050
FXUS62 KMLB 170613
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
113 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 609 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue across portions of
  the waters tonight before becoming more favorable into midweek.
  A High Risk for rip currents persists at area beaches.

- Isolated onshore-moving showers along the coast will remain
  possible. Otherwise, mostly dry through tomorrow.

- A gradual warm-up forecast through the rest of the week, with
  temperatures becoming above normal by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Rest of Today-Wednesday...Showers embedded within marine stratocu
have overperformed slightly so far this afternoon. Therefore, have
added in a slight chance (20%) for showers along the coast. Inland
areas expected to remain mostly dry. However, A stray shower may
occasionally linger into interior areas before diminishing. Dry
air and a strong inversion above 850 mb are expected to continue
to limit the threat for any lightning. Overnight lows are forecast
in the mid to upper 50s inland, while coastal areas remain in the
60s. Patchy fog and/or low clouds will be possible overnight,
mainly over the interior and especially along and north of I-4.
Fog may become locally dense at times near sunrise. Use caution
during the Wednesday morning commute.

High pressure off of the Southeast US coast will maintain a ridge
axis north of east central Florida Wednesday. Onshore flow looks
to continue, becoming increasingly easterly. While dry air aloft
is expected to linger, it appears there will be enough moisture in
the marine stratocu layer to maintain the threat for onshore-
moving showers into Wednesday night. PoPs continue around 20% at
the coast (30-40% offshore), with inland areas still seeing
mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will increase by a few
degrees, reaching the mid to upper 70s in the afternoon. Overnight
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday-Friday...Southerly flow develops Thursday, ahead of an
approaching cold front. Higher moisture will advect northward
through the day, with PWATs increasing to near 1.4-1.5" by the
afternoon. Rain chances are forecast to respond accordingly, with
scattered showers (PoPs 3-40%). Poor lapse rates and dry air aloft
will continue to limit the threat for lightning. By Friday, low pressure
moving through southeastern Canada will drag the aforementioned
cold front into east central Florida. Northwesterly winds will
advect in drier air once again, with no mentionable PoPs over land
areas through the daytime hours. High temperatures will rise to
above normal for late week, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Saturday-Tuesday (modified previous)...Front will shift south of
the area and fade into the weekend, with high pressure building in
behind this boundary and pushing off the southeast U.S. coast.
This will quickly veer winds onshore, with highs remaining mostly
above normal (in the upper 70s to low 80s most locations) through
early next week. May see isolated showers over the waters that can
push onshore through the weekend, but otherwise it looks to
remain mostly dry. The most noticeable change will likely be the
overnight lows, which are forecast to dip into the 50s for much of
the area Friday night into the week. A few locations are expected
to see upper 40s well north of I-4 Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 126 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Unfavorable boating conditions will
continue to improve into tonight, as seas subside. Until then,
seas up to 7 ft will remain possible in the Gulf Stream through
this evening. However, seas up to 6 ft are forecast to linger
through the overnight. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for
portions of the Gulf Stream waters through 10 PM, though small
craft will need to exercise caution overnight. Onshore flow around
15 kts or less persists through the period. Isolated to scattered
onshore-moving showers will remain possible.

Wednesday-Sunday...Somewhat favorable boating conditions through
the weekend. Onshore flow Wednesday will veer southerly into
Thursday, ahead of an approaching cold front. The frontal passage
on Friday will bring northerly winds, with look to quickly veer
onshore again into the weekend. Winds generally around 15 kts or
less, though a brief period of 15-20 kt winds are forecast near
the frontal boundary Thursday night into Friday morning. Seas in
the Gulf Stream are expected to respond, building to 6 ft.
Otherwise, seas 3-5 ft through the period. At the very least, it
appears small craft will need to exercise caution offshore
Thursday night into Friday. Isolated to scattered showers will
remain possible through Friday over the Atlantic waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1237 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

Continuing to monitor potential for fog/stratus impacts at KMCO
and other inland ECFL terminals. Latest HREF continues 10-30%
chances for IFR reductions, but NBM chances have dropped
considerably to less than 10% at KMCO and around 20% at KLEE.
Given low confidence/chances, only have MVFR reductions in the
KLEE TAF and all other inland TAFs continue VFR, but short-fused
AMDs may be needed if fog/stratus manages to develop, which could
also linger into the late morning. ISO onshore moving showers
bringing brief IFR VIS and MVFR CIGs will remain possible through
the TAF period. Confidence where/when these will develop is very
low, and will need to play VCSH/TEMPOs by ear. Highest chances
(such as they are around 20%) along the coast, but there are very
low (around 10%) chances to reach the inland terminals.
Otherwise, VFR conditions. Winds N-NE 5 kts or less inland and
E-SE 5-10 kts along most of the coast tonight settle to ENE- ESE
5-10 kts, up to around 10 kts along the coast in the afternoon,
then become light again late this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  62  78  63 /  20  20  40  50
MCO  76  61  81  66 /  10  10  40  40
MLB  76  64  80  66 /  20  20  40  50
VRB  76  64  81  66 /  20  20  40  50
LEE  75  59  80  64 /  10  10  40  50
SFB  76  60  80  65 /  10  10  40  40
ORL  75  61  80  66 /  10  10  40  40
FPR  77  64  81  66 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Haley