192
FXUS64 KLIX 060203
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
903 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025


.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Upper ridging is thus far keeping convection mostly at bay this
afternoon. With a lack of rain-cooled outflow, temperatures are
currently sitting in the lower 90s most locations and should rise
into the mid 90s across much of the area. Thankfully, dewpoints
are starting to come down a degree or two as daytime heating has
promoted vertical mixing. This has helped keep heat index values
generally in the 98-102 degree range thus far. Will likely see
those bump up another couple degrees before the afternoon is done,
but these values are fairly typical of summers on the Gulf Coast.
Any showers and storms that develop this afternoon should
diminish around or shortly after sunset, with overnight lows
forecast in the mid to upper 70s, which is a few degrees warmer
than normal most locations.

Tomorrow will see the start of a pattern change as the upper high
breaks down, being replaced by weak troughing between an upper
high over the southwestern CONUS and a second high building over
the western Atlantic. This weakness combined with an increase in
moisture will lead to an increase in afternoon showers and
storms. Whereas the POPs in today`s forecast were in the 10-30%
range across the area, we should see an increase into the 30-50%
range for tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

No significant changes to the forecast or forecast thinking going
into the work week. More active pattern should set up through the
week as the local area remains under the influence of a general
weakness or even weak troughing in the upper levels.

With the upper level weakness and increasing moisture, expect
convective coverage to increase through the week, with at least
scattered showers and storms driven by mostly diurnal heating
processes. By late in the week, an upper trough is forecast to dig
into the middle Mississippi Valley, which should result in a
further increase in convective coverage.

Regarding temperatures, the increase in showers and storms should
help bring afternoon highs down a degree or two, but that will
still keep them slightly warmer than normal at most locations.
Morning lows will similarly continue to run a couple degrees
warmer normal, only dropping into the mid to upper 70s each day.

As was mentioned yesterday, despite the higher rain chances
through the week, rainfall totals are still forecast to be
generally low with totals less than 2 inches forecast over the
next 7 days. However, as is the case with summertime
thunderstorms, localized totals could be substantially higher,
with some thunderstorms possibly producing 1-2 inches in a
relatively short period of time as they pass over any given
location.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 840 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Convection has died over the area and VFR conditions should not
persist through the night. Not anticipating much if any fog but
can`t completely rule it out in the typical problem areas.
Convection is expected to be a little scattered or even numerous
tomorrow afternoon and this will likely impact multiple terminals
with reduced vsbys and cigs. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Marine conditions will be benign through the period outside of any
localized impacts from convection. Light offshore flow will
persist through the remainder of today, but will become more
erratic tonight and then shift to a more onshore direction through
the work week. Expect convective coverage to increase through the
work week as moisture and instability increase across the region.
This convection should follow a typical diurnal pattern, with a
daily maximum across the coastal waters during the late night and
morning hours, and minimum during the afternoon and evening
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  93  71  92 /  10  40  20  60
BTR  75  94  74  93 /   0  50  20  70
ASD  72  93  72  93 /  20  40  20  60
MSY  79  94  77  93 /   0  40  20  60
GPT  73  92  74  91 /  10  30  20  50
PQL  71  93  72  92 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...DM