242
FXUS64 KMOB 090009
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
709 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 705 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

 - HIGH rip current risk continues through tonight for coastal
   Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

 - Patchy dense fog is possible overnight into the pre-dawn
   hours over the next several nights.

 - Strong to Severe storms with large hail possible Monday
   afternoon and another round of severe storms possible Wednesday
   night into Thursday morning.

 - Near Gale force sustained winds and frequent gale force gusts
   possible over the open Gulf Waters Wednesday night into
   Thursday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Where to start as it looks to be a rather busy week in the weather
department as a couple systems will bring strong to severe storms,
fog and gusty winds to the area throughout the week.

Rest of Today...Scattered showers and light stratiform rain has
persisted along coastal Alabama this morning in the wake of last
nights storms. Some scattered redevelopment of showers and maybe
a storm or two is expected across interior portions of the area
this afternoon; however, we have significantly reduced rain
chances as overcast skies and subsidence in the wake of the
morning storms has kept things mostly in check compared to what
was originally expected. Temperatures will likely be held in check
in the low to mid 70s by increased cloud cover and any locations
where temperatures do increase will likely see those scattered
showers this afternoon.

Synopsis...As the subtle shortwave that brought the storms last
night and today weakens and lifts off to the northeast, upper
level ridging will attempt to nose in from the southwestern Gulf
as a rather large upper level low meanders over the Baja
Peninsula. This upper low feature will be important later in the
week but more on that later. Embedded in the upper flow will be a
subtle but present shortwave trough that will quickly progress
across the Tennessee Valley on Monday into Monday afternoon.
Moisture will quickly return tonight in advance of this system and
surge northward leading to a rather quick recovery. As with any
night in early spring with the moisture comes the fog and we once
again expect another round of dense fog for much of the area
tonight. A subtle surface boundary that is likely left over from
this morning storms will lift north tonight towards the highway 84
corridor. As ascent increases ahead of the shortwave trough,
scattered to likely showers and thunderstorms should develop along
this lifting boundary. If you have read enough of our discussion
you probably know what we are about to say next but never trust a
warm front in spring. A few storms could be strong to severe
during the afternoon on Monday and more details on that threat can
be found below. By Monday night the upper shortwave will progress
eastward and ridging will quickly build Tuesday into Wednesday as
our upper level low starts its trek eastward across Mexico and
into central Texas. As the upper low moves east, it will interact
with a rather deep upper trough digging out of Canada and into the
central US. These two systems will be our big event later in the
week and certainly a system to keep an eye on. Upper level lows
can be pesky and tend to be a leading cause for aspirin intake
for meteorologist as models tend to struggle with how they move.
As a result timing and exactly how the system will pan out on
thursday is still a bit up in the air. However, given the overall
consensus and setup its likely going to rain sometime wednesday
night into Thursday and someone somewhere in the deep south could
have a rough night. Good news is that once this system moves
through things should dry out and cool off as a cold front moves
through the area Thursday and upper troughing sets up over the
eastern US through the weekend.

Monday Severe Storms...A rather subtle but possibly sneaky setup
for tomorrow afternoon as the aforementioned upper shortwave zips
across our area. As mentioned moisture should recover quickly
overnight ahead of the upper jet and a subtle boundary should
setup along or near the highway 84 corridor. Looking at ensemble
soundings across this region and 1000 to 2000 J/Kg of ML CAPE
should develop along the boundary in the afternoon with deep
layer shear increasing to around 35 to 40 knots. This should be
supportive of supercells and supercell clusters that will likely
develop across central Mississippi and drop south and east along
the highway 84 corridor during the afternoon and early evening.
With storm relative winds (SRW) around 18 to 20 knots in the
lowest 1 km, updrafts will likely remain small and favor mini
spinnies before clustering up into one or two more dominant right
moving supercells and or bowing segment. Weaker SRW, deeper
equilibrium levels, and strong cape in the hail growth zone all
support the potential for larger hail with any updrafts that form.
Hail will likely be the predominant threat and would not be
shocked to see a report or two of golf ball (1.75") to hen egg
(2") sized out of the stronger storms. Damaging winds could also
be possible especially if the overall mode morphs into a bowing
segment or cluster. As for the tornado threat, it will be low but
not zero as we have mentioned to never ever trust a boundary.
Surface winds will be a little backed for my liking but with
miniature supercells and some weak curvature of the hodograph as
we head into the afternoon we may be able to squeak out a tornado.
The main key here will be the need for cell interactions as
profiles will be rather moist and with weak storm relative winds
the balance required to get a tornado is going to be rather tricky
to achieve. IF it would happen it would likely happen earlier in
the afternoon before cells become more beefy and too much cell
interaction occurs. If storms along the boundary can interact or
"nudge" each other then we certainly cannot rule out a tornado or
two. By the early evening, storms should move east of our area and
begin to weaken as afternoon instability weakens.

Wednesday night Severe Storms...Now for the bigger of the two
events as our pesky upper level low begins to move across the
eastern US Wednesday night. I`m not going to go into too much
detail over this system as there is still a lot to iron out but
the overall signal certainly is one that perks the ears up a bit.
Looking at the overall evolution of the system supports a rather
stout upper jet and broad area of upper diffluence to spread
quickly east across a rather moist airmass Wednesday through
Thursday. Ensemble CAPE values support a rather large warm sector
across the southeast and a increasing low level jet associated
with the upper low. At this range our best tool are the machine
learning and analog guidance. Taking a gander at those we
certainly see a signal for a period of strong to severe storms
Wednesday into Wednesday night with some of the better analogs
supporting the potential for a little more potent setup across
the deep south. However, as mentioned above with some
discrepancies in the placement and timing of the upper low,
little changes can move where the best severe weather potential
ends up being. For now we will just keep an eye on this system as
we move past Monday. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Low ceilings return this evening with LIFR to VLIFR conditions
expected overnight as dense fog develops. Conditions gradually
improve Monday morning with MVFR conditions expected. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

A light to moderate southeasterly to southerly flow continues
through the weekend and into the middle of this week. Dense fog
remains possible near the coastline for the next several nights.
Small Craft conditions are likely by Wednesday night into Thursday
night. Guidance has begun to highlight a potential for near
sustained Gale force winds and frequent Gale force gusts possible
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as winds turn
northerly behind an advancing cold front. A round of strong to
possibly severe storms will also accompany the cold front as it
moves through the marine zones Wednesday night. Winds will
gradually diminish Thursday night into Friday as they turn
easterly. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      64  80  66  82 /  20  20  10   0
Pensacola   65  76  67  77 /  20  10   0   0
Destin      64  74  66  75 /  20  10   0   0
Evergreen   61  81  62  84 /  20  60  20   0
Waynesboro  62  80  64  84 /  10  60  10   0
Camden      61  79  63  82 /  10  60  20  10
Crestview   61  81  63  82 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT Monday for GMZ630>636-650-655.

&&

$$