms will be. These issues will depend on where the surface front is located, and where specifically the mid-level circulation center and/or any MCV is located to enhance the rain chances. But precipitable water values remain high across southern and eastern portions of the area so locally heavy rainfall will again be possible. We will keep the Flood Watch for tomorrow, although later shifts may be able to adjust what areas are covered by the watch. The mid-level circulation will most likely shift slowly east Monday but will still be in close enough proximity to keep some storm chances. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 The pesky mid-level low finally begins to weaken with a general zonal mid-level flow across the northern and central U.S. with weak flow in the south. But the ridge does not build strongly over the western U.S. or the Plains, so temperatures remain near or slightly below average for this time of year. The operational ECMWF does bring a front down into northern Oklahoma on Thursday as a mid-level wave moves across the northern/central Plains. Even if this occurs, the front looks to quickly weaken and/or lift back north into the central Plains, so any significant cooling is unlikely. But this front could serve as a focus for some storm potential. Otherwise storm chances will depend on any wave in the zonal flow aloft that happens to be far enough south to influence our storm chances. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 VFR/MVFR ceilings this TAF period. Showers/storms will continue across parts of the area during the day today with a decrease in coverage expected early this evening. Additional development is then expected late tonight/early Sunday with the highest chances in parts of southern OK. Strong variable winds will be possible with some of the storms along with heavy rainfall reducing visibility. Winds will gradually shift from southerly to northerly as a boundary slowly moves across portions of the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 85 69 83 70 / 80 60 60 30 Hobart OK 86 67 86 69 / 70 60 50 30 Wichita Falls TX 88 70 87 71 / 70 60 60 40 Gage OK 79 64 84 65 / 70 30 20 20 Ponca City OK 87 68 83 68 / 50 50 40 20 Durant OK 91 72 88 72 / 60 60 70 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ008-009-012>048- 050>052. TX...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ086-089-090. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...25