963
FXUS62 KMFL 202308
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
608 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

    - Windy conditions will develop across the region today.
      Northeast winds this afternoon could gust up to 30 mph along
      the east coast.

    - Hazardous marine conditions will continue for the Gulf and
      Atlantic waters today into Wednesday as winds and seas
      remain elevated.

    - Temperatures will continue to moderate for the middle to the
      latter portion of the week and shower chances will gradually
      increase during this time frame.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 247 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

No big changes were made to the previous forecast. Strong high
pressure over the eastern U.S. is creating a stronger pressure
gradient leading to stronger winds, which will linger through
tomorrow. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail through Wednesday.
Temperatures are expected to be in the 70s across the region today
and tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 138 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

A rather broad mid level longwave trough encompasses a good portion
of the eastern half of the country today and this trough will
generally remain in place through the middle of the week. At the
surface, a strong and expansive area of high pressure will continue
to slide eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic States as well as the
Southeast today. This area of high pressure will gradually shift off
into the western Atlantic heading into Wednesday. At the same time,
a lingering frontal boundary will remain parked over the Bahamas
and this boundary extends southwestward into the Carribean Sea.
As the area of high pressure to the north shifts offshore, the
lingering frontal boundary will slowly start to lift back
northward towards the Florida Keys on Wednesday.

With strong high pressure to the north combined with the lingering
frontal boundary to the southeast today, this will keep the pressure
gradient tight across the region and it will allow for windy
conditions to develop throughout the day. As high pressure
continues to shift further eastward today, this will allow the
winds to veer as well and become northeasterly as the day
progresses. Winds gust of 20 to 25 mph will be common across a
good portion of the area, and there remains the potential for
wind gusts up to around 30 mph along the immediate east coast this
afternoon. While breezy conditions will persist into Wednesday,
these winds will gradually be diminishing as the afternoon
progresses with the strong high to the north shifting further
offshore.

While many areas will remain dry across the region today, as the
lingering frontal boundary start to shift closer to the region on
Wednesday and the winds veer and become more east northeasterly,
gradual lower level moisture advection will start to take place.
This will allow isolated to scattered showers to return to the
forecast mainly over the Atlantic waters as well as the east coast
metro areas on Wednesday afternoon. Most of the shower development
will remain rather low topped and fast moving along the breeze,
however, a brief heavy downpour cannot be ruled out with the
stronger showers. High temperatures today and Wednesday will be on a
moderating trend as winds veer during this time frame. While high
temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 70s across most areas
today, mid to upper 70s will be common across South Florida on
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 138 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Heading into the second half of the week, broad mid level troughing
remains parked over the region while mid level ridging remains
centered well off to the south over the Carribean Sea. At the
surface, the latest global and ensemble guidance has come into
better agreement with keeping a weak frontal boundary parked over
the region or just nearby to the south during this time frame.
Weak high pressure will remain just off to the northeast over the
Atlantic. The combination and location of these two features will
help to keep east northeasterly wind flow in place during this
time frame allowing for plenty of lower level moisture advection
to take place as well. While the frontal boundary will be in a
very weak state, it will provide just enough lift and instability
across the region to increase the chances of showers during this
time frame. While shower activity will remain scattered in nature,
there may be just enough instability in place to support an
isolated thunderstorm or two on Thursday and Friday. The highest
chances of thunderstorm development will remain along the east
coast as well as the Atlantic waters where instability will be
maximized. High temperatures will continue to moderate as they
will rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s across most areas on
Thursday. Heading into Friday, high temperatures will hover around
80 across the east coast metro areas, while lower to mid 80s will
remain possible across the interior sections of Southwest
Florida.

Looking ahead towards the upcoming weekend, the mid level ridge over
the Carribean Sea will build northward over the region on Saturday
before gradually shifting into the western Atlantic on Sunday. This
is in response to an amplifying mid level trough well off to the
northwest slowly digging southeastward. At the surface, the
remnants of that very weak frontal boundary will gradually start
to lift to the north and eventually wash out. However, there will
be enough moisture in place to support a slight chance of showers
over the east coast on Saturday. The next frontal boundary could
move into Northern and Central Florida during the second half of
the weekend and into early next week, however, plenty of
uncertainty remains in place due to this being towards the end of
the forecast period along with plenty of model disagreement in
regards to timing of the front. With the front remaining well to
the north through Sunday, many areas will remain dry during this
time frame. High temperature over the upcoming weekend still look
to be above climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions expected to continue during the next 24 hours at
all terminals. east-northeast winds gusting to 25 kts will
decrease to around 10kt after 02-03Z, then becoming gusty again
and shifting more easterly after 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic and
Gulf waters today and tonight as fresh to strong northerly winds
shift and become northeasterly throughout the day. While winds will
slowly diminish across the Gulf waters on Wednesday, fresh to strong
northeasterly winds will continue across the Atlantic waters. Seas
across the Gulf waters will generally range from 4 to 6 feet through
tonight before gradually subsiding on Wednesday. Seas across the
Atlantic waters will continue to build and range from 8 to 11 feet
today through Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 138 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Due to developing strong onshore wind flow combined with an
increasing northeasterly swell, a high risk of rip currents will
develop across the Atlantic Coast beaches today. The high risk of
rip currents will likely remain in place across the Atlantic
Coast beaches through the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            65  75  68  79 /   0  10  20  30
West Kendall     60  76  64  81 /   0  10  20  30
Opa-Locka        63  76  66  80 /   0  10  20  30
Homestead        65  76  68  80 /   0  10  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  66  74  68  78 /   0  10  30  40
N Ft Lauderdale  65  74  68  78 /   0  10  30  40
Pembroke Pines   63  76  66  80 /   0  10  30  30
West Palm Beach  64  75  68  78 /   0  10  20  30
Boca Raton       65  76  68  79 /   0  10  30  40
Naples           55  78  62  80 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...17