910
FXUS64 KLIX 212338
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
638 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Aloft, a shortwave trough extended from Minnesota to northern
Louisiana, with weak ridging over the Rockies. At the surface,
high pressure was centered near Mobile. Louisiana and Mississippi
were essentially cloud free this afternoon. Temperatures across
the local area were generally in the 60s, with dew points ranging
from the 20s to mid 30s. Winds have come around to the south this
afternoon, but moisture will be very slow to return. It will take
until Sunday afternoon for precipitable water values on forecast
soundings to return to average levels for late March near 1 inch.

It will be tough to be much in the way of clouds until perhaps
late Saturday night, when forecast soundings indicate there may be
enough low level moisture to produce some low clouds or light
fog, mainly west of Interstate 55.

With low level moisture increasing slightly, dew points should
respond overnight, increasing into the 40s, and then into the 50s
for tomorrow and tomorrow night. This means low temperatures
tonight won`t be anywhere near as chilly as this morning.
Overnight lows tonight should be in the 40s and lower 50s for most
areas, and mainly in the 50s tomorrow night. Highs tomorrow will
be warmer than the last couple days, between 75 and 80 for most
areas. The immediate coastal will be several degrees cooler, as
current water temperatures are mainly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

A northern stream shortwave trough will move into the Great Lakes
Sunday and Monday with an associated frontal boundary moving into
the area. Skies will become mostly cloudy on Sunday, but much of
the area should remain dry during the day. Dew points will have
only recovered to around 60 degrees at that point. It currently
looks like the best opportunity for showers and storms will be
late Sunday night and Monday morning, although the operational
ECMWF solution is a bit quicker on precipitation than the American
models. Any significant threat of strong to severe storms appears
to be to the north of our area Sunday night, but the threat is
non-zero. Somewhat better instability conditions for surface based
convection on Monday, but the wind fields will be less favorable.

Beyond Monday, the main question will be regarding the frontal
boundary. The upper flow is expected to be northwesterly for much
of next week in either case. However, the GFS solution from the
12z run hangs the front up over the local area whereas the ECMWF
solutions have tended to carry it offshore. The main difference
between the two would be the ECMWF solutions are generally dry
from Tuesday through Thursday, while the 12z GFS leaves enough
moisture across the area for shortwaves moving through the upper
trough to allow for precipitation development, especially
Wednesday. This is a departure from last night`s runs. NBM
guidance keeps the forecast dry from Monday evening through
Thursday night, similar to the ECMWF. We`ll hold onto that
solution for now.

Temperatures for Sunday through most of next week are expected to
remain above normal, although not by much more than about 5
degrees or so. This would keep us mid 70s to lower 80s for highs,
and in the 50s and lower 60s for lows. Nothing unusual for our
area for late March.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies tonight and into tomorrow.
Radiation fog near the surface cannot be ruled out at MCB and
nearby inland terminals, but probabilities are low for
restrictions to VIS. Light southerly winds tonight with only
slight increase during daytime on Saturday with gusts to 10 to 15
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Considering it is late March, marine conditions aren`t going to be
as hazardous as they could be. There will likely be several
periods where winds could briefly climb into the 15 to 20 knot
range, especially over the western open waters, with the first
being around Sunday night. However, at this time, it doesn`t
appear conditions will deteriorate enough to justify a Small Craft
Advisory. Sea fog doesn`t appear to be a major concern in the next
few days, but water temperatures haven`t warmed enough yet to
totally preclude the possibility.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  78  54  80 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  47  80  57  81 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  48  78  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  52  78  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  49  73  57  74 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  45  76  54  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...RW