413
FXUS63 KOAX 212304
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
604 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance (<20%) for rain across our far north this
  afternoon into the evening hours. Accumulations will be very
  light and only a few hundredths of an inch. Very high fire
  danger remains for this afternoon across portions of
  northeast and southeast Nebraska.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Knox, Antelope, and Pierce
  counties from 1pm to 8pm Saturday for low RH values and strong
  wind gusts. Scattered rain chances (15-30%) return to forecast
  area Saturday evening.

- 25-35 mph northwest winds return for Sunday, with gusts up to
  45 mph. This will lead to very high fire danger.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Saturday Night/

Our remaining snowpack from Wednesday`s storm system continues to
erode quickly today as evident from GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase imagery.
RAP objective analysis shows a 500 mb shortwave draped across our
forecast area this afternoon associated with a closed upper level
low across northern Ontario. At the sfc, a front extending from the
associate Ontario sfc low has pushed through the forecast area this
afternoon, resulting in some gusty northwest winds behind the front.
Expect gusts to range from 25 to 35 mph as we continue into the
afternoon hours. These winds in combination with low relative
humidity values in areas outside of the current snow pack (southeast
and northeast Nebraska), will lead to very high fire danger. People
in these areas should avoid burning. Some forcing is evident with
the aforementioned shortwave as a few scattered rain showers
are developing this afternoon, mainly across northern portions
of our forecast area. Expect this activity to move to the east
southeast tonight, but any accumulations from these showers
should remain light. Gusty winds will subside later tonight with
RH values also recovering to above 50%. Lows tonight will reach
the mid 20s to low 30s.

Saturday will see southerly flow return ahead of another shortwave
ejecting from the Wyoming/Colorado area. This shortwave will induce
a sfc low over South Dakota which will track east during the daytime
hours Saturday. Ahead of this feature, gusty southerly winds are
likely, given RAP BUFKIT soundings show decent mixing occurring up
into a 30kt 850 mb LLJ. The combination of drier air mixing down
with gusty 30-35 mph winds across northeast Nebraska will lead to
very high fire danger. In collaboration with neighboring offices,
have decided to issue a Red Flag Warning for Knox, Pierce, and
Antelope counties from 1 pm to 8 pm Saturday evening. Burning is
discouraged in these areas. High fire danger is also possible across
far southeast portions of Nebraska, despite technically not
meeting Red Flag Warning criteria there. Winds will decrease
slightly by the night time hours but remain breezy. The sfc
feature in South Dakota will drag along a cold front through the
area Saturday evening. This will result in chances for a few
scattered showers, but a dry layer evident in some soundings
across the area may hamper these chances. Currently have left
chances at 15-25% across most of the area, except for northern
portions of the CWA where some areas have a 30% chance given the
dry air is overcome enough to result in rain. Highs Saturday
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, while lows will be in the
upper 30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/

By Sunday, expect to see windy conditions behind the front. BUFKIT
soundings show ample mixing into a 30-40 kt LLJ. This will result in
sustained northwest winds from 25 to 35 mph during the daytime
hours, with gusts up to 45 mph across the far north. GEFS and EPS
ensembles clearly highlight these gusty winds, with the EPS being
noticeably more aggressive as some members show gusts at times
reaching 50 mph. Will need to continue to monitor the latest trends
to determine if a Wind Advisory will be needed for Sunday. The
strength of these winds and low RHs may also result in very high
fire danger for portions of the forecast area, and may warrant a Red
Flag Warning depending on how trends play out as we get closer to
Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 50s to low 60s across the
area with minimal cloud cover expected.

Northwest flow aloft will dominate the upper air pattern through at
least the midweek timeframe. Within this flow, a few shortwaves are
evident, notably on Monday evening and Tuesday. NBM PoPs show
anywhere from 15-20% chances for rain across our far northern areas
Monday evening, while Tuesday evening currently has the wave farther
east from our area keeping us generally dry into Wednesday.
Temperatures will be on a warming trend from Sunday through Thursday
as hinted at by the NBM, given a 1000-500 mb thermal ridge begins
developing across the western CONUS and eventually tracks eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

VFR conditions favored through the period with passing mid level
clouds into Saturday. Will need to keep an eye on potential fog
development overnight in the vicinity of remaining snow pack
(could impact both OMA and LNK), but guidance suggests it will
remain pretty patchy if it does develop, so did not include
mention. Otherwise, gusty northwest winds will weaken early in
the period and become southerly overnight. Speeds pick back up
by mid-day, with gusts of 25 to 30 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for NEZ011-016-
     017.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...CA