048
FXUS64 KLUB 212308
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
608 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

 - Breezy and very warm weather continues Saturday with heightened
   fire danger across the region.

 - Continued dry with mild conditions through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Modest WNW flow aloft continues this afternoon in the wake of a
departing upper shortwave well to our east, with surface flow now
northerly across our area behind an early-day front. Winds have
already begun to slowly weaken as of 18z, and will continue to
diminish and become more easterly through the evening hours as broad
surface ridging settles over Oklahoma. This will result in a calm
and seasonably cool overnight period with lows in the mid 30s to low
40s area-wide. On Saturday, a quick-moving shortwave trough will
transit over the southern Rockies which will deepen a fairly broad
lee surface trough over northeastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles.
Models are still not in perfect agreement regarding how far south
the surface trough will eventually settle and how much it will
ultimately deepen, which results in some uncertainty regarding wind
speeds for Saturday afternoon. The highest confidence in breezy
conditions with winds of 15 to 25 mph is currently over the far SW
TX Panhandle, with hi-res consensus favoring lighter winds over the
remainder of our area with some locations potentially seeing winds
remain under 15 mph through most of the day. Although elevated fire
weather conditions are a near certainty across the region on
Saturday afternoon and critical conditions are likely in spots,
there is still not enough confidence in where the strongest winds
will establish to upgrade any locations to a Red Flag Warning with
this forecast issuance, and we will therefore maintain the ongoing
Fire Weather Watch for Saturday afternoon with no changes at this
time. Regarding temperatures on Saturday, downslope surface flow and
a well-defined low level thermal ridge will result in a very warm
day, with highs expected to reach into the 80s across the entire

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

A cold front is expected to push through the region early Sunday
morning. Fire weather concerns are possible Sunday with breezy north
to northeasterly winds following the front while temperatures,
although will slightly cool Sunday, highs will be above seasonal
averages. Mild weather conditions are expected the first half of
next week as upper ridging develops over western CONUS. Highs for
Monday and Tuesday will be well above seasonal average. Another cold
front will push southwestward through the FA late Tuesday through
early Wednesday morning. This FROPA will bring breezy northeasterly
winds and slightly cool temperatures into the 70s. Could see low
level moisture return as winds shift from the south later in the
week although lift will be weak so confidence in thunder chances is
low. Low chance of fire weather conditions is possible with the
return of moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Light and variable winds will continue through midday Saturday
before increasing out of the SW thereafter. VFR will continue.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...19