166
FXUS64 KOHX 220042
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
742 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 739 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

- Rain and thunderstorms are likely Sunday and Sunday night. Some
  storms could be severe during the late afternoon and evening,
  posing a threat for damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- There is an elevated fire weather risk tomorrow owing to low
  afternoon RH values. The elevated risk will likely repeat itself
  for much of next week as our rain chances after Sunday and
  Sunday night are scant.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Not much going on at update time. I freshened up the grids as
hourly dew points were running a bit lower than forecast,
otherwise things are pretty well on track. Still focusing on
Sunday`s severe threat and I`ll cover the latest with that in the
full forecast package at midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1029 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

A surface ridge is shifting across Middle Tennessee today, hence
the pleasant daytime warm-up and dry atmosphere that`s currently
in place. A weak shortwave will sweep across the region tonight
and will have zero impact on our weather. Tomorrow morning`s
temperatures will be several degrees warmer than this morning`s,
and we`ll also enjoy abundant sunshine on Saturday as the dry air
persists.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1029 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

The next active weather system will come through Sunday afternoon
and evening as a cold front makes its way across the region. The
surface low attached to this cold front will stay far to our
north, so there won`t be any wrap-around moisture or lingering
precipitation this time. Therefore QPF resulting from Sunday`s
fropa is well below 1" across the mid state. There is some severe
potential, however, with the primary threats being damaging
straight-line winds and large hail. The actual cold front will
sweep through between 00Z and 09Z Sunday evening/early Monday.
Given the lack of deep instability in the pre-frontal air mass, it
appears that the strongest storms will develop just ahead or
right long the surface boundary, and clearing behind the front
should be somewhat rapid. Air mass change following the fropa
won`t be very drastic; temperatures next week will stick close to
seasonal normals until about Friday, when we`ll start to warm up
to more springlike readings. Meanwhile, this morning`s widespread
freeze is going to be the last we see for quite some time here in
Middle Tennessee. The 6-10 day outlook favors near normal
temperatures across the mid state and the 8-14 day outlook favors
above normal temperatures. (For the record, the normal last
freeze in Nashville is March 29 -- a little later for surrounding
locales.)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period with SW winds
shift to the NW Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      46  66  45  74 /   0   0  20  60
Clarksville    43  63  45  70 /   0   0  50  80
Crossville     40  60  36  69 /   0   0  10  30
Columbia       43  67  42  73 /   0   0  10  50
Cookeville     40  60  39  70 /   0   0  10  40
Jamestown      41  60  36  69 /   0   0  10  40
Lawrenceburg   42  66  42  73 /   0   0  10  30
Murfreesboro   42  66  41  74 /   0   0  20  40
Waverly        43  65  46  70 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Cravens