089
FXUS63 KOAX 162256
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
556 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 40-60% chance of storm development south of I-80,
  mainly after 10 pm. The strongest storms will be capable of
  gusty winds and perhaps some hail. Of greater concern is the
  potential for localized flooding.

- Additional rounds of storms are expected from Friday
  afternoon into the weekend. Severe weather will be possible at
  times, with the threat of flooding increasing with each
  successive round.

- Cooler on Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 70s, but we
  quickly warm back up with 80s Friday and mid 80s to lower 90s
  for the weekend. Temperatures may reach the upper 90s to
  around 100 degrees at some locations early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

     Remainder of this afternoon through Thursday...

Surface analysis and satellite data indicate the cool front
which moved through our area last night is currently situated
across northeast KS and northwest MO as of early afternoon. That
boundary will likely be the focus for surface-based storm
development later this afternoon. Prior to that occurrence, a
small band of showers and isolated thunderstorms has recently
formed along the south-central NE/north-central KS border, with
that activity drifting east-southeast. By late this evening into
tonight, the models suggest that modest low-level warm
advection atop the frontal surface will be sufficient to force a
west-to-east-oriented band of elevated thunderstorms across
portions of southeast NE and southwest IA.

Forecast soundings within the inflow air mass of the elevated
storms indicate moderate instability for elevated parcels,
amidst a kinematic environment featuring 30-35 kt of effective
bulk shear. Poor mid-level lapse rates are likely to modulate
updraft velocities despite MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, with a low-
probability risk (5-10%) for strong wind gusts and/or
marginally severe hail. Of potentially greater concern, is the
threat for localized flooding given the model signal for
regenerative/training thunderstorm development. Moreover, the
heaviest rainfall with last night`s MCS occurred across the same
parts of southeast NE that the models are predicting tonight`s
storm development.

Aside from the storm chances, we could see some increase in
wildfire smoke concentrations; the greatest of which will occur
aloft, and not directly affect surface conditions.

On Thursday, the cooler Canadian air mass currently
overspreading our area will be fully in place, with high
temperatures in the 70s; roughly 10-15 degrees below normal.
Some smoke could linger, but again, it`s expected to largely
remain aloft. We`ll see a brief break from precipitation chances
into Thursday night.


     Friday through the weekend...

On Friday, mid/upper-level zonal flow is forecast to strengthen
across the north-central CONUS in conjunction with a sheared
vorticity maximum translating along the U.S./Canadian border.
At the surface, a weak surface low is forecast to develop east
along the NE/SD state line, with the above-mentioned front
lifting north back into our area. Low-level warm advection
occurring along and south of that boundary will result in warmer
daytime temperatures, with highs bouncing back into the 80s.
Precipitation chances will once again increase, with the best
shower and thunderstorm potential existing in the vicinity of
the boundary, especially Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Model soundings near the boundary indicate an environment
supportive of a few strong to severe storms, in addition to the
continued risk for flooding rainfall.

The surface front is expected to linger in the area this
weekend, supporting additional shower and thunderstorm chances.
Some severe weather is possible, per the various ML-based
forecast systems. Flooding will remain a concern, especially at
locations that experience repeated thunderstorm activity. High
temperatures will range from low/mid 80s across the northern
half of our area to low/mid 90s across portions of southeast NE.


     Early next week...

The 12z global models are in reasonably good agreement in
showing the intensification of a subtropical high centered over
the lower MS Valley into Ozark Plateau region. Associated height
rises/ridging aloft is forecast across the mid MO Valley, which
will translate to warmer temperatures and potentially drier
weather. This forecast update will indicate as much, with highs
in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Some 100s are even possible along
the KS border. Generally dry conditions are forecast, though the
models indicate some precipitation potential by Wednesday in
association with a weak mid-level disturbance moving through the
west/northwest periphery of the upper high.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

MVFR conditions will continue over northeast NE, primarily over
KOFK, before gradually improving this evening. Conditions have
improved to VFR across southeast NE with a few mid-level clouds
sticking around. Winds this evening will remain out of the
north, gradually calming under 12 kts through the evening.

A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop across extreme southeast
NE this evening, likely in the 04-10Z timeframe. TSRA will not
be included in the LNK TAF at this time, as storms will likely
remain immediately south of the terminal. MVFR conditions are
expected to redevelop overnight, though confidence is low in how
widespread these conditions will develop. A brief period of
MVFR is expected at KOFK around 12-15Z, though confidence is low
that these conditions will spread far enough east to impact
KOMA and KLNK at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Wood