612
FXUS63 KOAX 090503
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1103 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-normal temperatures persist, with highs in the 50s and
  60s today, warming into the 60s and 70s on Monday. Dry and
  windy conditions on Monday will bring areas of very high fire
  danger to eastern Nebraska.

- Continued warmth increases the potential for river ice breakup
  and ice jams. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Platte,
  Elkhorn, and Loup Rivers.

- Periodic precipitation chances (15-40%) return late Wednesday
  and continue into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Tonight through Tuesday...

A pleasant afternoon is ongoing as upper-level riding remains in
place across the south-central CONUS. A warm front that moved
through the area earlier today has ushered in a renewed period of
WAA, allowing afternoon highs to climb well above normal into the
50s to mid 60s across east-central Nebraska. Southerly low-level
flow will return overnight and into Monday, supporting continued
warming with highs rising into the mid 60s to low 70s. These values
are roughly 30 degrees above early February climatological normals.
Record highs will likely be challenged on Monday, including Omaha
(63 degrees set in 1954), Lincoln and Norfolk (both 68 degrees, set
in 1954).

Pockets of very high to extreme fire danger are expected across
eastern Nebraska Monday afternoon as relative humidity values fall
in the 18-25% range. Southerly wind gusts will reach the 20-30 mph
range before a surface cold front moves through late in the
afternoon, shifting winds to northwesterly. Have opted to bump winds
up Monday afternoon, given that model soundings indicate 30-40 kts
at the top of the mixed layer. Recent HRRR/RAP model soundings have
trended towards much deeper mixing heights, potentially mixing
towards 10kft with 40-50 kts at the top of this layer and bringing
30-40 mph gusts to the surface. The currently blended winds keep us
just below Red Flag Warning criteria, though trends will need to be
monitored to see if additional adjustments and fire weather
headlines are warranted, particularly across northeast Nebraska. As
the front pushes through (late afternoon for northeast Nebraska/mid
evening for east-central Nebraska), RH will quickly increase, though
modest subsidence behind the front will also bring an initial push
of 20-30 mph northwesterly gusts.

Several shortwave disturbances will work to gradually damped the the
ridge, resulting in cooler temperatures within the post-frontal
airmass on Tuesday. High temperatures are expected to peak in the
40s, still approximately 10 degrees above average.

Additional concerns through the next few days will be the potential
for ice jams as continued mild temperatures promote river ice
breakup and movement. This increases the risk for ice to become
lodged and cause sudden rises in water levels. Accordingly, a Flood
Watch will remain in effect through Monday evening for the Platte,
Elkhorn, and Loup Rivers. River gauges and observational reports
will be monitored closely through this period.

Wednesday and Beyond...

From Wednesday through the remainder of the work week, generally
zonal flow aloft will persist across the region as a series of weak
disturbances pass through. Afternoon highs will largely remain in
the 40s to low 50s, with overnight lows falling into the 20s to low
30s. These disturbances will bring periodic precipitation chances,
with 15-30% PoPs returning late Wednesday and continuing into the
weekend. Despite the extended stretch of PoPs, dry periods are
expected to be more common than wet ones.

Available moisture and forcing for ascent with these systems appears
limited, with the NBM indicating only a 40% probability of at least
0.05" of QPF through the work week. However, with overnight lows
frequently falling below freezing, precipitation type will need to
be monitored, as periods of light rain and snow are both possible.
Long-range guidance suggests the potential for a more robust system
to move across the central and southern Plains next weekend, though
confidence in details remain low. Model consensus and run-to-run
consistency continue to vary, with some solutions tracking the
system across the southern portion of the forecast area and other
keeping it entirely to the south. At this time, only about one-third
of EPS/EPS-AIFS and GEFS/AI-GEFS members bring the system into the
area, with 30-45% PoPs in place across southeast NE and southwest
IA. Trends will continue to be monitored as the system approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period with passing clouds in the FL200-250 layer. Light south
winds persist overnight with LLWS developing for a few hours at
KOFK and KOMA, beginning at 12z. Winds become southwest by late
morning into afternoon at 12-13 kt with gusts of 20-22 kt. Winds
switch to northwest at 12-13 kt with higher gusts Monday evening
as a cold front moves through the area. Another period of LLWS
appears likely at KOMA beginning at 10/00z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through Monday evening for NEZ016-017-031>033-
     042>045-050>053-067.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Mead