Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
131 FXUS63 KMKX 270307 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1007 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Period of showers and a few thunderstorms expected later Thursday night into Friday morning. - A warm front is expected to move north through the area Friday and stall over central Wisconsin Friday night into Saturday. Highs may reach the upper 60s to middle 70s Friday, and lower to middle 60s Saturday. - Showers and few thunderstorms are possible at times Friday night into Saturday morning, with better chances for rain Saturday afternoon into Sunday. A mix with or change to snow is possible Sunday night into Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued 1000 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 A forecast update (to be published shortly) will delay the arrival of rain chances for southwestern WI overnight (roughly 3 hours or so) to account for the latest radar trends. Overall chances for rain between now and mid Thursday morning remain 15 to 45%, with the highest chances in far southwestern Wisconsin. Model guidance is beginning to arrive for the late Thursday night / Friday morning showers and thunderstorms, driven by WAA. Initial indications are that these showers / weak storms will arrive a few hours after Midnight Thursday night, then move clear of the area mid Friday morning. Sheppard && .SHORT TERM... Issued 330 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Tonight through Thursday night: Skies will gradually become mostly cloudy tonight, with some 700 mb warm air advection shifting southeast through the area later tonight into Thursday morning. This may bring a period of rain showers to at least western parts of the area. Kept the 30 to 50 percent PoPs for now for these showers. Lows tonight should be warm enough to allow for all rain showers. Skies should become partly sunny by Thursday afternoon, with light winds becoming southeast later in the day. Highs in the middle 50s are expected, cooler near Lake Michigan. More focused and deeper warm air and moisture advection kicks in Thursday night, as the warm front moves north toward the area. This should be enough upward vertical motion to bring a period of showers and a few thunderstorms to the area. Wood && .LONG TERM... Issued 330 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Friday through Wednesday: The warm front will push north into the area Friday, stalling out over central Wisconsin Friday night, before sagging southward on Saturday back south through the area. There should be gusty south to southwest winds that develop in the warm sector airmass south of the front over a good part of the area Friday afternoon. This should allow for some sunshine and warm temperatures into the lower to middle 70s, even near Lake Michigan. Far northern parts of the area may be cooler with more clouds closer to the front. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to be possible Friday night in northern parts of the area, before spreading back south on Saturday with the sagging cold front. Continued to bring in progressively higher PoPs (into the 60 percent or higher range by Saturday) as a result. SPC has central Wisconsin in a Day 3 Marginal Risk for severe storms, which appears appropriate given the best upward vertical motion with the low level jet will be in that area. Cannot totally rule out some hail Friday night in far northern parts of the area. Ensembles are suggesting that the low track for Sunday into Monday will remain to the south of Wisconsin, with the GEFS coming more in line with the EPS and Canadian ensembles. This track would be more favorable for rain to mix with and perhaps change to snow Sunday afternoon into Sunday night or Monday across the area. There is still uncertainty with timing of the low track, and we will see if this track remains consistent with the ensembles in later forecasts. A period to watch for as we get closer to the weekend. Wood && .AVIATION... Issued 1000 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Mid to high altitude clouds maintain overcast coverage overnight (around 10 kft). Ceilings gradually lower towards 4 to 5 kft towards daybreak Thursday, but remain VFR. 15 to 40% chances for light rain overnight, with the highest chances in far southwestern Wisconsin. Light southwest to south winds on Thursday will become southeast by later in the afternoon. Skies should scatter out during the afternoon as well. Sheppard && .MARINE... Issued 330 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 High pressure around 30.3 inches will continue to shift southeast of the region tonight. Winds will become south to southwest tonight, and west into Thursday morning. A weak cold front will sink south over the lake and wash out on Thursday, bringing south winds over the southern half of the lake, and north to northeast winds over the northern half. Winds will then come around to east to southeast and become breezy Thursday night into Friday morning, as a warm front approaches the lake from the southwest. These winds will shift southwest as the warm front moves northward across the lake Friday, stalling out over central to northern portions of the lake Friday night. The front will shift south on Saturday, shifting the gusty winds to the northeast behind it into Saturday night. Gusty northeast to north winds are then forecast for Sunday into Monday, as low pressure around 29.5 inches passes near the far southern portions of the lake. For the nearshore waters, Small Craft Advisory level winds and waves are possible Friday into Friday night, and again from Saturday into early next week. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee