Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
862 FXUS64 KLUB 052252 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 552 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 547 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 -Patchy fog is a possibility for much of the area early tomorrow morning. -Temperatures climb into the 90s Today and Sunday with decreasing rain shower and thunderstorm chances. - Isolated to scattered storms remain Sunday through Tuesday. Later in the week, rain chance decrease and temperatures warm. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 H500 ridging remains parked over the southwestern USA with upper troughing moving through the mid-west resulting in continued north-northeaserly flow aloft across South Plains. At the surface, high pressure remains fixed across the same area with resultant deep easterly surface flow locally. Continued moisture advection and the passage of a weak upper mid level disturbance rounding the northern portion of the mid level ridge will support isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the South Plains and extreme southern Texas Panhandle late this evening into the overnight hours. Storms will initiate across the eastern NM mountains and head SE into the FA. However, with 500mb temps remain relatively warm and near -5C storms will likely struggle to develop. Hi-res models tonight have precipitation near the NW portions of the area just shy of 06Z. Despite the warm 500mb temps, ingredients (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s and HREF mean SBCAPEs of near 1000 J/kg) will be in place for a storm or two to become strong if they can initiate. The main impacts will be strong winds, locally heavy rainfall. SPC has included areas northwest of Lubbock in a marginal (1 out of 4) risk for this activity. Tonight`s low temperatures will fall into the mid 60s to low 70s area wide with mostly cloudy skies. Just like we experienced this morning patchy fog will be possible tomorrow morning across much of the area. Have gone ahead and added this to the initialized NBM given high enough confidence . Sunday thunderstorm chances will remain very low, primarily favoring the higher elevations of eastern NM once again and moving SE into the NW Southern Texas Panhandle during the latter part of the afternoon/evening thanks to the continued moist and moderately unstable airmass in place. Strong solar insolation under mostly sunny skies will aid in temperatures climbing towards to 90F mark across the entire area. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Still not much change to the extended forecast. An upper high developing over Baja and northern Mexico will push northward into Arizona and New Mexico providing northerly flow aloft here locally. Temperatures surface and aloft will gradually warm. Mainly afternoon/evening storm chances remain in the forecast through Tuesday as pockets of mid and upper atmospheric moisture from storms generated in the higher terrain of New Mexico and Colorado rotate around the high southeast into our area. By Wednesday, winds aloft are forecast to become drier and more northeasterly in direction eliminating the pockets of upper moisture. With less cloud cover, afternoon highs will warm to the mid and upper 90s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 547 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Mostly VFR conditions are expected at all terminals this evening. While there remains a chance for VCTS, primarily at KPVW and KLBB, confidence in coverage of storms remains very low and does not warrant a TAF mention at this time. Similar to yesterday we could see MVFR/IFR CIGs threaten the terminals, although not as dense, patchy fog and low clouds will be possible across the Caprock after midnight through mid- morning. Thereafter, conditions are expected to improve back to VFR. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...12