458
FXUS64 KLCH 190955
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
455 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front is anticipated today with low end rain chances

- Cool and dry conditions are expected for the second half of the
  week

- Thunderstorms are possible Sunday into early Monday with the
  next front. There is a slight risk for severe weather for
  interior SETX and SWLA

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will lead to a
quick warm up into the upper 70`s across much of the forecast
area. Although some low level moisture has been advected into
interior portions of the Gulf Coast, upper air analysis
illustrates a considerable dry troposphere above 1000m AGL. That
being said, as moisture convergence increases ahead of the frontal
boundary a few light showers cannot be ruled out before clearing
later this afternoon where winds will veer W-NW into the overnight
hours tonight. CAA behind the front will be noticed overnight
with lows dropping into 40`s and breezy conditions lingering
throughout Thursday. Despite astronomical spring starting the
20th, temperatures will remain below normal with overnight lows
falling into the upper 30`s across interior locations. Freezing
conditions are not expected, however. High pressure driving this
cool, dry continental airmass will broaden ESE across the Gulf
Coast to center over Florida by midday Friday. That will allow
onshore return flow to occur a slight moderation of temperatures
toward the lower 70`s.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Pattern continues to remain fairly benign and zonal keeping
conditions dry early Saturday as temperatures trend in the mid to
upper 70`s. A progressive shortwave is forecast to sink southeast
out Canada leading to increasing moisture advection locally.
Troughing across the Midwest will consolidate into a deepening low
pressure center to migrate toward the Great Lakes region.
Associated with the low pressure trough will be a frontal boundary
between the drier continental air over the Central Plains and the
relatively humid and more bouyant airmass across the South. At
this time, there remains an element of uncertainity regarding the
strength and forcing surrounding the frontal pattern. Therefore,
while the potential for a few strong storms is not out of the
question, the more favorable lifting mechanics are expected to the
north across ARKLATEX and the central Mississippi Valley. At this
time, chances for showers and storms have been left in the
forecast on Sunday until finer details come to be resolved. The
beginning of the following work week start off drying out with
seasonable temperatures under northerly flow aloft.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

South - southwesterly flow ahead of cold front will increase
cloud cover with CIGs nearing MVFR upper limits. Vicinity showers
cannot be ruled out, however, a significant dry layer in the lower
troposphere will limit potential for widespread or heavy showers.
Trending through early afternoon winds will gain SW-W components
and sharp decrease in dewpoints. Winds will continue to veer this
evening out of the NW with VFR conditions resuming behind the
front. Worth noting a layer of dust in central TX is following the
dry line and may reduce VIS across the area above the surface
this afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 450 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Seas continue to remain enhanced ahead of a cold front and
accompanying dryline will pass through the local area today with
light chances for rain. Seas will abate briefly, but remain choppy
with changing with a W-NW regime meeting southerly swells. High
pressure will build in behind the front this evening with a gusty
offshore flow to the coastal waters into Thursday. Another cold
front is expected early next week.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 450 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Chances for precipitation increase briefly this morning through
early afternoon before decreasing significantly this evening
along with RH as very dry air filters in behind the cold front.
Little rainfall accumulation is expected to occur followed by
continued dry weather for the remainder of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  41  63  37 /  20   0   0   0
LCH  79  45  66  42 /  30   0   0   0
LFT  79  44  65  41 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  82  45  69  45 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ450-452.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30