538
FXUS61 KOKX 052354
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
754 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend. A cold
front will approach from the Great Lakes on Monday, passing
slowly across on Tuesday or even stalling nearby into mid week.
A more robust frontal system may approach by the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High pressure centered over the western Atlantic ridges into the
region with a light S-SW flow after coastal sea breezes die
down. This will result in higher dewpoints and lower
temperatures compared to last night. Dry through the night
with lows ranging from the lower 70s in the city, to around 70
for most coastal areas, to the mid 60s well inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather continues on Sunday with subsidence and capping. H8
temperatures warm up to 17-18C, so anticipating highs in the
lower/mid 90s in the usual warmest spots in NE NJ, and mostly
upper 80s to around 90 away from the immediate south facing
coastlines.

Dewpoints near the the top of the mixed layer look low enough
for surface dewpoints to mix out at least a little during the
afternoon for areas away from the coast, even on a SW flow. This
will help keep heat indices below advisory thresholds. Dry for
Sunday night with patchy fog late.

The flow aloft remains anticyclonic during Monday, but less so
during Monday night as the remnant circulation from Chantal
approaches from the south. It probably remains dry through most
of the morning as the only notable lift available appears to be
from increasing instability, but held in check by mid-level
capping. Shower/thunderstorm chances would then begin thereafter
with mechanical lift joining in via a subtle shortwave(s) ahead
of Chantal`s circulation. Chances then continue through Monday
night with the remnant system even closer, but there`s not
enough confidence from the varying model solutions to go with
likely PoPs. Some guidance even suggests a narrow band of
subsidence forming over the forecast area between an approaching
cold front from the west and Chantal`s remnants from the south.
Please refer to the latest official forecast from the National
Hurricane Center regarding tropical cyclone Chantal.

Regarding temperatures and heat indices for Monday, H8
temperatures don`t change all that much from Sunday, but will
perhaps be slightly warmer. Even if this is the case, there
should be more afternoon cloud cover as compared to Sunday,
therefore anticipating slightly lower high temps for the most
part this time around. Surface dewpoints will be higher,
however. Boundary layer dewpoints increase with the approach of
Chantal`s remnants, making it difficult for surface dewpoints to
mix out. Right now it still appears that 1-day heat advisory
criteria will not be met. However, an advisory could still be
needed in a few areas for Monday-Tuesday based on 2-day
criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Despite the unsettled nature of the extended forecast, global
models were in fairly decent agreement, so the NBM was
followed.

A cold front will eventually move through the area and stall in
the vicinity Tuesday. On Tuesday, heights aloft will lower but
flow should remain fairly zonal with a subtle trough to the
west. Disturbances in the flow will traverse the area through
much of the middle of the week.

High pressure over the Western Atlantic will promote a general
S/SW flow which likely brings subtropical moisture up the East
Coast. The combination of several mid-level disturbances moving
through, a stalled surface boundary in the vicinity, and a
moist S/SW flow will allow for much of the extended portion of
the forecast to have a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall from
Tuesday to Wednesday morning. Showers and storms during this
period may produce locally heavy rainfall with some isolated
hydrologic concerns.

By the end of the week, more robust energy in the flow
approaches from the west and allows the trough to dig into the
Northeast. This will provide for a better opportunity for
showers and storms as well as a slight decreases in
temperatures. High pressure may try to build in from the
northeast by Saturday.

Despite chances for showers each day, high temperatures should
remain in the mid 80s through mid week, and upper 70s to lower
80s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR as high pressure remains offshore.

After southerly coastal sea breezes die down this evening, winds
should be S-SW less than 10 kt. S-SW winds redevelop after 12Z
Sunday, increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible
in the afternoon. A more southerly sea breeze should once again
make it to KEWR/KTEB late.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: Some fog with MVFR or IFR cond possible east of
NYC metro terminals after midnight.

Monday through Thursday: Mainly afternoon and evening
showers/tstms possible with MVFR or IFR cond. Highest chance
exists from late Mon through Tue evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through at least
Sunday morning. Some gusts close to 25 kt are possible Sunday
afternoon/evening on the ocean with seas climbing to around 4
ft. Sub-advisory conditions are then likely for Monday through
at least Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some tropical moisture may feed into the area Tuesday into
Wednesday which may allow for an environment supportive of
locally heavy rainfall. WPC has portions of the area in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall for this time frame.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip risk for all beaches will be moderate both Sunday and
Monday, given the southerly flow and increasing southerly swell.
Surf heights around three ft are likely over the period, but
may increase to near 4ft by Monday, especially across NYC,
Nassau and western Suffolk beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ005-
     009.
NY...None.
NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...