733
FXUS66 KMTR 270601
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1101 PM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 116 PM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Cool temperatures, breezy winds, and some light rain are expected
through the next couple of days, with more intense systems expected
Sunday through the early part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 116 PM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Satellite imagery is showing lingering stratus across the North Bay,
the San Mateo Peninsula, the Monterey Bay region, and the Gilroy-
Hollister region. Light rain and drizzle have been reported across
the region, but most prominently in the coastal areas and along the
windward side of the coastal ridges. Zoom out the satellite image
and it also depicts a large, intense mid-latitude cyclone centered
around 600 miles to the west of Cape Blanco in southern Oregon,
expected to continue heading eastwards. While the Pacific Northwest
is preparing for heavy rain and possible severe hail from this
system, our region won`t see impacts that dramatic. Light rain
develops across the Bay Area and the Santa Lucia mountains this
evening into Friday, with the bulk of the rainfall expected tonight
and Thursday. Most of the potential rainfall from this initial
system will be concentrated on the higher elevations, with 0.25-1"
of rain expected across the coastal ranges, locally up to 2" in the
Mayacamas, 0.1-0.25" in the North Bay valleys, and up to 0.1" across
the Bay Area. Across the Central Coast, the coastal edge of the
Santa Lucias will see around 0.1-0.25" of rain, but most of the
region will be lucky to see any measurable precipitation. Breezy and
gusty winds will accompany the rain, with gusts during the day
reaching 20-25 mph in the valleys and up to 35 mph at the
ridgelines.

Today`s high temperatures rise to the upper 60s to lower 70s in the
inland valleys of the Bay Area and Central Coast, the lower to
middle 60s in the North Bay valleys and along the bays, and the
middle to upper 50s in the coastal regions. The inland valleys drop
a little further to the middle to upper 60s on Thursday, but the
rest of the forecast region should see highs similar to today`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 116 PM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025

After a quick break late on Friday into Saturday, which will feature
some clearing of the skies across the region, another modest shot of
rain arrives late Saturday night into Sunday as a second low
pressure system develops somewhere off the West Coast, with showers
lingering into Monday. Rainfall totals range around 0.1-0.5" across
the region, with higher totals possible in the coastal ranges and
especially the higher elevations of the North Bay, while totals will
be lower across the traditional rain shadowed regions (for example,
the Santa Clara Valley and interior Central Coast).

The more impactful system is expected to arrive in the earlier part
of next week, as the first week of April looks to be a wet one.
Another upper level low will approach the West Coast on Tuesday, and
while the general pattern remains relatively flat, the trend in the
ensemble models has been towards bringing a stronger system into the
region. The ensemble model cluster analysis still shows a split
between a troughing pattern and a ridging pattern on Tuesday, but on
Wednesday, they coalesce onto more of a trough pattern. The American
GFS ensemble model seems to favor a stronger trough, and thus a
wetter solution than the European or Canadian ensemble models. All
in all, the impacts are still highly uncertain. In addition,
ensemble model means do show another system developing in the latter
part of next week. By next Friday, an multi-ensemble analysis
suggests that SFO could receive anywhere between 0.5" to 3.5" of
rain, with the mean around 1.5" to 2".

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025

A weak front continues to move into the area. MVFR/IFR clouds will
accompany the rain chances and linger behind the front. Additional
light rains and drizzle move through the area in the mid morning and
last into the afternoon. Winds stay southerly and southwesterly
through the night and into Thursday morning before turning slightly
more westerly. Another push of showers arrive in the North Bay
Thursday evening and work their way south into the late night.


Vicinity of SFO...MVFR CIGs last into Thursday afternoon. Breezy
southerly winds continue through much of the night with light rain
chances exiting into early Thursday morning. Additional shower
activity is expected in the mid morning, but looks to be more
spotty. CIGs scatter into Thursday afternoon with some passing
showers and breezy southwest winds. Shower activity exits into that
evening as winds reduce. Another line of showers arrive further into
the night and exit later that night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO

Monterey Bay Terminals...Expect light winds through the night with
MVFR CIGs filling around the terminals in the late night along with
some mist. MRY looks to see some spotty drizzle into Thursday
morning, affecting visibilities. CIGs lift into late Thursday
morning as moderate westerly winds arrive. Additional rains arrive
into the late afternoon and last into Thursday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Winds will stay moderate to breezy through the night before
turning southwest and strengthening to a strong breeze across the
waters Thursday. Seas will also deteriorate with widespread rough
seas beginning early Thursday morning. Rough seas continue into
the weekend with unsettled conditions to persist into next week as
a series of storm systems move through the region.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1119 AM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Thursday morning, a new incoming swell will generate large
breaking waves up to 30 feet, in addition to enhanced rip
currents. Inexperienced swimmers should stay out of the water.
Beachgoers should maintain a further stand-off distance from the
water than normal. Stay off of jetties and rocks, keep pets on a
leash, wear a life jacket, and never turn your back on the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 11 AM PDT Friday for
     CAZ006-505-509-530.

     Beach Hazards Statement from 5 AM PDT Thursday through Friday
     morning for CAZ529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for
     Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60
     NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10
     nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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