276
FXUS64 KMAF 270535
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1235 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1235 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

- Rain chances increase this afternoon and continue through Friday
  morning. A few storms could be strong to severe, producing
  gusty/damaging winds and hail, mainly in West Texas west of the
  Pecos.

- There is medium to high (50-70%) confidence for many locations
  receiving at least a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain
  during this period. Higher rainfall amounts will be possible
  with stronger storms.

- High winds will be possible, mainly in the mountains, Saturday
  afternoon through Sunday night, and Tuesday night and Wednesday.
  Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Saturday, but
  this is conditional and dependent on rainfall (or lack thereof)
  over the next couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Mid to high level clouds streaming west to east earlier this morning
have scattered out into continued broken high cloud cover, with
isolated cumulus and reflectivity over elevated higher terrain
apparent on VIS/Water Vapor RGB Satellite imagery and radar. The sub-
tropical cirrus plume is associated with moisture ahead of an upper
level, positively titled open wave in the mid-troposphere extending
from Desert SW into Baja CA, depicted in both deterministic and
ensemble forecast runs. WPC Surface Analysis depicts a weak quasi-
stationary front farther north and east of the CWA stretching from
the TX PH into Central Oklahoma, with a retrograding dryline over W
TX. This dryline is forecast to retrograde farther today and develop
into a lee troughing feature, as dew point temperatures in the 40s
and 50s F advect westward into Eddy County Plains and west and
southwest of the Davis Mountains under sustained southeasterly near
surface flow east of the feature, and southwesterly near surface
winds west of it. Forcing at the surface will be weak, so the main
forcing will be farther aloft, with convective initiation itself
initiating largely from heating of elevated terrain. Shear in
deterministic models increases throughout today, mainly as a result
of high winds above 50 knots in the upper troposphere with the
approaching aforementioned short wave, as ensembles show 0 to 500 mb
shear below 25 knots, and deterministic forecast soundings show
winds below 30 knots well up to the 500 mb level, while depicting
shear from 200 to 850 mb in the 60 to 80 knot range. Instability in
forecast soundings and ensembles for today is in the 500 J/kg to
1000 J/kg range. All of these factors will be sufficient for a
damaging wind and hail risk in the strongest storms, but the SPC has
outlined most of the area in a general thunderstorm risk, with a
marginal farther south and east of the CWA over S TX closer to the
greatest lift, shear, and moisture associated with a mid to upper
level disturbance that will be traversing that region. CAMs show
showers and storms initiating over Davis Mountains and remaining
mainly southwest of Pecos River and Permian Basin today. Highest
rain chances 40% to 60% this afternoon through evening are from the
Stockton Plateau into Terrell County, with another 40% to 60% chance
of rain indicated over Eddy County Plains into Upper Trans Pecos
late this evening. However, nonzero PoPs are present everywhere
across the forecast area today, with lowest PoPs below 15% to 20%
over Western Low Rolling Plains. PWATs above 90th percentile
climatology in the 0.80 to 1.10 inch range will allow for efficient
precipitation processes and resultant heavy downpours where stronger
showers and storms occur.

With scattered to overcast cloud cover for most of the area today
limiting diurnal heating from direct solar radiation, highs only
come out 5 to 10 degrees above average, mid 70s higher elevations to
lower to mid 80s elsewhere in NBM and coarse-res deterministic and
ensemble models, while high-res deterministic models such as the NAM
and HRRR show highs in the mid to upper 80s across portions of SE NM
plains into western Permian Basin and Big Bend. All ensembles depict
zero probability of highs above 89F today even over the Big Bend.
Tonight, humid southeast near surface winds east of lee troughing
and rain chances persist, with highest chances 40% to 60% from
Presidio Valley into the Davis Mountains as well as Upper Trans
Pecos into SE NM plains, and tapering off below 40% range northeast
of this region. With widespread cloud cover limiting diurnal
heating, lows in NBM only fall into lower 50s to lower 60s range
tonight in NBM, about 15 degrees above average. A 10% to 30% chance
of lows falling into the lower to mid 40s F is present over Davis
Mountains and surrounding foothills.

Tomorrow, showers and storms remain in the forecast. A higher severe
risk is present, with SPC outlining Terrell County into Stockton
Plateau and Upper Trans Pecos into SE NM plains in a marginal risk
and Terrell County in a slight risk. While the risk will remain
primarily damaging wind and hail, a chance of tornadoes is also
indicated over Terrell County. Ensembles show higher CAPE in the 750
J/kg to 1100 J/kg range as well as 0 to 500 mb shear up to 30 knots.
Highest instability and shear is still forecast to remain farther
south and east across S TX where the greater severe risk will be
located. PWAT remaining above climatology will again allow for heavy
downpours. PoPs 40% to 50% are indicated over most of W TX by mid
afternoon through evening, then PoPs begin to trail off into the
evening from northwest to southeast into the 30% to 50% range from
Davis Mountains into Permian Basin and points southeast as upper air
forcing moves away to the east and less humid air moves in. As the
rainfall event winds down, storm total rain everywhere is forecast
be at least a few hundredths of an inch of rain in NBM grids, with
ensembles showing mean accumulation of 0.30 to 0.75 inches, spread
up to 0.50 inches, and both NBM and ensembles showing highest
accumulations over Brewster County into southern Stockton Plateau,
and amounts above 0.25 inches in more humid air southeast of Davis
Mountains into Upper Trans Pecos and Eddy County Plains. This will
not be sufficient to reduce ongoing drought conditions, but will
help to reduce fire risk and presence of drier, looser topsoil in
the short term. Scattered to numerous showers and storms and ensuing
cloud cover will limit diurnal heating even more tomorrow, with
highs only rising into the mid 60s to mid 70s, near to 5 degrees
below average. Tomorrow night, drier air with less cloud cover
allows more radiational cooling, with temperatures falling lower
into the mid 40s to lower to mid 50s F range in NBM, and more
generally in the 50s areawide in higher-res models, still up to 10
degrees above average for this time of year. A 10% to 30% chance of
lows falling into the lower to mid 40s F is present over Davis
Mountains and surrounding foothills. Even with decreasing cloud
cover and rain chances, dew point temperatures stay above 40F as
light southeasterly winds persist for a while longer. However, drier
conditions are on the way. More on that in the long term
discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Friday, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are forecast to be under
dry, northwest flow aloft on the backside of the exiting trough.
Subsidence and increasing thicknesses will result in a modest
temperature recovery, with highs averaging ~ 10 F above normal.

Meanwhile, the next trough is set to make landfall on the west coast
Friday night.  Leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of this
feature will induce increasing westerly flow across the higher
terrain and Southeast New Mexico, with downslope warming adding a
degree or so to Friday`s highs.  High winds look to develop in the
mountains, complimented by BLDU.  These unseasonably warm
temperatures will leave single-digit relative humidity over most of
the area Saturday afternoon, with CIPS SGPWO guidance suggesting
this could be a critical fire wx day.  That said, most all of this
will depend on how much QPF transpires over the next 48 hours.  NASA
soil moisture products indicate West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
are the driest parts of the entire country at the moment and, with
QPF decreasing with each forecast, chances are increasing that at
least some part of the area (west of the Pecos?) will be in critical
fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon.

High winds in the mountains may continue into Sunday as a Pac front
pushes through shaving 2-3 F off Saturday`s highs, but keeping
temperatures above normal.  Monday, models backdoor a weak front
into the area, but it doesn`t look to make it to the Pecos attm,
w/the net result bringing highs in the Permian Basin/Western Low
Rolling Plains down to around climatology.  This cool spell looks to
be brief, as temperatures rebound Tuesday/Wednesday to the 80s/90s
most locations...around 10 F above normal, as another trough approaches.
High winds may redevelop in the mountains Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR conditions, with periods of MVFR CIGS are expected throughout
this TAF period. Showers/thunderstorms are possible (40-80% chance)
by mid-morning through early evening during the day Thursday. Have
left out of TAFs as this activity will be convective and
showers/storms are hit or miss at all TAF sites. Probability of
precipitation looks to drop off drastically by the very end of this
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  53  85  60 /  70  50  10   0
Carlsbad                 75  49  87  57 /  50  40   0   0
Dryden                   73  55  87  59 /  70  60  10   0
Fort Stockton            74  54  89  60 /  70  50  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           70  52  77  56 /  50  30   0   0
Hobbs                    72  49  84  54 /  70  40   0   0
Marfa                    72  47  82  52 /  60  50   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     69  52  85  59 /  70  50  10   0
Odessa                   70  53  84  59 /  70  50   0   0
Wink                     73  52  90  55 /  60  40   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...55