097
FXUS65 KLKN 162039
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1239 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
1237 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

* Strong southwest winds in Central Nevada today and Tuesday

* A series of storm systems will impact Northern and Central
  Nevada this afternoon through Wednesday evening, and Thursday
  afternoon into Friday

* Snow levels will drop to the valley floor early Tuesday morning

* Winter driving conditions likely on all roads Tuesday night and
  Wednesday morning

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)

Strong series of upper level troughs on approach to Nevada today
will bring strong winds, rain, and snow across the state through
Friday. Strong southwest winds have developed across central and
northern Nevada ahead of the first upper trough which is currently
over California. Winds of 25 MPH to 35 MPH with gusts up to 55
MPH will be possible today lasting into the morning hours with
patchy areas of blowing dust possible. Because of this, a wind
advisory in effect across central Nevada through Wednesday
evening. Precipitation from this upper trough will begin this
evening with a winter weather advisory in effect starting at 4 PM.
For the valleys and passes, thanks to the warm temperatures of
the last few days, precipitation will start as rain.
Unfortunately, this winter models have not handled the timing of
precipitation change over to well, showing a cold bias in forecast
temperatures. Current projections show a change over occurring
overnight between 10 PM and 2 AM, which matches the timing of the
heaviest precipitation. If timing is any later the bulk of the
precipitation with this first wave may well be rain/snow mix for
elevation below 6000 ft. After a brief lull, wave two will push
into Nevada Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. This wave
looks to be the strongest wave, and colder than the first. Snow
levels by Tuesday morning will have dropped to the valley floors
and precipitation type with this wave looks to be all snow. This
second wave has trended a bit south over the last few runs with
central Nevada looking to pick up the most accumulations with this
second wave. Overall valley snow totals have come down a bit due
from previous runs due to warmer temperatures and lower overall
QPF in the models. Between this evening through Wednesday,
northern Nevada valleys could receive between 0.10 and 0.50 of
water, of that 1 to 5 of snowfall. N NV passes could see between
2 to 6 of snow, while mountains see all snow with up to 12 to
24 of snow. Central NV Valleys could see between 0.20 to 0.60
of water of which 2 to 6 of snow could fall, US 50 Passes could
see between 3 and 8 of snow with central NV mountain seeing up
to 2 feet of new snow. After another brief lull a third upper
trough looks to pass through Nevada Thursday evening through
Friday. Current model forecast show this system to be the drier
than the previous two, with overall QPF ranging between 0.05 and
0.35. Good news is this will be in the form of snow with an
additional 1 to 3 for the valleys and 2 to 6 for the passes
and range summits. For next weekend a shortwave ridge will serve
to quiet things down, but models show the potential for a fourth
upper level storm system moving in for next Monday bringing more
chances for rain and snow for the west.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence in the chances for strong southwest
winds with local areas of blowing dust this afternoon and evening.

There is moderate confidence for lower elevation rain, mountain
snow showers tonight changing over to snow across Nevada Tuesday
morning

There is moderate to high confidence in a second stronger system
moving through Nevada Tuesday evening into Wednesday with snow
accumulation in the valleys of 1 to 5, Passes seeing 2 to 8
and mountains seeing between 1 to 2 feet of snow by Wednesday
evening.

There is moderate confidence for a third system bringing light
snow showers Thursday into Friday.


&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are forecast through Tuesday morning. Strong winds
have developed ahead of an upper trough for KEKO, KELY, and KTPH.
Expected winds of S-SW20-30G35-45KT possible through 12Z Tuesday.
Other locations (KWMC, KBAM, KENV) in the north will see winds
S-SW15-20G35KT this afternoon. BLDU from the strongest winds could
produce reduced VSBY to one mile or less but confidence remains
too low to place in TAFs. VCSH is expected after 22Z across KTPH
and KWMC, and by 01Z Tuesday for KBAM, KEKO, and KELY.


&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST
Wednesday NVZ030-031-035>041.

Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST
Wednesday NVZ034.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday NVZ035-037-040-041.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98