565
FXUS64 KMEG 212319
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
619 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

- Low relative humidity values are expected to persist into
  Saturday.

- There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms along and south
  of Interstate 40 Sunday afternoon and evening. Primary severe
  weather risks will be large hail and damaging winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Surface analysis this afternoon places a 1025 mb high near the
Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, a cold front
stretches from the Upper Midwest back through the Central and
Southern Plains. Drier air has mixed down again this afternoon
with relative humidity values dropping down to near 20 percent.
This dry airmass combined with elevated 20 ft winds have resulted
in red flag conditions across areas mainly west of the Mississippi
River this afternoon. Temperatures as of 3 PM CDT are in the
middle 50s to around 60 degrees.

The aforementioned cold front will drop into the Lower
Mississippi Valley tonight with no rain expected. Temperatures
won`t be as cold as last night with lows in the 40s. Highs on
Saturday will moderate back into the middle 60s to lower 70s as
the cold front retreats back north as a warm front Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night. This dry airmass will result in
minimum relative humidity values dropping to 25 to 30 percent on
Saturday.

Short-term model trends indicate low-level moisture will begin to
increase late Saturday night into Sunday ahead of another cold
front that will move through the Mid-South on Sunday. This front
is expected to move slowly as better upper-level forcing moves
east into the Ohio Valley. Model soundings indicate an elevated
mixed layer will develop during the day with MLCAPE values
increasing to 500-1200 J/kg across the region. This instability
combined with steep mid-level lapse rates, 0-6 km shear around 40
kts, and nearly unidirectional layer winds favor mainly a large
hail and damaging wind threat Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening. The quality of instability may limit the threat to some
degree towards Sunday evening as instability begins to decrease
across the area.

Operational and ensemble long range models indicate the next
chance of rain won`t arrive until towards the end of late next
week when another mid-level trough moves through the Mississippi
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

VFR conditions continue across the airspace. Gusty, SW winds will
begin to subside in the next few hours. By tomorrow morning, light
winds will prevail, shifting from SW to N/NE by the afternoon,
before returning to SE near the end of the current TAF period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CMA