710
FXUS63 KLBF 220109
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
809 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire Weather concerns remain high through much of next week
  with critical conditions tomorrow and at least elevated to
  near-critical daily thereafter. Details pertaining to fire
  conditions can be found below in the Fire Weather discussion.

- A frontal passage on Saturday will lead to low-end
  precipitation chances favoring north of Highway 2. Little to
  no measurable rain is expected.

- Mild temperatures continue into next week while mainly dry
  conditions persist.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

While humidity recovery tonight will be very poor winds have
diminished considerably and will remain light overnight. Since
Red Flag conditions are no loner expected the Red Flag warning
this evening has been allowed to expire. The Fire Weather Watch
remains in effect for all of central and western Nebraska for
tomorrow. The remainder of the forecast is on track so no
significant changes planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Modest troughing continues to track east across the Mississippi
Valley with mid-level height rises and associated subsidence across
much of the region in its wake. Low-amplitude ridging extends across
the West Coast and into the central Pacific which is promoting
slight west-northwest flow aloft locally.

For Friday Night...shortwave ridging between departing trough to the
east and the approaching trough axis from the northwest will promote
quieting conditions. Modest high pressure will settle across the
Southern Plains but quickly behind this southerly flow will
redevelop and a strong low-level jet will take shape during the
latter half of the overnight hours. Some mid-level cloud cover may
linger across the area and this with the stronger flow may prevent
full decoupling. Overnight lows should hold in the upper 20s to
lower 30s, or approximately 5F above normal.

For Saturday...

The aforementioned disturbance from the northwest will track east
across the northern Rockies early Saturday. A lee-low will develop
somewhere near the I-90 corridor and track east through the latter
half of the day. This will propel a Pacific cool front south and
east through the area and allow for winds to increase once again as
they veer from the west to northwest. While moisture will remain
limited, another fgen and mid-level moisture could yield a few light
rain showers across our northern zones during the afternoon and
early evening. Forecast soundings depict ample dry air in a deeply
mixed boundary layer. Though mid-level saturation appears good, dry
low-level air will inhibit much if any rainfall from reaching the
surface. Because of this, little to no measureable rainfall is
expected. Lapse rates and/or instability appears insufficient enough
to promote any potential for thunder. Afternoon highs will climb
into the 60s with a few locations making a run at the 70F. Winds
ahead of the front will be strong as unidirectional flow through the
mixed-layer supports gusts of 30 to 40 mph and only a slight uptick
in the post-frontal environment with gusts climbing to around 45 mph
at their peak. Any threat for precipitation should exit the area by
late Saturday evening, leaving the overnight dry with lows again in
the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Sunday and beyond...Dry and mild conditions continue through much of
the extended forecast period. Broad upper-level ridging will develop
upstream by early in the work week. This will support continued
above normal temperatures as well as predominantly dry weather.
ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index paints positive anomalies for
temperatures creeping east towards the area in the day 5 through 7
period. This coincides with strong ridging setting up across the
Desert Southwest. As positive height anomalies arrive, little change
in the sensible weather is expected. In fact, extended EPS/GEFS
solutions suggest little potential for precipitation prior to late
week when guidance suggests the upper-level ridge breakdown begins.
So the pattern will continue to support fire weather concerns and
potential for headlines will need closely monitored. Late week with
the arrival of the main disturbance out of the northwest, expect an
end to our dry stretch for at least portions of western and central
Nebraska. Overall, EPS/GEFS suggest a surface low developing across
the Central Plains and tracking east into the Midwest. For now,
temperatures appear safely warm enough to preclude wintry
concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

VFR conditions with mainly mid/high clouds expected over
central and western Nebraska through Friday, though will have to
contend with strong gusty winds again Saturday.

Gusty winds this evening will diminish after sunset. Will
include a prevailing group for one hour after issuance to
capture any lingering wind before maintaining speeds below 10kt
through the overnight period. There will be a late surge in
winds aloft from the south but expect it will remain east of TAF
sites with no need for a mention of low level wind shear.

Once we get to sunrise and diurnal heating/mixing become
established, strong gusty winds from southwest/west will prevail
from mid/late morning through Friday afternoon. Given the dry
conditions and steep low level lapse rates there is an
opportunity for very deep mixing tomorrow afternoon with very
efficient downward momentum transfer. Will indicate robust gusts
for the latter portion of the valid period at or above 40kt at
KVTN and at or above 35kt for KLBF. A cold front will move
through TAF sites after this valid period with potential for
high based showers/thunder accompanied by strong gusty winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected to
persist over the next 36 to 48 hours. A Fire Weather Watch is in
effect for Saturday with potential for additional headlines
necessary next week.

For tonight...Winds will subside and back to the southwest as
modest high pressure takes shape to the south. While winds are
likely to be light, continued warm air advection and the dry
air will inhibit overnight recovery. In fact, multiple solutions
depict very poor humidity recovery tonight with peak values
only reaching the 35 to 45 percent range. So concern continues
overnight into Saturday.

For Saturday...given the low humidity start to the day, fire weather
concerns will get an early start. Southwest winds will gradually
veer to westerly behind a passing surface trough.
Downsloping flow within the dry airmass will boost afternoon highs
notably. Day-over-day change in afternoon highs will likely climb 10
degF with afternoon highs reaching the 60s and threatening 70 degF.
These values will range from 10 to 20 degF above normal for late
March. Deep mixing up to 2km AGL will allow strong mid-level flow
will efficiently mix to the surface. This suggests gusts in the 35
to 45 mph range. While afternoon humidity values may need meet the
traditional criteria of 15 percent, the concern is largely driven by
the strong winds and so will maintain the watch with belief that a
Red Flag Warning will be necessary. Later in the afternoon, a front
will approach our northern zones and introduce a wind shift as well
as the potential for light rain showers across our northern zones.
Confidence in measurable precipitation is quite low and
optimistically, a few locations may see a hundredth or so. While
activity should be showery in nature, soundings indicate modest
lapse rates and as a result instability and this should preclude dry
lightning concerns. Will need to monitor this potential closely.

Sunday and beyond...fire weather concerns continue, supported by
forecast above-normal temperatures and breezy winds each day.
Broad upper-level ridging develops upstream by the start of the work
week and the associated thermal ridge will likely remain in place
for much of the period before ridge breakdown begins around the
Thursday and Friday timeframe. In the meantime, the forecast looks
largely devoid of any appreciable rain chances and so little to no
relief is expected with regards to fire weather conditions.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBS
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...MBS
FIRE WEATHER...NMJ