249
FXUS64 KOUN 191048
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
548 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 542 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

- Critical to extreme fire weather conditions from now through
  late tonight.

- Damaging wind gusts through at least Wednesday morning

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions each afternoon
  through Friday for at least portions of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

A very unusual event continues to unfold across Oklahoma and
northern Texas early this morning.  An advancing Pacific cold
front/dryline is ushering in single digit humidity to the east very
early this morning.  It appears the HRRR has a decent handle on this
as well as wind gusts. While the much drier air pushes into eastern
Oklahoma, another cold front will begin to move into western and
northern Oklahoma. The HRRR predicts there will be a stronger core
of damaging winds that will overspread west central and northwest
Oklahoma between 2 and 3 am. Wind gusts in the 70 to 75 mph
certainly appear possible. Although these winds may not reach
central or north central Oklahoma, there will likely be a period
of 55 to 60 mph winds around 5 to 7 am. Strong and gusty winds
will prevail most of today with a continued chance of damaging
winds this morning across mainly northern Oklahoma. With an
increase in cloud cover and a chance of precipitation across the
northern third of Oklahoma, temperatures will likely remain in the
40s across the northern third of Oklahoma with 50s elsewhere.

Model sounding suggest there is some potential for rain mixing with
or changing to snow across far northern Oklahoma.  The main impact
from any snow will be a reduction in visibility.  The wind will
drastically decrease mainly this evening as the upper low continues
to move northeast.

As far as current headlines:

Plan to let the Dust Advisory for parts of western Oklahoma and
northern Texas expire 4 am. Although there may be a local hazard of
plowing dust/dirt near plowed fields, most surface observations
indicate little reduction in visibility due to dust.

Will keep the High Wind Warning the same. However, it is possible
that southern parts of the High Wind Warning may be converted
over to a Wind Advisory later this morning. Soundings suggest
some potential for gusts near 60 into the afternoon across
far northern Oklahoma.

The Wind Advisory will remain the same.

Given some of the current wildfires and expected winds today, plan
to extend the Red Flag Warning through the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

After several days of very windy conditions, Thursday will start out
on the calm side.  During the day, a shortwave trough is expected to
move across the northern and central Rockies.  As this occurs, the
wind will shift back to a southerly direction and increase during the
afternoon, especially western Oklahoma.  Very dry air and gusty
winds will elevate fire weather concerns again.  The aforementioned
shortwave trough will skirt the southern Plains on Friday, with a
cold front pushing across the state during the day. Currently, it
appears the northerly winds behind the front on Friday will not
be overly strong.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

A southerly wind will return early Saturday in response to low
pressure developing across the Panhandles.  This will result in
decent moisture return, especially into southern and central
Oklahoma (mid to upper 50 dewpoints).  The warm sector will likely
remained capped in Oklahoma through Saturday afternoon or evening.
Saturday night, elevated thunderstorms will be possible along a
northward moving warm front, but this activity will likely remain
well to our north and east.  By early Sunday morning, a cold front
will begin to push southward across parts of northern and western
Oklahoma.  The front is expected to clear far southeastern Oklahoma
by early afternoon Sunday.  With the timing of the front, it appears
better chances for storms along the cold front will generally remain
south and east of the area.

Surface high pressure will build over the area Sunday night, so
the wind will be light. Another cold front is expected to move
across the area Monday into Tuesday, but rain and thunderstorm
chances will remain rather low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

A strong cold front will continue to push across the area early
this morning, shifting winds from the southwest to northwest. Wind
gusts through 15-16Z will be near 45-50 knots with a gradual
decrease in gusts during the late morning to early afternoon. The
stronger wind gusts may continue near the Kansas/Oklahoma border.
Some light rain will also be possible which will mainly impact
the WWR and PNC terminals. Winds will decrease rapidly during the
late afternoon/early evening. Overall, VFR conditions are expected
with perhaps MVFR ceilings near PNC/WWR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  50  34  61  45 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         53  29  63  42 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  57  34  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           48  25  65  42 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     45  29  61  44 /  40   0   0   0
Durant OK         59  38  61  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>018-
     021>024-033>036-038.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>030-
     033>040-044>046-050.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ019-020-025>032-
     037-039>048-050>052.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...06