082
FXUS64 KMOB 212315
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
615 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Now through Saturday Night...
Dry conditions and a warming trend will occur through the
remainder of the week as a 1022mb surface ridge persists across
the northeast Gulf. A light mainly southerly to southwesterly wind
flow will also continue through the near term.

Lows tonight will be chilly (about 2 to 6 degrees below normal),
ranging from 40 to 45 degrees inland, 45 to 50 degrees along the
coastal communities, with lower to middle 50s at the beaches and
barrier islands. Highs on Saturday will be balmy (up to 5 degrees
above normal), ranging from 75 to 78 degrees inland, and from 68 to
74 degrees along the coast. Low temperatures Saturday night will be
about 6 degrees warmer across the board compared to Friday night. /22

Sunday through Monday...
An upper-level trough over the north central US will move across
the Great Lakes region Sunday night into Monday. This will allow
for zonal flow aloft to become more west-southwesterly throughout
the day on Sunday. Two shortwaves appear to approach the area
during this period: one rounding the base of the upper trough to
our north, and the other being a southern stream trough lifting
from the Gulf. At the surface, a weakening cold front is expected
to move through the area during the day on Monday. Looking off to
our west, forcing from the northern trough aloft and the front at
the surface will allow for thunderstorms to develop and
potentially organize into an MCS. As the MCS begins to approach
our area Sunday night, it is expected to enter into a much less
favorable environment. Forcing seems to become rather out-of-
phase/disjointed as the northern upper trough begins to interact
with the southern stream trough. In fact, 500mb flow aloft starts
to become more confluent and 850mb winds turn northwesterly
(giving way to backing winds in the 850-700mb layer).
Additionally, low-level moisture return appears to be meager at
best, with dew points only reaching the low 60s and the best
theta-e values remaining offshore. Forecast soundings also suggest
very poor lapse rates from the surface up to nearly 3km during
the overnight hours. Although lapse rates do improve above 3km to
give way to some weak, elevated instability, storms moving through
the area during the overnight hours will likely not be surface-
based. Therefore, with these factors working against the MCS, I
would anticipate the MCS to weaken once it enters the area. Gusty
winds (and maybe some small hail) cannot be ruled out, especially
as it enters our southeast Mississippi counties, but the weakening
trend should lower the overall strong/severe storm risk the
further east it goes. By the late morning hours, there is some
spread in guidance as to if the remnants of the MCS push offshore
or linger along/east of the I-65 corridor. If it does linger,
lapse rates do improve (giving way to CAPE values over 1000 J/kg)
and a few storms may attempt to redevelop along the remnant
boundary. Deep layer shear remains around 50 knots (low-level
shear is much weaker) and is mostly unidirectional. This could
lead to some gusty winds or small hail in some of the stronger
storms that do manage to develop. We start to dry out during the
afternoon hours as the front/remnant outflow finally gets pushed
offshore. /96

Monday night through Friday...
High pressure builds in behind the front, bringing drier
conditions to the local area for the remainder of the period. Not
expecting any hazards through this period, although lower humidity
values may bring some fire concerns. Winds, however, should
remain light. Highs will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s each
day and lows will generally range from the upper 40s inland to the
mid 50s over coastal counties. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

VFR conditions continue through Saturday. A southwesterly flow
around 5 knots or less is expected by early this evening which then
becomes light and variable overnight. A westerly flow around 5
knots prevails over interior areas on Saturday, while closer to
the coast a southerly to southwesterly flow at 5-10 knots develops
by early afternoon. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 412 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Light southwesterly to westerly flow will continue through
Saturday, followed by a light onshore flow Saturday night into early
next week. A weak cold front approaching from the northwest on
Monday is expected to settle near the coast around Monday evening.
Ahead of the front, chances of showers increase late Sunday night.
Showers become likely Monday morning with a few thunderstorms mixed
in. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      46  76  52  76  60  75  53  79 /   0   0   0   0  50  70  10   0
Pensacola   50  72  56  74  62  75  57  76 /   0   0   0   0  20  70  10   0
Destin      52  70  57  72  62  73  58  75 /   0   0   0   0  10  70  10   0
Evergreen   40  77  45  79  56  75  49  80 /   0   0   0   0  50  70  10   0
Waynesboro  41  78  49  81  58  75  48  81 /   0   0   0   0  70  50  10   0
Camden      42  75  48  80  58  73  47  80 /   0   0   0   0  60  50   0   0
Crestview   40  77  45  77  56  76  51  79 /   0   0   0   0  30  70  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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