730
FXUS64 KLZK 210006
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
606 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 127 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

-Very dry air remains and will keep the wild fire threat elevated
 again this Tuesday.

-Warming and some increased moisture will be seen by mid- week
 with some rainfall returning to the forecast Wednesday.

-A storm system is expected to move through the region late this
 week and into the weekend. Confidence continues to increase that
 this system could bring some widespread wintry precipitation to
 the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

To begin the period, calm and dry conditions are expected Tuesday as
surface high pressure takes control of the weather pattern. The
frontal boundary that moved through yesterday has ushered in drier
air meaning min RH values Tuesday afternoon are forecast to drop
into the 20s. With surface winds out of the south around 5-10 mph
and gusts slightly higher...an elevated wild fire danger will once
again be possible Tuesday afternoon.

The pattern will begin to break down again late Tuesday into
Wednesday as another disturbance is expected to track across the
state. This will bring increased rain chances across portions of
central and southern Arkansas. With that said, a complete washout is
not expected and rainfall totals are expected to stay below half an
inch. Highest rainfall amounts on Wednesday will likely be across
southern Arkansas.

Another period of calm weather is expected Thursday as the frontal
boundary pushes away from the state. This will once again be short-
lived as the next storm system will affect the state Friday into
Sunday, bringing the chance for widespread winter weather.

Model guidance continues to suggest accumulating snow and/or
freezing rain are possible across much of the state Friday through
early Sunday. This along with plummeting temperatures could create
hazardous road conditions this weekend and into early next week.
While it is still too early to pin-point exact snowfall totals right
now, one thing is for sure...the ingredients and model data trends
supports the idea of a winter storm affecting much of the state
later this week.

With that said, models continue to diverge some on exact timing and
precip type for parts of the state so forecast details are still
likely to change over the next couple of days. However, now could be
a great time to start preparing for wintry precip later this week as
it continues to look more and more likely for the state.

Temperatures will continue to be average to slightly below average
early in the period with highs in the lower 40s to upper 50s and
overnight lows dropping into the lower 20s to upper 30s.

As we transition to Friday and the weekend...temperatures are
currently forecast to become dangerously cold as cold air from
Canada pushes south Friday and lingers into early next week. This
will be in conjunction with the moisture associated with the weather
system meaning the cold air could be in place as the moisture tracks
across the state. All this to say, if the snow falls as currently
forecasted there could be a period between Friday to Monday
afternoon where many locations around the state struggle to get
above freezing at all. Even overnight temperatures could drop into
the single digit and teens.

However, nothing is set and forecast details could continue to
change has updated data continue to arrive. Please check back over
the next few days for the latest and most up-to-date information.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail during the first half of the forecast
period. After 09z, MVFR ceilings will prevail, with IFR ceilings
expected to develop across the southeast 1/3 of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conds are expected overnight with CIGs becoming MVFR on Wed as
SHRA/RA move across the state. Best chance PoPs will be over Cntrl
and SE half of AR. Srly winds will become W/NW in the afternoon
and evening Wed. Wind shear was mentioned at all locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     45  31  54  28 /   0  50  60   0
Camden AR         51  35  53  40 /   0  30  90  40
Harrison AR       48  31  52  26 /   0  30  10   0
Hot Springs AR    48  34  54  35 /   0  50  80  10
Little Rock   AR  47  33  52  33 /   0  40  80  10
Monticello AR     50  38  52  42 /   0  10  90  50
Mount Ida AR      50  35  56  34 /   0  50  70  10
Mountain Home AR  47  29  53  25 /   0  30  20   0
Newport AR        43  30  52  30 /   0  50  70  10
Pine Bluff AR     49  34  51  37 /   0  20  90  30
Russellville AR   48  32  55  29 /   0  50  50   0
Searcy AR         45  28  52  28 /   0  50  70  10
Stuttgart AR      45  33  50  36 /   0  30  90  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday
night for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-
062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-
221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...70